Battle for Bihar 2015 – Cast(e) in Development
A significant event took
place on 22 October 1764 in Bihar. Known as Battle of Buxar it was fought
between the English East India Company and Indian forces at Buxar. The company
forces under the command of Major Hector Munro inflicted a crushing defeat on
the combined forces of Nawab of Bengal Mir Qasim, Nawab of Awadh Shuja-ud-Daula
and Mughal King Shah Alam II. This victory established the supremacy of English
forces in Bengal, Bihar, Orissa and beyond.
251 years later, another
kind of battle is being fought in Bihar. This is an electoral battle to be
decided by 6.68 crore voters in Bihar. The main fight is between NDA forces
spearheaded by PM Narendra Modi and a loose alliance of 3 parties called
Mahagathbandhan or GA (Grand Alliance) under the joint command of bitter
foes-turned-friends Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Both are tallest leaders among
Yadav and Kurmi – dominant backward castes and have substantial following among
Muslims. It is pertinent to mention that Nitish Kumar was aligned with NDA for
17 years (1996 – 2013) and was instrumental in bringing an end to Lalu's
misrule in 2005. Miffed with anointment of Narendra Modi on Sept 13, 2013 as
BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate for 2014 Parliamentary elections, he broke
the coalition on the specious ground of 'secularism'. His image took a hit after his 'opportunistic' alliance with bete noire Lalu.
The wily Lalu in his heydays was a brazen practitioner of caste politics and evolved an unbeatable MY
(Muslim/Yadav) combo enabling his party RJD (read family) to rule for 15 years (1990-2005). With no aptitude for governance or development he let loose a reign of terror aka
Jungle Raj driving millions of Bihari youths to other parts of India in search
of education, job, security and better life. During his regime Dalits and
Extremely Backward Castes (EBC) suffered , his Yadav fraternity prospered, corruption ruled the roost and criminals got emboldened making kidnapping for ransom a flourishing
industry. While the state was plunged in the darkness of anarchy, Lalu's main
vocation was taking good care of his family - illiterate wife (whom he made Chief
Minister for 5 years) and nine children. But he is more infamous for Fodder Scam case in which he was convicted for 5 years and barred from contesting elections. No wonder, Bihar which was considered
the second- best governed state in India in 1953 in the Paul Appleby report
slid down to bottom.
Lalu's party was dethroned
in 2005 Assembly elections by a coalition of BJP and JD (U) led by Nitish
Kumar. The biggest achievement of Nitish-led Govt in Bihar was to end Lalu's
Jungle Raj. His Govt initiated several social welfare schemes for the
benefit of women, girl child and extremely poor sections besides constructing
roads. The coalition ran smoothly primarily because BJP let Nitish run it and
played second fiddle to him. Their good work and Nitish's clean image enabled
the coalition to score a landslide victory in 2010 elections, winning 206 out
of 243 seats with Lalu's party getting a paltry 22 seats. His Govt controlled crime and did basic development work like roads,schools etc but failed miserably to make headway in the core areas
of power, industries and jobs. Mass copying in exams and appointment of thousands of fake teachers made a
mockery of education while corruption remained untamed. All this while Nitish kept his image of a good administrator intact with the help of spin doctors. But in a
caste-ridden state like Bihar, even Nitish couldn't resist the lure of caste
politics. Guided by his vulpine political instincts, he did his own brand of social
engineering by carving out EBC, Mahadalit and Pasmanda Muslim from OBC, Dalit
& Muslim segments of electorate. So if boisterous Lalu known for his
clownish antics was crude practitioner of caste politics in Bihar, soft-spoken
Nitish was its suave high priest. In a nutshell, the main contribution of these two
politicians with a socialist background was to convert castes into miasma of
vote politics. It's not that caste politics was absent before they arrived but
they were so enamoured of it that governance took a back seat. While
politicians were winning elections, Bihar was steadily losing ground and
suffering of poor and migration of its youth continued.
Politics is war by another means and everything is fair in war and all contenders are doing the worst to show their best face as in earlier elections. The weft and warp of the caste tapestry is on full display to entice
voters. While NDA has promised Bijli-Paani -Sadak (Electricity,Water,Road) to State and Kamai,Padhai and Dawai (Job, Education and Medicine) to every family, Lalu/Nitish duo who have ruled Bihar for the last 25 years and their junior partner Congress are using Caste,Religion and Modi-bashing as their main weapons. A majority of voters are likely to vote along the caste lines with
Upper Caste, Dalit and Mahadalit (38%) opting for NDA and the formidable
combination of Yadav, Kurmi and Muslim (34%) backing GA. In addition,
there are 16 parties either on their own or as part of Third and Left front
like NCP, SP, BSP, Owaisi's MIM and strong Independent and rebel candidates in
the fray. They have slim chance of success but may take away about 8 to 10%
votes mainly from GA and bag around a dozen seats. But the special target
of all parties is vulnerable 24% EBCs voters who are divided into 94 castes and
scattered all over the state. However, the real swing may be provided by 20 million
'aspirational' youth ( below 30 years) and women voters casting their lot with
party promising development and security who may be attracted by the
unprecedented special package of 1.65 lakh crore for Bihar's development
announced by PM Modi in August,2015. In short, youth, women and EBC
voters will decide the winner. They are more likely to sway to Modi's catchy tunes of development, job opportunities and better infrastructures than listen to
shrill diatribe of Lalu and Nitish against him.
After 4 rounds of voting
for 186 seats it's a neck-to- neck race with NDA slightly ahead of GA
Polling for the remaining 57 seats will take place on 5th Nov in the sensitive
Seemanchal area which has substantial Muslim population and there is a distinct
possibility of polarization of votes. If that happens, NDA will romp home to
victory. In the worst case scenario BJP wil score a century and NDA will
win around 130 seats. In case the Juggernaut of Development crushes the Djinn of Regression they may reach 160 mark. Let us see who takes the mantle of Major Hector Munro on 8th November.
