Battle for Bihar- Cast(e) in Development

Battle for Bihar 2015 – Cast(e) in Development  

A significant event took place on 22 October 1764 in Bihar. Known as Battle of Buxar it was fought between the English East India Company and Indian forces at Buxar. The company forces under the command of Major Hector Munro inflicted a crushing defeat on the combined forces of Nawab of Bengal Mir Qasim, Nawab of Awadh Shuja-ud-Daula and Mughal King Shah Alam II. This victory established the supremacy of English forces in Bengal, Bihar, Orissa and beyond.

  

251 years later, another kind of battle is being fought in Bihar. This is an electoral battle to be decided by 6.68 crore voters in Bihar. The main fight is between NDA forces spearheaded by PM Narendra Modi and a loose alliance of 3 parties called Mahagathbandhan or GA (Grand Alliance) under the joint command of bitter foes-turned-friends Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Both are tallest leaders among Yadav and Kurmi – dominant backward castes and have substantial following among Muslims. It is pertinent to mention that Nitish Kumar was aligned with NDA for 17 years (1996 – 2013) and was instrumental in bringing an end to Lalu's misrule in 2005. Miffed with anointment of Narendra Modi on Sept 13, 2013 as BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate for 2014 Parliamentary elections, he broke the coalition on the specious ground of 'secularism'. His image took a hit after his 'opportunistic' alliance with bete noire Lalu. 

The wily Lalu in his heydays was a brazen practitioner of caste politics and evolved an unbeatable MY (Muslim/Yadav) combo enabling his party RJD (read family) to rule for 15 years (1990-2005). With no aptitude for governance or development he let loose a reign of terror aka Jungle Raj driving millions of Bihari youths to other parts of India in search of education, job, security and better life. During his regime Dalits and Extremely Backward Castes (EBC) suffered , his Yadav fraternity prospered, corruption ruled the roost and criminals got emboldened making kidnapping for ransom a flourishing industry.  While the state was plunged in the darkness of anarchy, Lalu's main vocation was taking good care of his family - illiterate wife (whom he made Chief Minister for 5 years) and nine children. But he is more infamous for Fodder Scam case in which he was convicted for 5 years and barred from contesting elections. No wonder, Bihar which was considered the second- best governed state in India in 1953 in the Paul Appleby report slid down to bottom.

Lalu's party was dethroned in 2005 Assembly elections by a coalition of BJP and JD (U) led by Nitish Kumar. The biggest achievement of Nitish-led Govt in Bihar was to end Lalu's Jungle Raj.  His Govt initiated several social welfare schemes for the benefit of women, girl child and extremely poor sections besides constructing roads. The coalition ran smoothly primarily because BJP let Nitish run it and played second fiddle to him. Their good work and Nitish's clean image enabled the coalition to score a landslide victory in 2010 elections, winning 206 out of 243 seats with Lalu's party getting a paltry 22 seats. His Govt controlled crime and did basic development work like roads,schools etc but failed miserably to make headway in the core areas of power, industries and jobs. Mass copying in exams and appointment of thousands of fake teachers made a mockery of education while corruption remained untamed. All this while Nitish kept his image of a good administrator intact with the help of spin doctors. But in a caste-ridden state like Bihar, even Nitish couldn't resist the lure of caste politics. Guided by his vulpine political instincts, he did his own brand of social engineering by carving out EBC, Mahadalit and Pasmanda Muslim from OBC, Dalit & Muslim segments of electorate. So if boisterous Lalu known for his clownish antics was crude practitioner of caste politics in Bihar, soft-spoken Nitish was its suave high priest. In a nutshell, the main contribution of these two politicians with a socialist background was to convert castes into miasma of vote politics. It's not that caste politics was absent before they arrived but they were so enamoured of it that governance took a back seat. While politicians were winning elections, Bihar was steadily losing ground and suffering of poor and migration of its youth continued.

