Battle for Bihar- Cast(e) in Development

Battle for Bihar 2015 – Cast(e) in Development  

A significant event took place on 22 October 1764 in Bihar. Known as Battle of Buxar it was fought between the English East India Company and Indian forces at Buxar. The company forces under the command of Major Hector Munro inflicted a crushing defeat on the combined forces of Nawab of Bengal Mir Qasim, Nawab of Awadh Shuja-ud-Daula and Mughal King Shah Alam II. This victory established the supremacy of English forces in Bengal, Bihar, Orissa and beyond.

  

251 years later, another kind of battle is being fought in Bihar. This is an electoral battle to be decided by 6.68 crore voters in Bihar. The main fight is between NDA forces spearheaded by PM Narendra Modi and a loose alliance of 3 parties called Mahagathbandhan or GA (Grand Alliance) under the joint command of bitter foes-turned-friends Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Both are tallest leaders among Yadav and Kurmi – dominant backward castes and have substantial following among Muslims. It is pertinent to mention that Nitish Kumar was aligned with NDA for 17 years (1996 – 2013) and was instrumental in bringing an end to Lalu's misrule in 2005. Miffed with anointment of Narendra Modi on Sept 13, 2013 as BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate for 2014 Parliamentary elections, he broke the coalition on the specious ground of 'secularism'. His image took a hit after his 'opportunistic' alliance with bete noire Lalu. 

The wily Lalu in his heydays was a brazen practitioner of caste politics and evolved an unbeatable MY (Muslim/Yadav) combo enabling his party RJD (read family) to rule for 15 years (1990-2005). With no aptitude for governance or development he let loose a reign of terror aka Jungle Raj driving millions of Bihari youths to other parts of India in search of education, job, security and better life. During his regime Dalits and Extremely Backward Castes (EBC) suffered , his Yadav fraternity prospered, corruption ruled the roost and criminals got emboldened making kidnapping for ransom a flourishing industry.  While the state was plunged in the darkness of anarchy, Lalu's main vocation was taking good care of his family - illiterate wife (whom he made Chief Minister for 5 years) and nine children. But he is more infamous for Fodder Scam case in which he was convicted for 5 years and barred from contesting elections. No wonder, Bihar which was considered the second- best governed state in India in 1953 in the Paul Appleby report slid down to bottom.

Lalu's party was dethroned in 2005 Assembly elections by a coalition of BJP and JD (U) led by Nitish Kumar. The biggest achievement of Nitish-led Govt in Bihar was to end Lalu's Jungle Raj.  His Govt initiated several social welfare schemes for the benefit of women, girl child and extremely poor sections besides constructing roads. The coalition ran smoothly primarily because BJP let Nitish run it and played second fiddle to him. Their good work and Nitish's clean image enabled the coalition to score a landslide victory in 2010 elections, winning 206 out of 243 seats with Lalu's party getting a paltry 22 seats. His Govt controlled crime and did basic development work like roads,schools etc but failed miserably to make headway in the core areas of power, industries and jobs. Mass copying in exams and appointment of thousands of fake teachers made a mockery of education while corruption remained untamed. All this while Nitish kept his image of a good administrator intact with the help of spin doctors. But in a caste-ridden state like Bihar, even Nitish couldn't resist the lure of caste politics. Guided by his vulpine political instincts, he did his own brand of social engineering by carving out EBC, Mahadalit and Pasmanda Muslim from OBC, Dalit & Muslim segments of electorate. So if boisterous Lalu known for his clownish antics was crude practitioner of caste politics in Bihar, soft-spoken Nitish was its suave high priest. In a nutshell, the main contribution of these two politicians with a socialist background was to convert castes into miasma of vote politics. It's not that caste politics was absent before they arrived but they were so enamoured of it that governance took a back seat. While politicians were winning elections, Bihar was steadily losing ground and suffering of poor and migration of its youth continued.

