Battle for Bihar- Cast(e) in Development

Battle for Bihar 2015 – Cast(e) in Development  

A significant event took place on 22 October 1764 in Bihar. Known as Battle of Buxar it was fought between the English East India Company and Indian forces at Buxar. The company forces under the command of Major Hector Munro inflicted a crushing defeat on the combined forces of Nawab of Bengal Mir Qasim, Nawab of Awadh Shuja-ud-Daula and Mughal King Shah Alam II. This victory established the supremacy of English forces in Bengal, Bihar, Orissa and beyond.

  

251 years later, another kind of battle is being fought in Bihar. This is an electoral battle to be decided by 6.68 crore voters in Bihar. The main fight is between NDA forces spearheaded by PM Narendra Modi and a loose alliance of 3 parties called Mahagathbandhan or GA (Grand Alliance) under the joint command of bitter foes-turned-friends Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Both are tallest leaders among Yadav and Kurmi – dominant backward castes and have substantial following among Muslims. It is pertinent to mention that Nitish Kumar was aligned with NDA for 17 years (1996 – 2013) and was instrumental in bringing an end to Lalu's misrule in 2005. Miffed with anointment of Narendra Modi on Sept 13, 2013 as BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate for 2014 Parliamentary elections, he broke the coalition on the specious ground of 'secularism'. His image took a hit after his 'opportunistic' alliance with bete noire Lalu. 

The wily Lalu in his heydays was a brazen practitioner of caste politics and evolved an unbeatable MY (Muslim/Yadav) combo enabling his party RJD (read family) to rule for 15 years (1990-2005). With no aptitude for governance or development he let loose a reign of terror aka Jungle Raj driving millions of Bihari youths to other parts of India in search of education, job, security and better life. During his regime Dalits and Extremely Backward Castes (EBC) suffered , his Yadav fraternity prospered, corruption ruled the roost and criminals got emboldened making kidnapping for ransom a flourishing industry.  While the state was plunged in the darkness of anarchy, Lalu's main vocation was taking good care of his family - illiterate wife (whom he made Chief Minister for 5 years) and nine children. But he is more infamous for Fodder Scam case in which he was convicted for 5 years and barred from contesting elections. No wonder, Bihar which was considered the second- best governed state in India in 1953 in the Paul Appleby report slid down to bottom.

Lalu's party was dethroned in 2005 Assembly elections by a coalition of BJP and JD (U) led by Nitish Kumar. The biggest achievement of Nitish-led Govt in Bihar was to end Lalu's Jungle Raj.  His Govt initiated several social welfare schemes for the benefit of women, girl child and extremely poor sections besides constructing roads. The coalition ran smoothly primarily because BJP let Nitish run it and played second fiddle to him. Their good work and Nitish's clean image enabled the coalition to score a landslide victory in 2010 elections, winning 206 out of 243 seats with Lalu's party getting a paltry 22 seats. His Govt controlled crime and did basic development work like roads,schools etc but failed miserably to make headway in the core areas of power, industries and jobs. Mass copying in exams and appointment of thousands of fake teachers made a mockery of education while corruption remained untamed. All this while Nitish kept his image of a good administrator intact with the help of spin doctors. But in a caste-ridden state like Bihar, even Nitish couldn't resist the lure of caste politics. Guided by his vulpine political instincts, he did his own brand of social engineering by carving out EBC, Mahadalit and Pasmanda Muslim from OBC, Dalit & Muslim segments of electorate. So if boisterous Lalu known for his clownish antics was crude practitioner of caste politics in Bihar, soft-spoken Nitish was its suave high priest. In a nutshell, the main contribution of these two politicians with a socialist background was to convert castes into miasma of vote politics. It's not that caste politics was absent before they arrived but they were so enamoured of it that governance took a back seat. While politicians were winning elections, Bihar was steadily losing ground and suffering of poor and migration of its youth continued.

      