      

       Politics is war by another means and everything is fair in war and all contenders are doing the worst to show their best face as in earlier elections. The weft and warp of the caste tapestry is on full display to entice voters. While NDA has promised Bijli-Paani -Sadak (Electricity,Water,Road) to State and Kamai,Padhai and Dawai (Job, Education and Medicine) to every family, Lalu/Nitish duo who have ruled Bihar for the last 25 years and their junior partner Congress are using Caste,Religion and Modi-bashing as their main weapons. A majority of voters are likely to vote along the caste lines with Upper Caste, Dalit and Mahadalit (38%) opting for NDA  and the formidable combination of  Yadav, Kurmi and Muslim (34%) backing GA. In addition, there are 16 parties either on their own or as part of Third and Left front like NCP, SP, BSP, Owaisi's MIM and strong Independent and rebel candidates in the fray. They have slim chance of success but may take away about 8 to 10% votes mainly from GA and bag around a dozen seats. But the special target of all parties is vulnerable 24% EBCs voters who are divided into 94 castes and scattered all over the state. However, the real swing may be provided by 20 million 'aspirational' youth ( below 30 years) and women voters casting their lot with party promising development and security who may be attracted by the unprecedented special package of  1.65 lakh crore for Bihar's development announced by PM Modi in August,2015. In short, youth, women and EBC voters will decide the winner. They are more likely to sway to Modi's catchy tunes of development, job opportunities and better infrastructures than listen to shrill diatribe of Lalu and Nitish against him.

After 4 rounds of voting for 186 seats it's a neck-to- neck race with NDA slightly ahead of GA  Polling for the remaining 57 seats will take place on 5th Nov in the sensitive Seemanchal area which has substantial Muslim population and there is a distinct possibility of polarization of votes. If that happens, NDA will romp home to victory. In the worst case scenario BJP wil score a century and NDA will win around 130 seats. In case the Juggernaut of Development crushes the Djinn of Regression they may reach 160 mark. Let us see who takes the mantle of Major Hector Munro on 8th November.

 FDI in Retail in India --- Incredible Myth or Plausible Reality

  

FDI in retail (100% in multi-brands) is our current national obsession. To some (read middlemen/ traders lobby) it would be a calamity, will create massive unemployment, increase inflation, bring misery to the millions, mostly poor, in this country and, therefore, totally unwelcome. To many (the much-harassed consumers, high-end farmers and corporates) it would be a much-needed revolutionary step in the right direction, just a trifle short of panacea. But first the facts and the ground-realities.

India has nearly 600 million farmers, 1200 million consumers and 5 million traders. In a written reply to the Parliament in April, 2012, it has been stated by the Government that India is now World's 2nd largest producer of Vegetables and Fruits after China with a total production of 77.52 million tons of fruits and 149.61 million tons of vegetables in 2011-12. During 2010-11, we also exported vegetables and fruits to many countries to the tune of Rs. 3856 crores (US $ 760 million). However, if we care to read a report of Central Institute for Post Harvest Engineering and Technology, Ludhiana published in 2010 it says that nearly 18% of our vegetables and fruits production worth Rs.44000 crores (US$ 8 billion)are wasted annually due to lack of cold storage facilities and other factors. For such a huge country like India there are only 5400 cold storages with nearly half of them in UP, Punjab and W. Bengal. 4875 of these belong to the private sector, 400 run by the co-operatives and only 125 by the public sector units. As stated by the union Minister of state for Food and Agriculture only 2% of the total horticulture production in the country is being processed now as compared to 15% in China and 8% in the Asia-Pacific countries. For a country with over 300 million people below poverty line this loss is colossal and avoidable. The absence of a farm to fork retail policy compels the consumers to pay a heavy premium for shortages and wastages.

