Battle for Bihar- Cast(e) in Development

Battle for Bihar 2015 – Cast(e) in Development  

A significant event took place on 22 October 1764 in Bihar. Known as Battle of Buxar it was fought between the English East India Company and Indian forces at Buxar. The company forces under the command of Major Hector Munro inflicted a crushing defeat on the combined forces of Nawab of Bengal Mir Qasim, Nawab of Awadh Shuja-ud-Daula and Mughal King Shah Alam II. This victory established the supremacy of English forces in Bengal, Bihar, Orissa and beyond.

  

251 years later, another kind of battle is being fought in Bihar. This is an electoral battle to be decided by 6.68 crore voters in Bihar. The main fight is between NDA forces spearheaded by PM Narendra Modi and a loose alliance of 3 parties called Mahagathbandhan or GA (Grand Alliance) under the joint command of bitter foes-turned-friends Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Both are tallest leaders among Yadav and Kurmi – dominant backward castes and have substantial following among Muslims. It is pertinent to mention that Nitish Kumar was aligned with NDA for 17 years (1996 – 2013) and was instrumental in bringing an end to Lalu's misrule in 2005. Miffed with anointment of Narendra Modi on Sept 13, 2013 as BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate for 2014 Parliamentary elections, he broke the coalition on the specious ground of 'secularism'. His image took a hit after his 'opportunistic' alliance with bete noire Lalu. 

The wily Lalu in his heydays was a brazen practitioner of caste politics and evolved an unbeatable MY (Muslim/Yadav) combo enabling his party RJD (read family) to rule for 15 years (1990-2005). With no aptitude for governance or development he let loose a reign of terror aka Jungle Raj driving millions of Bihari youths to other parts of India in search of education, job, security and better life. During his regime Dalits and Extremely Backward Castes (EBC) suffered , his Yadav fraternity prospered, corruption ruled the roost and criminals got emboldened making kidnapping for ransom a flourishing industry.  While the state was plunged in the darkness of anarchy, Lalu's main vocation was taking good care of his family - illiterate wife (whom he made Chief Minister for 5 years) and nine children. But he is more infamous for Fodder Scam case in which he was convicted for 5 years and barred from contesting elections. No wonder, Bihar which was considered the second- best governed state in India in 1953 in the Paul Appleby report slid down to bottom.

Lalu's party was dethroned in 2005 Assembly elections by a coalition of BJP and JD (U) led by Nitish Kumar. The biggest achievement of Nitish-led Govt in Bihar was to end Lalu's Jungle Raj.  His Govt initiated several social welfare schemes for the benefit of women, girl child and extremely poor sections besides constructing roads. The coalition ran smoothly primarily because BJP let Nitish run it and played second fiddle to him. Their good work and Nitish's clean image enabled the coalition to score a landslide victory in 2010 elections, winning 206 out of 243 seats with Lalu's party getting a paltry 22 seats. His Govt controlled crime and did basic development work like roads,schools etc but failed miserably to make headway in the core areas of power, industries and jobs. Mass copying in exams and appointment of thousands of fake teachers made a mockery of education while corruption remained untamed. All this while Nitish kept his image of a good administrator intact with the help of spin doctors. But in a caste-ridden state like Bihar, even Nitish couldn't resist the lure of caste politics. Guided by his vulpine political instincts, he did his own brand of social engineering by carving out EBC, Mahadalit and Pasmanda Muslim from OBC, Dalit & Muslim segments of electorate. So if boisterous Lalu known for his clownish antics was crude practitioner of caste politics in Bihar, soft-spoken Nitish was its suave high priest. In a nutshell, the main contribution of these two politicians with a socialist background was to convert castes into miasma of vote politics. It's not that caste politics was absent before they arrived but they were so enamoured of it that governance took a back seat. While politicians were winning elections, Bihar was steadily losing ground and suffering of poor and migration of its youth continued.