      

       Politics is war by another means and everything is fair in war and all contenders are doing the worst to show their best face as in earlier elections. The weft and warp of the caste tapestry is on full display to entice voters. While NDA has promised Bijli-Paani -Sadak (Electricity,Water,Road) to State and Kamai,Padhai and Dawai (Job, Education and Medicine) to every family, Lalu/Nitish duo who have ruled Bihar for the last 25 years and their junior partner Congress are using Caste,Religion and Modi-bashing as their main weapons. A majority of voters are likely to vote along the caste lines with Upper Caste, Dalit and Mahadalit (38%) opting for NDA  and the formidable combination of  Yadav, Kurmi and Muslim (34%) backing GA. In addition, there are 16 parties either on their own or as part of Third and Left front like NCP, SP, BSP, Owaisi's MIM and strong Independent and rebel candidates in the fray. They have slim chance of success but may take away about 8 to 10% votes mainly from GA and bag around a dozen seats. But the special target of all parties is vulnerable 24% EBCs voters who are divided into 94 castes and scattered all over the state. However, the real swing may be provided by 20 million 'aspirational' youth ( below 30 years) and women voters casting their lot with party promising development and security who may be attracted by the unprecedented special package of  1.65 lakh crore for Bihar's development announced by PM Modi in August,2015. In short, youth, women and EBC voters will decide the winner. They are more likely to sway to Modi's catchy tunes of development, job opportunities and better infrastructures than listen to shrill diatribe of Lalu and Nitish against him.

After 4 rounds of voting for 186 seats it's a neck-to- neck race with NDA slightly ahead of GA  Polling for the remaining 57 seats will take place on 5th Nov in the sensitive Seemanchal area which has substantial Muslim population and there is a distinct possibility of polarization of votes. If that happens, NDA will romp home to victory. In the worst case scenario BJP wil score a century and NDA will win around 130 seats. In case the Juggernaut of Development crushes the Djinn of Regression they may reach 160 mark. Let us see who takes the mantle of Major Hector Munro on 8th November.

Democracy's Grand Carnival: Indian Elections 2014

The largest parliamentary election in human history for which  814 million people, larger than Europe's population, including 23 million in the age group of 18-19 years are eligible to vote will come to an end next week. This mammoth exercise spread over 9 phases from 7 April to 12 May to elect 543 members for the 16th Lok Sabha is being supervised by India's Election Commission with the help of nearly 10 million civilian and security personnel, 1.4 million EVM (Electronic Voting Machines) at the 930,000 polling stations across the country.

        Though a record number of 1674 political parties including 6 national and 47 regional are in the race, the main electoral battle is between two formations NDA and UPA led by BJP and Congress respectively. As of now the Narendra Modi-led BJP, the main component of NDA seems to be far ahead of other parties in this electoral battle. If various opinion polls are to be believed, he is the star performer for the party getting support from a wide section of society except the minorities. Minorities rarely vote for BJP but projection of Modi as their Prime Ministerial candidate has been like throwing the cat among the pigeons to the largest minority in this country. Muslim clerics and Christian evangelists who have no love lost for Modi appear to have exhorted their followers to vote more resolutely against BJP in this election. Muslims have significant number of votes (ranging from 11% to over 35%) in over 218 parliamentary constituencies and it is generally assumed that since 1990's they have preferred "tactical voting" going for the best possible candidates from the so-called secular parties who could defeat the BJP candidates. In a similar vein, those rooting for Modi have made concerted efforts to consolidate anti-corruption and pro-development votes particularly among country's youth, upper castes, non-yadav OBCs and urban middle class in BJP's favour. Heavy polling in crucial states can be attributed to both the polarization factor and enthusiastic first-time voters.

        There has been palpable difference between the campaigning styles of main parties. The high-pitched election campaign spearheaded by Modi seems to have swamped his opponents. He has come a long way since the days of his slip-ups on history in Oct/Nov 2013 looking more confident, more relaxed. A dedicated and well-knit team of technocrats, researchers and stage managers, many of them from his home state have worked diligently to create "Brand Modi". His brilliantly choreographed speeches and interviews with friendly TV channels portray him as someone who, though, of humble origin yet risen so high on the sheer strength of his vision, incorruptibility and good governance. In the process he has acquired a pan-India image becoming first among the equals in his own party and captured the eyes of millions who think he can eradicate corruption, revive economy and fast-track development projects. His promise to create millions of jobs appears enticing to unemployed youth. Since becoming BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate in Sept 2013 tireless Modi has crisscrossed 25 states in the country, addressed 437 public meetings, 1350 innovative 3-D rallies/road shows and over 4000 ingenious chai pe charcha with Namo campaign, collecting groundswell of support for himself. A phenomenal accomplishment! His larger-than-life projection on a grand scale has certainly boosted the electoral prospects of NDA's rainbow coalition of 29  parties.

