ONE YEAR IN HOT PURSUIT OF ACCHE DIN

One Year In Hot Pursuit Of Acche Din

One year is a good time to make an objective assessment of the performance of a Govt. with a life span of five years. Something like the first 10 overs in a 50 over cricket match. NDA led by charismatic Narendra Modi completes one year in office next week. In a diverse and complex country of 1.25 billion there would be million voices on what he has done or what he didn't to redeem the promises he made during the elections last year. Let the facts speak for themselves. 

Positives

Increased FDI in Insurance, Defence, Railways and Construction Projects, more funds for States, online transparent auction of Spectrum, Coal yielding over Rs 3 lakh crores, Nuclear Liability Agreement, bringing down inflation from 8.59% (April, 2014) to 4.87% (April, 2015), deregulation of Diesel prices and path-breaking law on Black Money to name a few. All welcome steps as are the Govt's herculean efforts of dismantling the dysfunctional system of procedural clearances to attract heavy investments in India which ranks 142 out of 189 countries on the ease of doing business index.

A pity that 2 major bills – Land acquisition & GST bills, considered key enablers to speed up the economic reforms process, have been delayed in the face of strong protests by Congress party passing through the confused state of cognitive dissonance. These could have activated the economy as India is poised for stable growth momentum.

Negatives

However, everything is not so hunky-dory. Modi's failure to rein in habitual offenders from raising, time and again, inane issues like love jihad and ghar-wapsi is inexplicable. The reprehensible speeches of these loudmouths, besides causing unease and anxiety among some sections of minorities go against party's committed goal of Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas. A stern leader like Modi should have chastised them and saved party from adverse publicity in domestic & international media. Publicity is essential in democracy to keep in touch with people yet its overdose can be counter-productive, as it happened in monogrammed suit controversy. But real areas of concern are high food prices, new jobs and farmers’ apprehension on Land bill.

Works in progress

The innovative financial inclusions steps like Jan Dhan Yojna (Banking the unbanked), MUDRA (Funding the unfunded) and social security schemes Jeevan Suraksha Yojana aim at empowering the farmers, small businessmen, lower middle class and vulnerable sections of the society. But the real game-changer could be the saplings of economic growth like 5 new ultra mega power projects of 4000 MW each and heavy infrastructure projects in roads, railways, airports & ports besides the more ambitious ventures like Make in India, Digital India, Sagarmala and Smart cities being planted by his Govt. These will need adequate time, huge money and constant monitoring to develop into robust fruit-bearing trees. Add Swach Bharat and Namami Ganga projects to the list and one gets an idea of Modi's grand vision for a modern India. The bottom line is Modi Sarkar is as high on performance as it is on promises. It would, however, be naive to believe that all this can happen in a trice. You can get Maggi noodles in 2 minutes but not a sumptuous biryani.

Corruption

Govt's 2 bold initiatives to tackle this menace has been stringent laws on Black Money stashed abroad and proposed Benami bill to nab tax-dodgers and creators of domestic black money. Its decision to treat graft as a 'heinous' crime, punishment for both bribe-takers and bribe-givers up to 7 years, acceptance of non-monetary gratification as 'bribe' and 2-year time-frame for completion of graft cases will be enabling steps to curb corruption in upper echelons. But it is brazen and widespread corruption at the level of junior officials in municipality, police, transport, hospitals/schools, income tax etc. which directly affects millions on a daily basis that should be stemmed on a war footing with the help of latest technology and honest officials.

     A daunting task but Modi can do it. He sounds credible with his statements like - "Na khaunga Na khane dunga", "Rules are same for Mukesh Ambani and common man", "his Govt will have a level playing field for all and he will not spoon-feed anyone". These may not be palatable to those who have thrived all these years within the protected confines of crony-capitalism but genuine investors would be reassured. 

Population

All gains of economic bonanza will go waste if our ever rising population is not controlled. A new population policy which is neither coercive nor cosmetic is required. It can have dollops of financial, educational medical and social incentives for having a small family. Campaigns like Beti Bachao Beti Padhao can be very useful. For political reasons, a revolutionary step may not be feasible at the moment but this is as serious an issue as rampant corruption and has many deleterious side effects like pollution, poverty, unemployment, crime etc.

Foreign Policy

This is one area where even his trenchant critics would concede that he has been successful in improving India's international image. His visit to 19 countries including 5 G-7 (US, Japan, Canada, France & Germany) have been very fruitful for India's economic development and political convergence and likely to bring tidy investment and latest technology to India, Modi has enthused millions of Indian diaspora during these visits and has become a cult-figure among them. He has also cemented ties with our neighbours, except Pakistan which continues to play the old game of one step forward, two steps back.

