So finally it is over. That is, the elections to UP and 4 other states touted by many as semi-final before the final is played in 2014 or even before if it's convenient to the title holders.
Like the IPL Cricket it gave livelihood to plenty, sound bytes to many, spread falsehood of some congenital liars, accorded knighthood on none and stardom to one. The star being Akhilesh Yadav, the new kid on the block. Matches are over, results are known and it is time for the post-mortem, better known as Chintan, Manthan or simple introspection.
Of the 5 states, UP with 403 Assembly seats and 80 Parliamentary seats attracted maximum attention. Rightly so! This is the state which has provided maximum Kings or King-makers to the Republic of India during last 64 years and may do so in the near future.
It was clear at the very early stage of electioneering that Mayawati afflicted by statue-mania, brazen corruption and Lucknow/Noida fixation will suffer huge loss. But it was not clear as to who will emerge victorious. The one-man army of Rahul Gandhi, the crown prince or Akhilesh a new face of refreshing innocence, assiduously mentored by the old warhorse Mulayam Yadav. He must have learnt some tricks of trade from the estranged uncle Amar Singh as well. While the former was handicapped by his deputies who were with him on the dais either for photo-ops, or for making shrill, sensational and desperate statements, the latter had the clear advantage of an active party cadre, a manifesto promising moon to everyone in the state and solid backing of a major chunk of Yadav and Muslim supporters.
An all-out attack on BSP's corruption led by Rahul Gandhi, BJP and others made things easier for his party. The near absence of organizational structure of Congress at the grass-root level to convert Rahul's hard work into votes and lack-lustre campaigning by local BJP leaders, smarting under the discomfiture, if not humiliation, caused to them by the import of Uma Bharti also helped SP as the non-committed voters who could have to gone either to Congress or BJP were driven in its welcoming arms.
An all-out attack on BSP's corruption led by Rahul Gandhi, BJP and others made things easier for his party. The near absence of organizational structure of Congress at the grass-root level to convert Rahul's hard work into votes and lack-lustre campaigning by local BJP leaders, smarting under the discomfiture, if not humiliation, caused to them by the import of Uma Bharti also helped SP as the non-committed voters who could have to gone either to Congress or BJP were driven in its welcoming arms.
One vital difference between the campaigning styles of Rahul and Akhilesh was their body-language. While Akhilesh Bhaiya, to a typical youth from UP struck as a friendly guy, like someone from their own stock and developed an instant rapport with them, Rahul Bhai appeared distant and somewhat on the glamour side. He was seen, heard but did not touch their hearts. His speeches highlighting Mayawati's corruption drew rapturous applauses only because he was stating a fact known to the audience. But when he wanted the crown of UP for his party they didn't oblige him. They knew very well that he is not interested in CM's chair and will not leave Delhi for Lucknow (the results of Amethi, Raebareli and Azamgarh are clear indicators). In these circumstances, Akhilesh appeared a safer bet to replace Mayawati.
But all is not lost for Rahul. Akhilesh may be the flavour of the season but it would be a tad difficult for him to sustain this phase for the next 2 years. UP is such a vast state with numerous intractable problems that once the dust of euphoria settles down, he will be fully bogged down tackling those (problems). Law and order will be his first big test. A majority of law- breakers (many of them now law-makers) also form his core support base and it may not be easy to convert them into non-violent monks overnight. There will be far too many expectations from him which he will find increasingly difficult to fulfill. Besides, people have a very short memory and tendency to get disenchanted very quickly is not unusual. Today's hero becomes villain in no time. Ask the Indian cricketers if there is any doubt. And it has been proven time and again on the Indian political landscape. Just remember the massive verdicts in 1971, 1977 and 1984 and what happened a few years after each of these. In UP itself the same people who put Mayawati on the throne 5 years ago by removing SP have brought them back to power in spite of her good record on law and order. The stink of corruption during her regime simply put them off.