       Politics is war by another means and everything is fair in war and all contenders are doing the worst to show their best face as in earlier elections. The weft and warp of the caste tapestry is on full display to entice voters. While NDA has promised Bijli-Paani -Sadak (Electricity,Water,Road) to State and Kamai,Padhai and Dawai (Job, Education and Medicine) to every family, Lalu/Nitish duo who have ruled Bihar for the last 25 years and their junior partner Congress are using Caste,Religion and Modi-bashing as their main weapons. A majority of voters are likely to vote along the caste lines with Upper Caste, Dalit and Mahadalit (38%) opting for NDA  and the formidable combination of  Yadav, Kurmi and Muslim (34%) backing GA. In addition, there are 16 parties either on their own or as part of Third and Left front like NCP, SP, BSP, Owaisi's MIM and strong Independent and rebel candidates in the fray. They have slim chance of success but may take away about 8 to 10% votes mainly from GA and bag around a dozen seats. But the special target of all parties is vulnerable 24% EBCs voters who are divided into 94 castes and scattered all over the state. However, the real swing may be provided by 20 million 'aspirational' youth ( below 30 years) and women voters casting their lot with party promising development and security who may be attracted by the unprecedented special package of  1.65 lakh crore for Bihar's development announced by PM Modi in August,2015. In short, youth, women and EBC voters will decide the winner. They are more likely to sway to Modi's catchy tunes of development, job opportunities and better infrastructures than listen to shrill diatribe of Lalu and Nitish against him.

After 4 rounds of voting for 186 seats it's a neck-to- neck race with NDA slightly ahead of GA  Polling for the remaining 57 seats will take place on 5th Nov in the sensitive Seemanchal area which has substantial Muslim population and there is a distinct possibility of polarization of votes. If that happens, NDA will romp home to victory. In the worst case scenario BJP wil score a century and NDA will win around 130 seats. In case the Juggernaut of Development crushes the Djinn of Regression they may reach 160 mark. Let us see who takes the mantle of Major Hector Munro on 8th November.

Corruption - Road to Perdition

              Like a short spell of light rains in the hot summer months, victory in Karnataka assembly elections will provide much-needed relief to Congress party. But this will be a temporary relief. Things will heat up soon. To be sure, it is not a spectacular victory for Congress, rather an expected drubbing for BJP. The electorates have taught the latter a deserving lesson. The message from Karnataka is loud and clear. Corruption is now the most serious offence in the eyes of electorate, punishable with denial of votes to the perpetrators. Poor governance and lack of development also rank very high on the voters negative list. A leader is a dealer in hope but in India we have to be content with wheeler dealers.

              Hope the two major national parties dreaming to form the next government at the center have got the message right. First BJP, the main opposition party in the parliament. They would do well to remember the famous words attributed to French diplomat Talleyrand about the restored Bourbon dynasty after the abdication of Napoleon "they had learnt nothing and forgotten nothing". Apparently, BJP have learnt nothing after debacles in Jharkhand, Uttarakhand and Himachal to name a few. Perhaps, they would become wiser after their thrashing in Karnataka. A party which till the other day took pride in calling itself a party with a difference is a totally different party now. They may be less corrupt, more democratic and development-oriented but are bereft of new ideas. They do not seem to have added new voters and will continue to face drought of sizeable minority votes. In short, a pedestrian party surviving only because their main opponent is sinking in the quagmire of sleaze and sloth. It has some competent and honest leaders but the party as a whole does not inspire confidence. Only a Lehar (wave) can take them near the 180 mark. And they may well be tempted to play the Narendra Modi card to generate this wave. Will that work? 

              The situation of Congress is worse. They have simply lost the confidence of the man on the streets. The life of an ordinary man has become insecure as never before but this supine government is unable to do much. However, when it comes to the lives of VIPs, nothing is left to chance. In fact, the union Home Minister has created an unprecedented record by providing the highest security cover (Z plus category) to the country's top corporate leader who lives in the most expensive house in the world. Being the wealthiest Indian he could have easily paid for the best available personal security system in the world. By the way, he is the same gentleman who is reported to have boasted that "Congress toh ab apni dukaan hai" (courtesy Nira Radia tapes). Coming on the hot topic of corruption, as if their big-ticket scams like CWG, 2G and Coalgate were not enough, Congress-led UPA-II government have also dirtied their hands with smaller ventures like Adarsh gate, Chopper gate and now Rail gate. But for the courageous and exemplary intervention of judiciary, laudable work of CAG and alacrity of a vigilant media, the country would not have been able to watch the corruption item numbers in 3D. People are so aghast and distressed at this sordid state of affairs that they are waiting for elections to fix the fixers. We know from the tales of "Arabian nights", that only a greedy and reckless Cassim gets caught while the smart Ali Baba manages to escape. Both brothers have their clones in the murky world of Indian politics.