     Much was expected from Modi's 3-day state visit to China and Modi didn't disappoint. Both sides worked meticulously to make it a memorable visit. The talks were candid, constructive and comprehensive and a wide consensus seems to have been reached between two countries to put history and geography on a back burner and focus on culture, chemistry and economics (26 deals worth $22 billion) and move bilateral relations to a new high. "Seize the day, seize the hour" could be the new buzzword. Indian President's participation in Victory day celebrations in Moscow and signing of Chabahar port deal with Iran despite US warning show a confident India. The stupendous job of evacuations of thousands of people trapped in war-torn Iraq and Yemen and earthquake-hit Nepal including nationals of 45 countries earned us international acclaim and gratitude. Foreign Ministry on the move with great aplomb.

Party

After stunning victories in Maharashtra, Haryana, J&K and Jharkhand, BJP fell flat on its face in Delhi. In the backdrop of Delhi debacle, Amit Shah considered Modi's major-domo in the party can't afford to lose in Bihar. Testing times for him, his mentor and party. Modi's cabinet may not be "woefully short of talent" but there could be many square pegs in round holes. Summer would be good time for a minor reshuffle. Also a Sujh Bujh Ki Sarkar will avoid arrogance and embrace modesty in its day-to-day business. While arrogance magnifies a lapse, modesty reduces it.

Leader

Modi may not have the profundity of scholarship but keeps his feet on the ground and head in the clouds and joins them together. This rare quality gives him a depth of insight into intricate problems. Self-praise comes naturally to a politician and he is no exception but no politician works as hard as he does. During US visit in Sept, 2014 he worked while fasting and looked amazingly fresh. A real workaholic. He is also a good motivator as is evident from the way his appeal for surrender of LPG subsidy struck a chord among country's cynical affluent society. Modi's lavish praise of some of his cabinet colleagues and his advice to senior bureaucrats "to lead a tension-free life and spend quality time with their family members" were pleasant surprises.

Modi Govt's intentions for good governance is not in question but the core issue is speedy implementation of job-intensive mega projects capable of providing 5 to 6 million new jobs in next 2 years. To use the cricket analogy, Team Modi has made a solid start on a sticky wicket scoring 70 runs for no loss in first 10 overs - no scam, no scandal. But expectation from Modi is so high that even such a spectacular performance is not enough and people are asking for more.

Beginning Of Modi Era - The First 100 Days

The idea of showing achievements of a new government in its first 100 days in office is credited to famous American President FDR Roosevelt. He set this benchmark for himself in 1933.Since then many Presidents and Prime Ministers world over have followed this political ritual. India, a country of rituals, is no exception to this. The Govt led by Narendra Modi which took over the reins of power on 27^th May 2014, after a landslide win in the last election will be completing 100 days next week..

Early Days

Narendra Modi got off to a flying start. His gestures of bowing down and touching the ground with his forehead at the entrance of the Parliament on 20^th May 2014 or placing party and senior leaders above himself in his emotional address to party leaders in his first speech in the Parliament house or inviting SAARC leaders for his swearing-in ceremony were unconventional yet pleasant and improved the atmospherics after a bitterly fought election. His small cabinet, composed of both seasoned and hand-picked first-timers, evoked good response.Once in PM's chair he did not take much time in toning down the administration. Heralding a new ' work culture'  Ministers and senior officers were directed to keep their Ministries building clean, weed out obsolete records, maintain punctuality in their offices and undertake exercise to do away with archaic laws. To discourage nepotism Ministers were advised not to appoint their relatives as personal staff.  Setting up a SIT headed by Justice M B Shah to unearth black money was Modi cabinet's first action. His direct talk to country's top bureaucrats was a bold and rational move. He shared with them his discomfort with red tape and procedural delays and his firm belief in the concept of "Minimum government, Maximum governance" and mantra of transparency, accountability and implementation. Who will know better than him that an honest, competent and fearless bureaucrat, an endangered species, is worth his weight in gold and needs to be protected, empowered, encouraged and tasked for good governance? 

Economy

Corruption and development were two main planks on which last election was fought and won by Modi and his team. For this reason, Budget 2014 presented by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley was expected to be a trendsetter for Acche Din (Good days). But in the backdrop of poor economic parameters and likelihood of a deficient monsoon he thought it prudent to continue with what was good in earlier dispensation and bring some pragmatic changes Giving tax relief to senior citizens /middle class and continuing with welfare schemes for poor people, he has also accepted challenge to bring down fiscal deficit to 4.1%.To strike a balance between growth and inclusive development he has prepared a Pro- poor and pro-biz  cocktail with main ingredient of foreign investment -  FDI in railways (100%),  in defence (49%) and relaxing FDI norms in real estate sector for low cost housing. as Govt needs infusion of massive funds to create infrastructure and service welfare schemes for poor.