The final in 2014 would be a different ball game altogether. Though many regional chieftains are smelling blood after Congress flop show, the prospects of a non-BJP and non-Congress government in Delhi are not very bright at the moment. Rahul Gandhi enjoys a distinct advantage over Akhilesh and many local satraps ruling in major states. Unlike many of them, he has a pan India image, is still young and has relatively unsullied image. What is missing in him is accessibility and humility, qualities so important for a politician to strike a chord with people. The bashful reluctance to open his mouth on major national issues is rather inexplicable. Instead of taking a firm stand on major issues either he keeps mum or proffers utopian solutions. This gives him an image of someone who is neither secure nor sincere. He has to make people trust him as a leader by reaching out to them not from the rostrum but face to face. Has to work really hard to enter the heart of the common man and earn their goodwill and affection. For this he will have to spend more time with the grass root workers from whom he can learn a lot about the ground realities. After all seeing is being different than being told. There is nothing wrong with Laptop; I-pad but there is no substitute to personal interactions with the party workers, because it is they who will fight the real battle. His party is full of leaders but they lack the mass-appeal at the national level. Some of them may manage to win on their own but they may not bring any substantial number of seats to the party kitty. This is something Rahul will have to do.
The final in 2014 would be a different ball game altogether. Though many regional chieftains are smelling blood after Congress flop show, the prospects of a non-BJP and non-Congress government in Delhi are not very bright at the moment. Rahul Gandhi enjoys a distinct advantage over Akhilesh and many local satraps ruling in major states. Unlike many of them, he has a pan India image, is still young and has relatively unsullied image. What is missing in him is accessibility and humility, qualities so important for a politician to strike a chord with people. The bashful reluctance to open his mouth on major national issues is rather inexplicable. Instead of taking a firm stand on major issues either he keeps mum or proffers utopian solutions. This gives him an image of someone who is neither secure nor sincere. He has to make people trust him as a leader by reaching out to them not from the rostrum but face to face. Has to work really hard to enter the heart of the common man and earn their goodwill and affection. For this he will have to spend more time with the grass root workers from whom he can learn a lot about the ground realities. After all seeing is being different than being told. There is nothing wrong with Laptop; I-pad but there is no substitute to personal interactions with the party workers, because it is they who will fight the real battle. His party is full of leaders but they lack the mass-appeal at the national level. Some of them may manage to win on their own but they may not bring any substantial number of seats to the party kitty. This is something Rahul will have to do.
There are still 2 years left and if within the next six months he is able to pick up and short-list about 300 good candidates who are bright, honest, hard-working and mostly from the local ranks, he would have done 25% of his job. The remaining seats he can leave to the party high command. The putative candidates can be asked to go in the field and work for the next 12 months in the respective areas. Six months before the elections their inputs will provide the agenda for the party manifesto. But before all that he has to show his bona fides and what better way than to get some of the things agitating the minds of average Indian sorted out. Lokpal Bill, Black Money, Women's Reservation bill, FDI in retails with necessary safeguards, infra-structure projects etc. are such issues which will be the real game changers. Policies which promise to ameliorate the pathetic conditions of farmers/lower and middle classes across the board need to be framed and implemented. If you work for the people, the party benefits. More than anything else your Neeyat (intention) will be under public gaze. And it is high time, that Dr. Manmohan Singh is given a free hand to tackle these matters. Do not forget he still carries the image of an honest and competent person and given full authority can repair his bruised reputation in next 2 years provided he does not have to carry an albatross of inertia around his neck. Between them, he and Pranab Mukherjee can persuade a good chunk of the opposition members to co-operate on the matter of national importance. Even if only some of these issues get resolved in the next 2 years the party will earn sufficient goodwill and garner enough votes.
Also do not ignore the likes of Anna, Ramdev and other activists. Because if you follow people-friendly policies, they can cross-over to your side and become a valuable asset. Remember, tomorrow belongs to people who prepare for it today. You have to fight the forthcoming battle on your own with the help of a new team without the encumbrance of old mentors. What better way to humble the opposition except hard work, sincerity, good intention and humility rather than resorting to short-lived chicanery, street smartness and one-upmanship. So the chips may be down for you at the moment in the backdrop of last month's dismal performance in UP, but ignore the slings and arrows in the media because the journey to 2014 is still very long. Get ready to take the first small step of spring-cleaning in the party by infusion of new blood. You can do it.
Timely advice which Rahul Gandhi should have heeded.
ReplyDelete