              Political power is like poison, confessed Congress main hope Rahul Gandhi in an emotional speech a few months back. Looking at the kind of life enjoyed by the beneficiaries of this system, he should have said that power is like nectar. Once you have it you don't need anything and if you don't have it, it does not matter what else you have. Contrast the lifestyle of these lotus-eaters living in a land of milk and honey with the pathetic conditions of millions who gave them this power. Do we need to say anything more? In 2009, when he commenced his second innings no one would have imagined that an honest, hard-working and humble person like Dr. Manmohan Singh would come to be associated with corruption and his opponents would dare to point fingers straight at him. A tragic paradox but incredibly true! It remains a mystery as to why he has not quit so far. Loyalty to the leader who gave him the job or lure for the chair or both? One day we may know. Decent man that he is he should not have descended so low. We can only hope that history will be kind to him. Here one is reminded of the lamentations of Thomas Wolsey, Chief Adviser to King Henry VIII in the 15th Century England, "If I had served my God as I did my King, He would not have given me over in my grey hairs ".

              Make no mistake. Corruption, as things stand today, will be the single most deciding factor in the forthcoming elections to the State assemblies and Parliament. For the political class which loves to perpetuate this unholy and unfair dispensation, it is time to reflect on the sane advice of famous Swiss psychotherapist Carl Jung, "The man who promises everything is sure to fulfill nothing, and everyone who promises too much is in danger of using evil means in order to carry out his promises, and is already on the road to perdition".

 FDI in Retail in India --- Incredible Myth or Plausible Reality

  

FDI in retail (100% in multi-brands) is our current national obsession. To some (read middlemen/ traders lobby) it would be a calamity, will create massive unemployment, increase inflation, bring misery to the millions, mostly poor, in this country and, therefore, totally unwelcome. To many (the much-harassed consumers, high-end farmers and corporates) it would be a much-needed revolutionary step in the right direction, just a trifle short of panacea. But first the facts and the ground-realities.

India has nearly 600 million farmers, 1200 million consumers and 5 million traders. In a written reply to the Parliament in April, 2012, it has been stated by the Government that India is now World's 2nd largest producer of Vegetables and Fruits after China with a total production of 77.52 million tons of fruits and 149.61 million tons of vegetables in 2011-12. During 2010-11, we also exported vegetables and fruits to many countries to the tune of Rs. 3856 crores (US $ 760 million). However, if we care to read a report of Central Institute for Post Harvest Engineering and Technology, Ludhiana published in 2010 it says that nearly 18% of our vegetables and fruits production worth Rs.44000 crores (US$ 8 billion)are wasted annually due to lack of cold storage facilities and other factors. For such a huge country like India there are only 5400 cold storages with nearly half of them in UP, Punjab and W. Bengal. 4875 of these belong to the private sector, 400 run by the co-operatives and only 125 by the public sector units. As stated by the union Minister of state for Food and Agriculture only 2% of the total horticulture production in the country is being processed now as compared to 15% in China and 8% in the Asia-Pacific countries. For a country with over 300 million people below poverty line this loss is colossal and avoidable. The absence of a farm to fork retail policy compels the consumers to pay a heavy premium for shortages and wastages.

The stranglehold of middlemen and greedy traders is at the root of rural poverty and a major cause for the pathetic condition of the farmers all over India. Fruits and vegetables which are perishable commodities pass through 5 to 6 layers of middlemen and due to addition of margin at every stage there is a huge difference in the farm gate, wholesale and retail price. So a humble potato for which a humbler farmer has to console himself with a price of Rs 2 a Kilogram will cost the consumer ,the last link of this complex  chain, anything between Rs 10 to 12. A cool profit of 600% to the dreaded middlemen blessed with a Midas touch. The middlemen and some traders are responsible for hoarding and black marketeering to a great extent.

 Indian farmer who has earned a good name for his innovative skills, fortitude and immense capacity to work hard in adverse conditions not only in his own country but over a dozen countries in the Asia, Africa, Caribbean and North America fails to get a fair price for his toils and sustained labour at home even after 65 years of Independence. Every year they are fleeced by the unscrupulous middlemen and traders as neither the farmers/producers nor various government agencies are in a position to ensure proper marketing of products. The only practical solution to mitigate their plight is direct and bulk purchase by the large retailers.

 This is why we need 100% FDI in multi-brand food-based retail. Contrary to what the skeptics may say even they know within their hearts that the foreign retailers would bring back-end infrastructure via: - cold chains, refrigeration, packaging, storage, transportation and introduce much-needed efficiency and modern practices in the supply and distribution chain. They will procure in bulk and sell at competitive price. Their entry will promote agricultural growth by increasing farmers income, creating efficient  Small and Medium Industries, providing several million jobs in the small and medium industries as well as logistics sectors for both the skilled and unskilled unemployed, enhance manpower and skill development, bring additional revenue to the exchequer, save massive wastage which would become available for domestic use/exports. Surely, the big MNC giants like Wal-Mart, Tesco, Carrefour and others are not coming to India for charity. They too will make profit but not even remotely comparable to what the Indian middlemen/traders are making. Further, they would not dare to sell the consumer sub-standard or adulterated foodstuff or pesticide-ridden fruits and vegetables. The unhygienic conditions of the shops and problem of under-weighing would also disappear. All these benefits will accrue to the consumers.

