Dawn of a New Era: MYANMAR REVISITED

          Much water has flowed down the Irrawaddy since March 2, 1962 when Burma's Parliamentary democracy came to an end. The last 50 years have been locust-eaten. Well almost. Repression, decay and isolation have been the order of the day. However, the last 5 months have brought a sudden halt to its downhill journey into the oblivion. Like a Tsunami, the waves of DEMOCRACY seemed to have swept the shores of Myanmar.

          Pundits, Mandarins, uninitiated and ignorant alike are busy fathoming its effect on how far it has affected the fortunes of erstwhile junta. It's both audible and visible. There is chaos on the roads, confusion in minds, hope in hearts, exuberance of youth, cynicism of old and guarded optimism of seasoned Burma- watchers. But feelings of despair and helplessness of olden days are somewhat missing. Amidst all this kerfuffle of contrasting views and interests, there is the towering personality of Nobel Laureate Daw Aung Saan Suu Kyi.  A cult-figure, she enjoys tremendous popularity among local masses. In her sixties, she seems to be more pragmatic now.

          All this has been made possible by the retirement of former junta strongman Than Shwe and many other senior army officers. There is no way of knowing how much power he still wields, safely ensconced in the picturesque Nay Pyi Taw ( Abode of Kings ), the new capital of Myanmar since 2005. But many in this country believe that Than Shwe may have retired but not faded away completely and is still pulling the strings of power from behind. In fact, the incumbent President owes his present position to Than Shwe.

          Thein Sein, a former Prime Minister, is an ex-general and member of Junta. He became President in March, 2011 launching a nominally civilian government after the controversial elections of November, 2010 from which Suu Kyi was excluded. His government has released hundreds of political prisoners, signed cease-fire deals with ethnic rebels, enhanced media freedom and relaxed censorship laws. He presents a kind and gentle face of the ruling military regime in civilian attire. He had a detailed meeting with Suu Kyi in August, 2011 setting the reform process in motion. In his approach there is frankness for discussion to build ways of including groups that have been in armed conflict with the political process and expedite the reforms initiated by his government.

          But the process of rebuilding defunct civilian institutions, viz: a robust media, active judiciary and functioning financial system is rather long and difficult. The road of true democracy is full of pitfalls and potholes and its restoration in Myanmar would depend on the mutual trust between various stakeholders, their sagacity and resilience in the spirit of give and take for the greater good of its 51 million people. It cannot be denied that due to its over five decades rule, Tatmadaw ( armed forces) is the only organised institution left in the country and unless they are fully on board the train of democracy  will not move. The best scenario would be a civilian government headed by Suu Kyi with the full backing of the army. Once a parliamentary democracy is securely established the army may return honourably to the barracks handing over the reins of power to the elected representative. For the moment it looks like wishful thinking but quite possible in distant future. There is no shortage of ‘spoilers’ though; for example the beneficiary of 2010 elections (USDP) and ‘corrupt’ elements in the army. But they may not be able to rock the boat in view of vastly changed international landscape since the ‘Jasmine’ revolution in Tunisia.

          As of now, the single most important task before the incumbent government in Myanmar is the revival of its frail economy which after decades of stagnation, mismanagement and isolation is in a pathetic shape. Luckily, in a positive development the World Bank has agreed to support the reforms and

help analyze the country’s economic infrastructure and banking and finance

sector crucial for attracting investments. According to a report of IMF, Myanmar is going to be new economic frontier of Asia but as things stand today, it looks like a pipe-dream. This country requires massive investment for building its infrastructure: roads, hotels, schools, technical institutions, hospitals etc. No investor will come for charity. They will need to be reassured about safety of their investment and profits which they hope to make. And for this to happen, a transparent financial system fully backed by laws conforming to International standard should be in place.

          Right now there is eager wait for April 1, 2012 by elections which is likely to elect Suu Kyi and her NLD members to the Parliament.  There are not many seats to win, just 40 for the lower house of the Parliament less than 10% of the total strength. But it would send a strong message down the line, if NLD makes a clean sweep of these seats. The rulers may have to work-out an out of the box solution to earmark a stellar role for Suu Kyi in the governance of Myanmar in

the post – April, 2012 dispensation. The real game will commence only after the conclusion of the forthcoming by elections. Let us hope that no one gets befooled in Myanmar this year on April 1, the day of by elections and a day celebrated all over the world as All Fools’ Day.

Mission 2014 - Rahul Bhai Lage Raho

          So finally it is over. That is, the elections to UP and 4 other states touted by many as semi-final before the final is played in 2014 or even before if  it's convenient to the title holders.

          Like the IPL Cricket it gave livelihood to plenty, sound bytes to many, spread falsehood of some congenital liars, accorded knighthood on none and stardom to one. The star being Akhilesh Yadav, the new kid on the block. Matches are over, results are known and it is time for the post-mortem, better known as Chintan, Manthan or simple introspection.

          Of the 5 states, UP with 403 Assembly seats and 80 Parliamentary seats attracted maximum attention. Rightly so! This is the state which has provided maximum Kings or King-makers to the Republic of India during last 64 years and may do so in the near future.