      

       Politics is war by another means and everything is fair in war and all contenders are doing the worst to show their best face as in earlier elections. The weft and warp of the caste tapestry is on full display to entice voters. While NDA has promised Bijli-Paani -Sadak (Electricity,Water,Road) to State and Kamai,Padhai and Dawai (Job, Education and Medicine) to every family, Lalu/Nitish duo who have ruled Bihar for the last 25 years and their junior partner Congress are using Caste,Religion and Modi-bashing as their main weapons. A majority of voters are likely to vote along the caste lines with Upper Caste, Dalit and Mahadalit (38%) opting for NDA  and the formidable combination of  Yadav, Kurmi and Muslim (34%) backing GA. In addition, there are 16 parties either on their own or as part of Third and Left front like NCP, SP, BSP, Owaisi's MIM and strong Independent and rebel candidates in the fray. They have slim chance of success but may take away about 8 to 10% votes mainly from GA and bag around a dozen seats. But the special target of all parties is vulnerable 24% EBCs voters who are divided into 94 castes and scattered all over the state. However, the real swing may be provided by 20 million 'aspirational' youth ( below 30 years) and women voters casting their lot with party promising development and security who may be attracted by the unprecedented special package of  1.65 lakh crore for Bihar's development announced by PM Modi in August,2015. In short, youth, women and EBC voters will decide the winner. They are more likely to sway to Modi's catchy tunes of development, job opportunities and better infrastructures than listen to shrill diatribe of Lalu and Nitish against him.

After 4 rounds of voting for 186 seats it's a neck-to- neck race with NDA slightly ahead of GA  Polling for the remaining 57 seats will take place on 5th Nov in the sensitive Seemanchal area which has substantial Muslim population and there is a distinct possibility of polarization of votes. If that happens, NDA will romp home to victory. In the worst case scenario BJP wil score a century and NDA will win around 130 seats. In case the Juggernaut of Development crushes the Djinn of Regression they may reach 160 mark. Let us see who takes the mantle of Major Hector Munro on 8th November.

ONE YEAR IN HOT PURSUIT OF ACCHE DIN

One Year In Hot Pursuit Of Acche Din

One year is a good time to make an objective assessment of the performance of a Govt. with a life span of five years. Something like the first 10 overs in a 50 over cricket match. NDA led by charismatic Narendra Modi completes one year in office next week. In a diverse and complex country of 1.25 billion there would be million voices on what he has done or what he didn't to redeem the promises he made during the elections last year. Let the facts speak for themselves. 

Positives

Increased FDI in Insurance, Defence, Railways and Construction Projects, more funds for States, online transparent auction of Spectrum, Coal yielding over Rs 3 lakh crores, Nuclear Liability Agreement, bringing down inflation from 8.59% (April, 2014) to 4.87% (April, 2015), deregulation of Diesel prices and path-breaking law on Black Money to name a few. All welcome steps as are the Govt's herculean efforts of dismantling the dysfunctional system of procedural clearances to attract heavy investments in India which ranks 142 out of 189 countries on the ease of doing business index.

A pity that 2 major bills – Land acquisition & GST bills, considered key enablers to speed up the economic reforms process, have been delayed in the face of strong protests by Congress party passing through the confused state of cognitive dissonance. These could have activated the economy as India is poised for stable growth momentum.

Negatives

However, everything is not so hunky-dory. Modi's failure to rein in habitual offenders from raising, time and again, inane issues like love jihad and ghar-wapsi is inexplicable. The reprehensible speeches of these loudmouths, besides causing unease and anxiety among some sections of minorities go against party's committed goal of Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas. A stern leader like Modi should have chastised them and saved party from adverse publicity in domestic & international media. Publicity is essential in democracy to keep in touch with people yet its overdose can be counter-productive, as it happened in monogrammed suit controversy. But real areas of concern are high food prices, new jobs and farmers’ apprehension on Land bill.

Works in progress

The innovative financial inclusions steps like Jan Dhan Yojna (Banking the unbanked), MUDRA (Funding the unfunded) and social security schemes Jeevan Suraksha Yojana aim at empowering the farmers, small businessmen, lower middle class and vulnerable sections of the society. But the real game-changer could be the saplings of economic growth like 5 new ultra mega power projects of 4000 MW each and heavy infrastructure projects in roads, railways, airports & ports besides the more ambitious ventures like Make in India, Digital India, Sagarmala and Smart cities being planted by his Govt. These will need adequate time, huge money and constant monitoring to develop into robust fruit-bearing trees. Add Swach Bharat and Namami Ganga projects to the list and one gets an idea of Modi's grand vision for a modern India. The bottom line is Modi Sarkar is as high on performance as it is on promises. It would, however, be naive to believe that all this can happen in a trice. You can get Maggi noodles in 2 minutes but not a sumptuous biryani.

