Much
water has flowed down the Irrawaddy since March 2, 1962 when Burma's
Parliamentary democracy came to an end. The last 50 years have been
locust-eaten. Well almost. Repression, decay and isolation have been the order
of the day. However, the last 5 months have brought a sudden halt to its
downhill journey into the oblivion. Like a Tsunami, the waves of DEMOCRACY
seemed to have swept the shores of Myanmar.
Pundits,
Mandarins, uninitiated and ignorant alike are busy fathoming its effect on how
far it has affected the fortunes of erstwhile junta. It's both audible and
visible. There is chaos on the roads, confusion in minds, hope in hearts,
exuberance of youth, cynicism of old and guarded optimism of seasoned Burma-
watchers. But feelings of despair and helplessness of olden days are somewhat
missing. Amidst all this kerfuffle of contrasting views and interests, there is
the towering personality of Nobel Laureate Daw Aung Saan Suu Kyi. A
cult-figure, she enjoys tremendous popularity among local masses. In her
sixties, she seems to be more pragmatic now.
All
this has been made possible by the retirement of former junta strongman Than
Shwe and many other senior army officers. There is no way of knowing how much
power he still wields, safely ensconced in the picturesque Nay Pyi Taw ( Abode
of Kings ), the new capital of Myanmar since 2005. But many in this country
believe that Than Shwe may have retired but not faded away completely and is
still pulling the strings of power from behind. In fact, the incumbent
President owes his present position to Than Shwe.
Thein
Sein, a former Prime Minister, is an ex-general and member of Junta. He became
President in March, 2011 launching a nominally civilian government after the
controversial elections of November, 2010 from which Suu Kyi was excluded. His
government has released hundreds of political prisoners, signed cease-fire
deals with ethnic rebels, enhanced media freedom and relaxed censorship laws.
He presents a kind and gentle face of the ruling military regime in civilian
attire. He had a detailed meeting with Suu Kyi in August, 2011 setting the
reform process in motion. In his approach there is frankness for discussion to
build ways of including groups that have been in armed conflict with the
political process and expedite the reforms initiated by his government.
But
the process of rebuilding defunct civilian institutions, viz: a robust media,
active judiciary and functioning financial system is rather long and difficult.
The road of true democracy is full of pitfalls and potholes and its restoration
in Myanmar would depend on the mutual trust between various stakeholders, their
sagacity and resilience in the spirit of give and take for the greater good of
its 51 million people. It cannot be denied that due to its over five decades
rule, Tatmadaw ( armed forces) is the only organised institution left in the
country and unless they are fully on board the train of democracy will
not move. The best scenario would be a civilian government headed by Suu Kyi
with the full backing of the army. Once a parliamentary democracy is securely
established the army may return honourably to the barracks handing over the
reins of power to the elected representative. For the moment it looks like
wishful thinking but quite possible in distant future. There is no shortage of
‘spoilers’ though; for example the beneficiary of 2010 elections (USDP) and
‘corrupt’ elements in the army. But they may not be able to rock the boat in
view of vastly changed international landscape since the ‘Jasmine’ revolution
in Tunisia.
As
of now, the single most important task before the incumbent government in
Myanmar is the revival of its frail economy which after decades of stagnation,
mismanagement and isolation is in a pathetic shape. Luckily, in a positive
development the World Bank has agreed to support the reforms and
help analyze the country’s economic
infrastructure and banking and finance
sector crucial for attracting
investments. According to a report of IMF, Myanmar is going to be new economic
frontier of Asia but as things stand today, it looks like a pipe-dream. This
country requires massive investment for building its infrastructure: roads,
hotels, schools, technical institutions, hospitals etc. No investor will come
for charity. They will need to be reassured about safety of their investment
and profits which they hope to make. And for this to happen, a transparent
financial system fully backed by laws conforming to International standard
should be in place.
Right
now there is eager wait for April 1, 2012 by elections which is likely to elect
Suu Kyi and her NLD members to the Parliament. There are not many seats
to win, just 40 for the lower house of the Parliament less than 10% of the
total strength. But it would send a strong message down the line, if NLD makes
a clean sweep of these seats. The rulers may have to work-out an out of the box
solution to earmark a stellar role for Suu Kyi in the governance of Myanmar in
the post – April, 2012 dispensation. The
real game will commence only after the conclusion of the forthcoming by
elections. Let us hope that no one gets befooled in Myanmar this year on April
1, the day of by elections and a day celebrated all over the world as All
Fools’ Day.
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