         

          It was clear at the very early stage of electioneering that Mayawati afflicted by statue-mania, brazen corruption and Lucknow/Noida fixation will suffer huge loss. But it was not clear as to who will emerge victorious. The one-man army of Rahul Gandhi, the crown prince or Akhilesh a new face of refreshing innocence, assiduously mentored by the old warhorse Mulayam Yadav. He must have learnt some tricks of trade from the estranged uncle Amar Singh as well. While the former was handicapped by his deputies who were with him on the dais either for photo-ops, or for making shrill, sensational and desperate statements, the latter had the clear advantage of an active party cadre, a manifesto promising moon to everyone in the state and solid backing of a major chunk of Yadav and Muslim supporters.
An all-out attack on BSP's corruption led by Rahul Gandhi, BJP and others made things easier for his party. The near absence of organizational structure of Congress at the grass-root level to convert Rahul's hard work into votes and lack-lustre campaigning by local BJP leaders, smarting under the discomfiture, if not humiliation, caused to them by the import of Uma Bharti also helped SP as the non-committed voters who could have to gone either to Congress or BJP were driven in its welcoming arms.

         

          One vital difference between the campaigning styles of Rahul and Akhilesh was their body-language. While Akhilesh Bhaiya, to a typical youth from UP struck as a friendly guy, like someone from their own stock and developed an  instant rapport with them, Rahul Bhai appeared distant and somewhat on the glamour side. He was seen, heard but did not touch their hearts. His speeches highlighting Mayawati's corruption drew rapturous applauses only because he was stating a fact known to the audience. But when he wanted the crown of UP for his party they didn't oblige him. They knew very well that he is not interested in CM's chair and will not leave Delhi for Lucknow (the results of Amethi, Raebareli and Azamgarh are clear indicators). In these circumstances, Akhilesh appeared a safer bet to replace Mayawati.

          But all is not lost  for Rahul. Akhilesh may be the flavour of the season but it would be a tad difficult for him to sustain this phase for the next 2 years. UP is such a vast state with numerous intractable problems that once the dust of euphoria settles down, he will be fully bogged down tackling those (problems). Law and order will be his first big test. A majority of law- breakers (many of them now law-makers) also form his core support base and it may not be easy to convert them into non-violent monks overnight. There will be far too many expectations from him which he will find increasingly difficult to fulfill. Besides, people have a very short memory and tendency to get disenchanted very quickly is not unusual. Today's hero becomes villain in no time. Ask the Indian cricketers if there is any doubt. And it has been proven time and again on the Indian political landscape. Just remember the massive verdicts in 1971, 1977 and 1984 and what happened a few years after each of these. In UP itself the same people who put Mayawati on the throne 5 years ago by removing SP have brought them back to power in spite of her good record on law and order. The stink of corruption during her regime simply put them off.
The final in 2014 would be a different ball game altogether. Though many regional chieftains are smelling blood after Congress flop show, the prospects of a non-BJP and non-Congress government in Delhi are not very bright at the moment. Rahul Gandhi enjoys a distinct advantage over Akhilesh and many local satraps ruling in major states. Unlike many of them, he has a pan India image, is still young and has relatively unsullied image. What is missing in him is accessibility and humility, qualities so important for a politician to strike a chord with people. The bashful reluctance to open his mouth on major national issues is rather inexplicable. Instead of taking a firm stand on major issues either he keeps mum or proffers utopian solutions. This gives him an image of someone who is neither secure nor sincere. He has to make people trust him as a leader by reaching out to them not from the rostrum but face to face. Has to work really hard to enter the heart of the common man and earn their goodwill and affection. For this he will have to spend more time with the grass root workers from whom he can learn a lot about the ground realities. After all seeing is being different than being told. There is nothing wrong with Laptop; I-pad but there is no substitute to personal interactions with the party workers, because it is they who will fight the real battle. His party is full of leaders but they lack the mass-appeal at the national level. Some of them may manage to win on their own but they may not bring any substantial number of seats to the party kitty. This is something Rahul will have to do.

          There are still 2 years left and if within the next six months he is able to pick up and short-list about 300 good candidates who are bright, honest, hard-working and mostly from the local ranks, he would have done 25% of his job. The remaining seats he can leave to the party high command. The putative candidates can be asked to go in the field and work for the next 12 months in the respective areas. Six months before the elections their inputs will provide the agenda for the party manifesto. But before all that he has to show his bona fides and what better way than to get some of the things agitating the minds of average Indian sorted out. Lokpal Bill, Black Money, Women's Reservation bill, FDI in retails with necessary safeguards, infra-structure projects etc. are such issues which will be the real game changers. Policies which promise to ameliorate the pathetic conditions of farmers/lower and middle classes across the board need to be framed and implemented. If you work for the people, the party benefits. More than anything else your Neeyat (intention) will be under public gaze. And it is high time, that Dr. Manmohan Singh is given a free hand to tackle these matters. Do not forget he still carries the image of an honest and competent person and given full authority can repair his bruised reputation in next 2 years provided he does not have to carry an albatross of inertia around his neck. Between them, he and Pranab Mukherjee can persuade a good chunk of the opposition members to co-operate on the matter of national importance. Even if only some of these issues get resolved in the next 2 years the party will earn sufficient goodwill and garner enough votes.

          Also do not ignore the likes of Anna, Ramdev and other activists. Because if you follow people-friendly policies, they can cross-over to your side and become a valuable asset. Remember, tomorrow belongs to people who prepare for it today. You have to fight the forthcoming battle on your own with the help of a new team without the encumbrance of old mentors. What better way to humble the opposition except hard work, sincerity, good intention and humility rather than resorting to short-lived chicanery, street smartness and one-upmanship. So the chips may be down for you at the moment in the backdrop of last month's dismal performance in UP, but ignore the slings and arrows in the media because the journey to 2014 is still very long.  Get ready to take the first small step of spring-cleaning in the party by infusion of new blood. You can do it.