Though a record number of 1674 political parties including 6 national and 47 regional are in the race, the main electoral battle is between two formations NDA and UPA led by BJP and Congress respectively. As of now the Narendra Modi-led BJP, the main component of NDA seems to be far ahead of other parties in this electoral battle. If various opinion polls are to be believed, he is the star performer for the party getting support from a wide section of society except the minorities. Minorities rarely vote for BJP but projection of Modi as their Prime Ministerial candidate has been like throwing the cat among the pigeons to the largest minority in this country. Muslim clerics and Christian evangelists who have no love lost for Modi appear to have exhorted their followers to vote more resolutely against BJP in this election. Muslims have significant number of votes (ranging from 11% to over 35%) in over 218 parliamentary constituencies and it is generally assumed that since 1990's they have preferred "tactical voting" going for the best possible candidates from the so-called secular parties who could defeat the BJP candidates. In a similar vein, those rooting for Modi have made concerted efforts to consolidate anti-corruption and pro-development votes particularly among country's youth, upper castes, non-yadav OBCs and urban middle class in BJP's favour. Heavy polling in crucial states can be attributed to both the polarization factor and enthusiastic first-time voters.
There has been palpable difference between the campaigning styles of main parties. The high-pitched election campaign spearheaded by Modi seems to have swamped his opponents. He has come a long way since the days of his slip-ups on history in Oct/Nov 2013 looking more confident, more relaxed. A dedicated and well-knit team of technocrats, researchers and stage managers, many of them from his home state have worked diligently to create "Brand Modi". His brilliantly choreographed speeches and interviews with friendly TV channels portray him as someone who, though, of humble origin yet risen so high on the sheer strength of his vision, incorruptibility and good governance. In the process he has acquired a pan-India image becoming first among the equals in his own party and captured the eyes of millions who think he can eradicate corruption, revive economy and fast-track development projects. His promise to create millions of jobs appears enticing to unemployed youth. Since becoming BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate in Sept 2013 tireless Modi has crisscrossed 25 states in the country, addressed 437 public meetings, 1350 innovative 3-D rallies/road shows and over 4000 ingenious chai pe charcha with Namo campaign, collecting groundswell of support for himself. A phenomenal accomplishment! His larger-than-life projection on a grand scale has certainly boosted the electoral prospects of NDA's rainbow coalition of 29 parties.
A weak and
uncharismatic leadership made things difficult for the ruling party haunted by
economy's blue devils and djinn of corruption. Its supporters were disheartened
when many sitting members declined to fight election and chose the safe route
of Rajya Sabha. Inability to stitch fruitful alliances in UP, AP and Tamil Nadu
increased its isolation. Priyanka's late entry in the election fray to
protect the family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli showed desperation. But
the biggest mistake was to engage Modi in a hand to hand fight by launching
personal attacks on him.
This election will be remembered not only for the innovative use of digital technology on a high scale and money's overpowering role but also for the brazen abuse of 'freedom of speech'. Rabble-rousers cutting across the party lines disgraced themselves by bringing down the political discourse to an unprecedented low level. There was plenty of vitriol in their shallow speeches but very little room for a gentle barb, sharp wit, light humour or even plain decency - so essential for healthy political debates in a parliamentary democracy. Mud-slinging, character assassination, name-calling and all possible weapons of dirty politics were used to blacken one's opponent and whole country watched in utter disbelief. The ugly face of politicians and their controversial theatrics displayed on visual media lifted their TRP ratings and increased viewers disgust. There were very few politicians who didn't indulge in the game of muckraking. According to famous Greek dramatist Aristophanes (446 BC - 386 BC) the characteristics of a popular politician include "a horrible voice, bad breeding and a vulgar manner". A majority of campaigners did even better.
Coming back to the elections, whatever may be the final tally on May 16, Modi-mania generated on the promising slogan of development and corruption-free governance will prevail over Modi-phobia created by the votaries of secularism. Congress would be lucky to score a century of seats while their main rival BJP would be well-placed to score a double century enough to ensure Modi a place in the sun. Among the other stakeholders, TMC, AIDMK, TDP, TRS and BJD will improve on their 2009 performance while SP, JD(U), NCP and DMK will shrink. The new entrant AAP should get good votes for their gutsy style of campaigning but very few seats. By all reckoning, NDA will form the next government even if they fall short of the magic figure of 272 as more parties would love to jump on their bandwagon.
http://rksingh167.blogspot.in/2013/11/destination-delhi-2014.html