Some of the countries who have benefited by allowing 100% FDI in retail include China, Russia, Indonesia, Thailand, South Africa, Brazil and Argentina. However, before taking a plunge the government will have to  evolve clear-cut policies that provides a level-playing field to foreign and Indian big players and protect small retailers by having a legal framework that prohibits retail giants, both Indian and foreign, to indulge in predatory pricing and other unethical practices. Since the predominant retail (up to 98%) is in the unorganized sector and consists of Mom and Pop shops, convenience (Kirana) stores, street hawkers, peddlers on the wheels and pavements, village markets, it is imperative that  an enforcement mechanism is in  place  to ensure that small retailers are not dislocated by unfair means by the large ones. In particular, the foreign investors should be asked to make a real contribution to the development of infrastructure, logistics and agro-processing units. Then, it would be a win-win situation for everyone except the middlemen. The farmer gets a better price for his labour, consumers pay lesser price for a quality product with more variety to choose from. For the Small retailer it would be business as usual with a smaller margin but higher productivity and better services. The government earns more revenue and the nation and its people get world-class infrastructure.

FDI in multi-brand retail which could be one of the sunrise sectors for the Indian economy is a political hot potato right now and major opposition parties would love to upset Congress's apple cart if it finally decides to go ahead. It would be a tad difficult to evolve a political consensus and get all political parties on board. But for the ruling party suffering from the ill-effects of one scam after another in the last 3 years, election reverses in several states,  acquiring dubious tags of '' policy  paralysis'',  ''direction-less'', ''underachiever''  and the next general election looming large,  it would be a good idea to  bite the bullet on this thorny issue. They should engage with every party and try to get this through by consensus, if possible. Who knows they might repeat their performance of July 2008 on Indo-US Nuclear deal. If their pull, pressure and persuasion work with the usual suspects, they will triumph and the win would energise their demoralised cadre. The main opposition party should handle this issue with gravitas. Any faux pax and they would be reduced to calling the clinched FDI deal as sour grapes. In the bargain, they would also lose a large chunk of their main supporters - urban middle class.

Mission 2014 - Rahul Bhai Lage Raho

          So finally it is over. That is, the elections to UP and 4 other states touted by many as semi-final before the final is played in 2014 or even before if  it's convenient to the title holders.

          Like the IPL Cricket it gave livelihood to plenty, sound bytes to many, spread falsehood of some congenital liars, accorded knighthood on none and stardom to one. The star being Akhilesh Yadav, the new kid on the block. Matches are over, results are known and it is time for the post-mortem, better known as Chintan, Manthan or simple introspection.

          Of the 5 states, UP with 403 Assembly seats and 80 Parliamentary seats attracted maximum attention. Rightly so! This is the state which has provided maximum Kings or King-makers to the Republic of India during last 64 years and may do so in the near future.

         

          It was clear at the very early stage of electioneering that Mayawati afflicted by statue-mania, brazen corruption and Lucknow/Noida fixation will suffer huge loss. But it was not clear as to who will emerge victorious. The one-man army of Rahul Gandhi, the crown prince or Akhilesh a new face of refreshing innocence, assiduously mentored by the old warhorse Mulayam Yadav. He must have learnt some tricks of trade from the estranged uncle Amar Singh as well. While the former was handicapped by his deputies who were with him on the dais either for photo-ops, or for making shrill, sensational and desperate statements, the latter had the clear advantage of an active party cadre, a manifesto promising moon to everyone in the state and solid backing of a major chunk of Yadav and Muslim supporters.
An all-out attack on BSP's corruption led by Rahul Gandhi, BJP and others made things easier for his party. The near absence of organizational structure of Congress at the grass-root level to convert Rahul's hard work into votes and lack-lustre campaigning by local BJP leaders, smarting under the discomfiture, if not humiliation, caused to them by the import of Uma Bharti also helped SP as the non-committed voters who could have to gone either to Congress or BJP were driven in its welcoming arms.