        A weak and uncharismatic leadership made things difficult for the ruling party haunted by economy's blue devils and djinn of corruption. Its supporters were disheartened when many sitting members declined to fight election and chose the safe route of Rajya Sabha. Inability to stitch fruitful alliances in UP, AP and Tamil Nadu increased its isolation. Priyanka's late entry in the election fray to protect the family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli showed desperation. But the biggest mistake was to engage Modi in a hand to hand fight by launching personal attacks on him. 

        This election will be remembered not only for the innovative use of digital technology on a high scale and money's overpowering role but also for the brazen abuse of 'freedom of speech'. Rabble-rousers cutting across the party lines disgraced themselves by bringing down the political discourse to an unprecedented low level. There was plenty of vitriol in their shallow speeches but very little room for a gentle barb, sharp wit, light humour or even plain decency - so essential for healthy political debates in a parliamentary democracy. Mud-slinging, character assassination, name-calling and all possible weapons of dirty politics were used to blacken one's opponent and whole country watched in utter disbelief. The ugly face of politicians and their controversial theatrics displayed on visual media lifted their TRP ratings and increased viewers disgust. There were very few politicians who didn't indulge in the game of muckraking. According to famous Greek dramatist Aristophanes (446 BC - 386 BC) the characteristics of a popular politician include "a horrible voice, bad breeding and a vulgar manner". A majority of campaigners did even better.

        Coming back to the elections, whatever may be the final tally on May 16, Modi-mania generated on the promising slogan of development and corruption-free governance will prevail over Modi-phobia created by the votaries of secularism. Congress would be lucky to score a century of seats while their main rival BJP would be well-placed to score a double century enough to ensure Modi a place in the sun. Among the other stakeholders, TMC,  AIDMK, TDP, TRS and BJD will improve on their 2009 performance while SP, JD(U), NCP and DMK  will  shrink. The new entrant AAP should get good votes for their gutsy style of campaigning but very few seats. By all reckoning, NDA will form the next government even if they fall short of the magic figure of 272 as more parties would love to jump on their bandwagon.

http://rksingh167.blogspot.in/2013/11/destination-delhi-2014.html

Mission 2014 - Rahul Bhai Lage Raho

          So finally it is over. That is, the elections to UP and 4 other states touted by many as semi-final before the final is played in 2014 or even before if  it's convenient to the title holders.

          Like the IPL Cricket it gave livelihood to plenty, sound bytes to many, spread falsehood of some congenital liars, accorded knighthood on none and stardom to one. The star being Akhilesh Yadav, the new kid on the block. Matches are over, results are known and it is time for the post-mortem, better known as Chintan, Manthan or simple introspection.

          Of the 5 states, UP with 403 Assembly seats and 80 Parliamentary seats attracted maximum attention. Rightly so! This is the state which has provided maximum Kings or King-makers to the Republic of India during last 64 years and may do so in the near future.

         

          It was clear at the very early stage of electioneering that Mayawati afflicted by statue-mania, brazen corruption and Lucknow/Noida fixation will suffer huge loss. But it was not clear as to who will emerge victorious. The one-man army of Rahul Gandhi, the crown prince or Akhilesh a new face of refreshing innocence, assiduously mentored by the old warhorse Mulayam Yadav. He must have learnt some tricks of trade from the estranged uncle Amar Singh as well. While the former was handicapped by his deputies who were with him on the dais either for photo-ops, or for making shrill, sensational and desperate statements, the latter had the clear advantage of an active party cadre, a manifesto promising moon to everyone in the state and solid backing of a major chunk of Yadav and Muslim supporters.
An all-out attack on BSP's corruption led by Rahul Gandhi, BJP and others made things easier for his party. The near absence of organizational structure of Congress at the grass-root level to convert Rahul's hard work into votes and lack-lustre campaigning by local BJP leaders, smarting under the discomfiture, if not humiliation, caused to them by the import of Uma Bharti also helped SP as the non-committed voters who could have to gone either to Congress or BJP were driven in its welcoming arms.

         

          One vital difference between the campaigning styles of Rahul and Akhilesh was their body-language. While Akhilesh Bhaiya, to a typical youth from UP struck as a friendly guy, like someone from their own stock and developed an  instant rapport with them, Rahul Bhai appeared distant and somewhat on the glamour side. He was seen, heard but did not touch their hearts. His speeches highlighting Mayawati's corruption drew rapturous applauses only because he was stating a fact known to the audience. But when he wanted the crown of UP for his party they didn't oblige him. They knew very well that he is not interested in CM's chair and will not leave Delhi for Lucknow (the results of Amethi, Raebareli and Azamgarh are clear indicators). In these circumstances, Akhilesh appeared a safer bet to replace Mayawati.