Corruption

Govt's 2 bold initiatives to tackle this menace has been stringent laws on Black Money stashed abroad and proposed Benami bill to nab tax-dodgers and creators of domestic black money. Its decision to treat graft as a 'heinous' crime, punishment for both bribe-takers and bribe-givers up to 7 years, acceptance of non-monetary gratification as 'bribe' and 2-year time-frame for completion of graft cases will be enabling steps to curb corruption in upper echelons. But it is brazen and widespread corruption at the level of junior officials in municipality, police, transport, hospitals/schools, income tax etc. which directly affects millions on a daily basis that should be stemmed on a war footing with the help of latest technology and honest officials.

     A daunting task but Modi can do it. He sounds credible with his statements like - "Na khaunga Na khane dunga", "Rules are same for Mukesh Ambani and common man", "his Govt will have a level playing field for all and he will not spoon-feed anyone". These may not be palatable to those who have thrived all these years within the protected confines of crony-capitalism but genuine investors would be reassured. 

Population

All gains of economic bonanza will go waste if our ever rising population is not controlled. A new population policy which is neither coercive nor cosmetic is required. It can have dollops of financial, educational medical and social incentives for having a small family. Campaigns like Beti Bachao Beti Padhao can be very useful. For political reasons, a revolutionary step may not be feasible at the moment but this is as serious an issue as rampant corruption and has many deleterious side effects like pollution, poverty, unemployment, crime etc.

Foreign Policy

This is one area where even his trenchant critics would concede that he has been successful in improving India's international image. His visit to 19 countries including 5 G-7 (US, Japan, Canada, France & Germany) have been very fruitful for India's economic development and political convergence and likely to bring tidy investment and latest technology to India, Modi has enthused millions of Indian diaspora during these visits and has become a cult-figure among them. He has also cemented ties with our neighbours, except Pakistan which continues to play the old game of one step forward, two steps back.

     Much was expected from Modi's 3-day state visit to China and Modi didn't disappoint. Both sides worked meticulously to make it a memorable visit. The talks were candid, constructive and comprehensive and a wide consensus seems to have been reached between two countries to put history and geography on a back burner and focus on culture, chemistry and economics (26 deals worth $22 billion) and move bilateral relations to a new high. "Seize the day, seize the hour" could be the new buzzword. Indian President's participation in Victory day celebrations in Moscow and signing of Chabahar port deal with Iran despite US warning show a confident India. The stupendous job of evacuations of thousands of people trapped in war-torn Iraq and Yemen and earthquake-hit Nepal including nationals of 45 countries earned us international acclaim and gratitude. Foreign Ministry on the move with great aplomb.

Party

After stunning victories in Maharashtra, Haryana, J&K and Jharkhand, BJP fell flat on its face in Delhi. In the backdrop of Delhi debacle, Amit Shah considered Modi's major-domo in the party can't afford to lose in Bihar. Testing times for him, his mentor and party. Modi's cabinet may not be "woefully short of talent" but there could be many square pegs in round holes. Summer would be good time for a minor reshuffle. Also a Sujh Bujh Ki Sarkar will avoid arrogance and embrace modesty in its day-to-day business. While arrogance magnifies a lapse, modesty reduces it.

Leader

Modi may not have the profundity of scholarship but keeps his feet on the ground and head in the clouds and joins them together. This rare quality gives him a depth of insight into intricate problems. Self-praise comes naturally to a politician and he is no exception but no politician works as hard as he does. During US visit in Sept, 2014 he worked while fasting and looked amazingly fresh. A real workaholic. He is also a good motivator as is evident from the way his appeal for surrender of LPG subsidy struck a chord among country's cynical affluent society. Modi's lavish praise of some of his cabinet colleagues and his advice to senior bureaucrats "to lead a tension-free life and spend quality time with their family members" were pleasant surprises.

Modi Govt's intentions for good governance is not in question but the core issue is speedy implementation of job-intensive mega projects capable of providing 5 to 6 million new jobs in next 2 years. To use the cricket analogy, Team Modi has made a solid start on a sticky wicket scoring 70 runs for no loss in first 10 overs - no scam, no scandal. But expectation from Modi is so high that even such a spectacular performance is not enough and people are asking for more.