         

          One vital difference between the campaigning styles of Rahul and Akhilesh was their body-language. While Akhilesh Bhaiya, to a typical youth from UP struck as a friendly guy, like someone from their own stock and developed an  instant rapport with them, Rahul Bhai appeared distant and somewhat on the glamour side. He was seen, heard but did not touch their hearts. His speeches highlighting Mayawati's corruption drew rapturous applauses only because he was stating a fact known to the audience. But when he wanted the crown of UP for his party they didn't oblige him. They knew very well that he is not interested in CM's chair and will not leave Delhi for Lucknow (the results of Amethi, Raebareli and Azamgarh are clear indicators). In these circumstances, Akhilesh appeared a safer bet to replace Mayawati.

          But all is not lost  for Rahul. Akhilesh may be the flavour of the season but it would be a tad difficult for him to sustain this phase for the next 2 years. UP is such a vast state with numerous intractable problems that once the dust of euphoria settles down, he will be fully bogged down tackling those (problems). Law and order will be his first big test. A majority of law- breakers (many of them now law-makers) also form his core support base and it may not be easy to convert them into non-violent monks overnight. There will be far too many expectations from him which he will find increasingly difficult to fulfill. Besides, people have a very short memory and tendency to get disenchanted very quickly is not unusual. Today's hero becomes villain in no time. Ask the Indian cricketers if there is any doubt. And it has been proven time and again on the Indian political landscape. Just remember the massive verdicts in 1971, 1977 and 1984 and what happened a few years after each of these. In UP itself the same people who put Mayawati on the throne 5 years ago by removing SP have brought them back to power in spite of her good record on law and order. The stink of corruption during her regime simply put them off.
The final in 2014 would be a different ball game altogether. Though many regional chieftains are smelling blood after Congress flop show, the prospects of a non-BJP and non-Congress government in Delhi are not very bright at the moment. Rahul Gandhi enjoys a distinct advantage over Akhilesh and many local satraps ruling in major states. Unlike many of them, he has a pan India image, is still young and has relatively unsullied image. What is missing in him is accessibility and humility, qualities so important for a politician to strike a chord with people. The bashful reluctance to open his mouth on major national issues is rather inexplicable. Instead of taking a firm stand on major issues either he keeps mum or proffers utopian solutions. This gives him an image of someone who is neither secure nor sincere. He has to make people trust him as a leader by reaching out to them not from the rostrum but face to face. Has to work really hard to enter the heart of the common man and earn their goodwill and affection. For this he will have to spend more time with the grass root workers from whom he can learn a lot about the ground realities. After all seeing is being different than being told. There is nothing wrong with Laptop; I-pad but there is no substitute to personal interactions with the party workers, because it is they who will fight the real battle. His party is full of leaders but they lack the mass-appeal at the national level. Some of them may manage to win on their own but they may not bring any substantial number of seats to the party kitty. This is something Rahul will have to do.

          There are still 2 years left and if within the next six months he is able to pick up and short-list about 300 good candidates who are bright, honest, hard-working and mostly from the local ranks, he would have done 25% of his job. The remaining seats he can leave to the party high command. The putative candidates can be asked to go in the field and work for the next 12 months in the respective areas. Six months before the elections their inputs will provide the agenda for the party manifesto. But before all that he has to show his bona fides and what better way than to get some of the things agitating the minds of average Indian sorted out. Lokpal Bill, Black Money, Women's Reservation bill, FDI in retails with necessary safeguards, infra-structure projects etc. are such issues which will be the real game changers. Policies which promise to ameliorate the pathetic conditions of farmers/lower and middle classes across the board need to be framed and implemented. If you work for the people, the party benefits. More than anything else your Neeyat (intention) will be under public gaze. And it is high time, that Dr. Manmohan Singh is given a free hand to tackle these matters. Do not forget he still carries the image of an honest and competent person and given full authority can repair his bruised reputation in next 2 years provided he does not have to carry an albatross of inertia around his neck. Between them, he and Pranab Mukherjee can persuade a good chunk of the opposition members to co-operate on the matter of national importance. Even if only some of these issues get resolved in the next 2 years the party will earn sufficient goodwill and garner enough votes.

          Also do not ignore the likes of Anna, Ramdev and other activists. Because if you follow people-friendly policies, they can cross-over to your side and become a valuable asset. Remember, tomorrow belongs to people who prepare for it today. You have to fight the forthcoming battle on your own with the help of a new team without the encumbrance of old mentors. What better way to humble the opposition except hard work, sincerity, good intention and humility rather than resorting to short-lived chicanery, street smartness and one-upmanship. So the chips may be down for you at the moment in the backdrop of last month's dismal performance in UP, but ignore the slings and arrows in the media because the journey to 2014 is still very long.  Get ready to take the first small step of spring-cleaning in the party by infusion of new blood. You can do it.