          But all is not lost  for Rahul. Akhilesh may be the flavour of the season but it would be a tad difficult for him to sustain this phase for the next 2 years. UP is such a vast state with numerous intractable problems that once the dust of euphoria settles down, he will be fully bogged down tackling those (problems). Law and order will be his first big test. A majority of law- breakers (many of them now law-makers) also form his core support base and it may not be easy to convert them into non-violent monks overnight. There will be far too many expectations from him which he will find increasingly difficult to fulfill. Besides, people have a very short memory and tendency to get disenchanted very quickly is not unusual. Today's hero becomes villain in no time. Ask the Indian cricketers if there is any doubt. And it has been proven time and again on the Indian political landscape. Just remember the massive verdicts in 1971, 1977 and 1984 and what happened a few years after each of these. In UP itself the same people who put Mayawati on the throne 5 years ago by removing SP have brought them back to power in spite of her good record on law and order. The stink of corruption during her regime simply put them off.
The final in 2014 would be a different ball game altogether. Though many regional chieftains are smelling blood after Congress flop show, the prospects of a non-BJP and non-Congress government in Delhi are not very bright at the moment. Rahul Gandhi enjoys a distinct advantage over Akhilesh and many local satraps ruling in major states. Unlike many of them, he has a pan India image, is still young and has relatively unsullied image. What is missing in him is accessibility and humility, qualities so important for a politician to strike a chord with people. The bashful reluctance to open his mouth on major national issues is rather inexplicable. Instead of taking a firm stand on major issues either he keeps mum or proffers utopian solutions. This gives him an image of someone who is neither secure nor sincere. He has to make people trust him as a leader by reaching out to them not from the rostrum but face to face. Has to work really hard to enter the heart of the common man and earn their goodwill and affection. For this he will have to spend more time with the grass root workers from whom he can learn a lot about the ground realities. After all seeing is being different than being told. There is nothing wrong with Laptop; I-pad but there is no substitute to personal interactions with the party workers, because it is they who will fight the real battle. His party is full of leaders but they lack the mass-appeal at the national level. Some of them may manage to win on their own but they may not bring any substantial number of seats to the party kitty. This is something Rahul will have to do.

          There are still 2 years left and if within the next six months he is able to pick up and short-list about 300 good candidates who are bright, honest, hard-working and mostly from the local ranks, he would have done 25% of his job. The remaining seats he can leave to the party high command. The putative candidates can be asked to go in the field and work for the next 12 months in the respective areas. Six months before the elections their inputs will provide the agenda for the party manifesto. But before all that he has to show his bona fides and what better way than to get some of the things agitating the minds of average Indian sorted out. Lokpal Bill, Black Money, Women's Reservation bill, FDI in retails with necessary safeguards, infra-structure projects etc. are such issues which will be the real game changers. Policies which promise to ameliorate the pathetic conditions of farmers/lower and middle classes across the board need to be framed and implemented. If you work for the people, the party benefits. More than anything else your Neeyat (intention) will be under public gaze. And it is high time, that Dr. Manmohan Singh is given a free hand to tackle these matters. Do not forget he still carries the image of an honest and competent person and given full authority can repair his bruised reputation in next 2 years provided he does not have to carry an albatross of inertia around his neck. Between them, he and Pranab Mukherjee can persuade a good chunk of the opposition members to co-operate on the matter of national importance. Even if only some of these issues get resolved in the next 2 years the party will earn sufficient goodwill and garner enough votes.

          Also do not ignore the likes of Anna, Ramdev and other activists. Because if you follow people-friendly policies, they can cross-over to your side and become a valuable asset. Remember, tomorrow belongs to people who prepare for it today. You have to fight the forthcoming battle on your own with the help of a new team without the encumbrance of old mentors. What better way to humble the opposition except hard work, sincerity, good intention and humility rather than resorting to short-lived chicanery, street smartness and one-upmanship. So the chips may be down for you at the moment in the backdrop of last month's dismal performance in UP, but ignore the slings and arrows in the media because the journey to 2014 is still very long.  Get ready to take the first small step of spring-cleaning in the party by infusion of new blood. You can do it.