The stranglehold of middlemen and greedy traders is at the root of rural poverty and a major cause for the pathetic condition of the farmers all over India. Fruits and vegetables which are perishable commodities pass through 5 to 6 layers of middlemen and due to addition of margin at every stage there is a huge difference in the farm gate, wholesale and retail price. So a humble potato for which a humbler farmer has to console himself with a price of Rs 2 a Kilogram will cost the consumer ,the last link of this complex  chain, anything between Rs 10 to 12. A cool profit of 600% to the dreaded middlemen blessed with a Midas touch. The middlemen and some traders are responsible for hoarding and black marketeering to a great extent.

 Indian farmer who has earned a good name for his innovative skills, fortitude and immense capacity to work hard in adverse conditions not only in his own country but over a dozen countries in the Asia, Africa, Caribbean and North America fails to get a fair price for his toils and sustained labour at home even after 65 years of Independence. Every year they are fleeced by the unscrupulous middlemen and traders as neither the farmers/producers nor various government agencies are in a position to ensure proper marketing of products. The only practical solution to mitigate their plight is direct and bulk purchase by the large retailers.

 This is why we need 100% FDI in multi-brand food-based retail. Contrary to what the skeptics may say even they know within their hearts that the foreign retailers would bring back-end infrastructure via: - cold chains, refrigeration, packaging, storage, transportation and introduce much-needed efficiency and modern practices in the supply and distribution chain. They will procure in bulk and sell at competitive price. Their entry will promote agricultural growth by increasing farmers income, creating efficient  Small and Medium Industries, providing several million jobs in the small and medium industries as well as logistics sectors for both the skilled and unskilled unemployed, enhance manpower and skill development, bring additional revenue to the exchequer, save massive wastage which would become available for domestic use/exports. Surely, the big MNC giants like Wal-Mart, Tesco, Carrefour and others are not coming to India for charity. They too will make profit but not even remotely comparable to what the Indian middlemen/traders are making. Further, they would not dare to sell the consumer sub-standard or adulterated foodstuff or pesticide-ridden fruits and vegetables. The unhygienic conditions of the shops and problem of under-weighing would also disappear. All these benefits will accrue to the consumers.

Some of the countries who have benefited by allowing 100% FDI in retail include China, Russia, Indonesia, Thailand, South Africa, Brazil and Argentina. However, before taking a plunge the government will have to  evolve clear-cut policies that provides a level-playing field to foreign and Indian big players and protect small retailers by having a legal framework that prohibits retail giants, both Indian and foreign, to indulge in predatory pricing and other unethical practices. Since the predominant retail (up to 98%) is in the unorganized sector and consists of Mom and Pop shops, convenience (Kirana) stores, street hawkers, peddlers on the wheels and pavements, village markets, it is imperative that  an enforcement mechanism is in  place  to ensure that small retailers are not dislocated by unfair means by the large ones. In particular, the foreign investors should be asked to make a real contribution to the development of infrastructure, logistics and agro-processing units. Then, it would be a win-win situation for everyone except the middlemen. The farmer gets a better price for his labour, consumers pay lesser price for a quality product with more variety to choose from. For the Small retailer it would be business as usual with a smaller margin but higher productivity and better services. The government earns more revenue and the nation and its people get world-class infrastructure.

FDI in multi-brand retail which could be one of the sunrise sectors for the Indian economy is a political hot potato right now and major opposition parties would love to upset Congress's apple cart if it finally decides to go ahead. It would be a tad difficult to evolve a political consensus and get all political parties on board. But for the ruling party suffering from the ill-effects of one scam after another in the last 3 years, election reverses in several states,  acquiring dubious tags of '' policy  paralysis'',  ''direction-less'', ''underachiever''  and the next general election looming large,  it would be a good idea to  bite the bullet on this thorny issue. They should engage with every party and try to get this through by consensus, if possible. Who knows they might repeat their performance of July 2008 on Indo-US Nuclear deal. If their pull, pressure and persuasion work with the usual suspects, they will triumph and the win would energise their demoralised cadre. The main opposition party should handle this issue with gravitas. Any faux pax and they would be reduced to calling the clinched FDI deal as sour grapes. In the bargain, they would also lose a large chunk of their main supporters - urban middle class.