Administration

    Since taking charge on May 27, 2014 Modi Govt has moved with policy formulations to bring down food prices, reduce inflation, curb corruption and improve security to women. Passage of National Judicial Appointments Commission (NJAC) bill to ensure that only people with merit are appointed as judges to higher courts and   proposal to set up 1800 fast-track courts to speed up delivery of justice are such steps. Similarly, online green clearance for industrial and infra-structure projects and online monitoring of industrial waste will reduce human intervention and bring transparency. But real game-changers would be a slew of ambitious ventures like  ' Sagarmala ' (String of ports) project for development of India's ports, creating Special Economic Zones, providing rail, road, air, waterways connectivity with the hinterland with linkages of cold storage and warehousing facilities,  'PM Jan Dhan Yojna’ to help the poor open a bank account with debit card facility and insurance cover of Rs 1 lakh and several other benefits,  ' Digital India' aiming to connect 2.50 lakh village panchayats with high speed broadband connectivity by 2017, creation of 100 'Smart' cities, rejuvenation of ' Heritage Cities' and 'Make in India' drive to boost manufacturing sector. For quicker and inclusive growth  and to translate his great vision of  Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (Together with all, Development for all) into reality such job-intensive mega projects with enormous potential to provide direct benefit to millions of poor and middle class are better options than UPA government's dole-based and corruption- ridden welfare schemes like MNREGA, Mid-day meal which should be either restructured to plug 'leakages' or discontinued to save tax-payers money.

Independence Day Speech

Modi is a great communicator with people and took full advantage of this skill in his address to the nation from the ramparts of historic Lal Qila (Red Fort) on 15th Aug, 2014 His extempore speech delivered in a crisp, credible and home-spun language touched on many unpleasant issues plaguing India like rapes and women's safety, female foeticide, cleanliness and sanitation, communalism and casteism etc and would have won millions of hearts. Although some of his diehard fans may have been dismayed by the absence of belligerency in his speech, he rightly chose to speak the language of consensus and reconciliation by complimenting all previous governments, Prime Ministers and even State governments for country' development and assuring everyone that " he wants to move forward not on the basis of majority but on consensus". Calling himself a Pradhan Sevak (Prime servant) he praised bureaucrats for their calibre and competence and opposition members for their cooperation in the smooth functioning of Parliament. No show of bravado but plenty of confidence. His open confession - “I am an outsider to Delhi but got an insider view in last two months" added a dash of humour. 

Foreign Relations

Narendra Modi's first visit as PM to Bhutan (June 15-16), our friendliest neighbour, helped in cementing India's ' unique and special relationship' with her. He stated that ' strong and prosperous' India can help smaller countries in the region. His visit to attend 6th BRICS( Brazil,Russia,India,China and South Africa) summit in Brazil (July 15) gave him first lesson in the multi-lateral diplomacy. Chinese President Xi Jinping in his first meeting with Modi remarked cryptically that “when India and China meet the whole world watches". During his meeting with Russian President Putin, Modi hailed Russia as “our country's greatest friend”. Putin reciprocated by saying that both countries are “in full consensus on working together on the international stage and on matters of economic and defence cooperation" among others. But the crowning glory of the summit was creation of NDB(National Development Bank) by BRICS nations with an initial capital of US$ 50 billion, headqurters in Shanghai, an Indian as its first president and no veto power. On his Nepal visit (Aug 3- 4), first by an Indian PM since 1997  he made a positive impact on its people, leaders, and more importantly opposition Maoist leaders, eliciting tongue-in-cheek remark from China's state-run Xinhua Agency  that " although Modi's visit was successful and generated lot of goodwill but the soft loan of US$ 1 billion is insufficient".But the real expectations are from his forthcoming visits to Japan and USA and Jinping's visit to India all in a matter of four exciting weeks. Economic diplomacy is close to Modi's heart and he will get enough chance to earn his spurs during these crucial visits  An interesting month of diplomatic opportunities for all four countries. Let us see who gets what and from whom. Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj has proved to be a great asset to Modi and had fruitful visits to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Singapore and Vietnam.

Future

A fast learner Modi loves to convey his ideas through catchy phrases on special occasions. Sample these - 3 D’s (Democracy, Demography, Demand), the 3 S’s (Skill, Scale and Speed) and 5 T’s (Tradition, Talent, Tourism, Trade and Technology). He is also very methodical and his ' method' mannerisms look as real and convincing as the 'method' acting of famous Hollywood actors like Marlon Brando, De Niro and Daniel Day-Lewis. He may be grappling with hundred of complex issues but has uncanny ability to overcome them with the help of  dedicated bureaucrats and effective ministers and fulfil his promise of developing India on a war footing. Elevation of his confidant Amit Shah as the party's youngest president has given more power to his elbow and brought both the party and government on the same page.  Critics may scream, detractors (both inside and outside) may whine but Modi's grip is now stronger than their gripe. Unlike his predecessor he has both absolute power and total accountability. Coming back to governance, his government is doing well  by laying out a viable road map for all-round development and pushing hard for their completion at a break-neck speed. However,the real challenge lies in tackling the spectre of corruption. He will have to crack down on it with all power at his command. The earlier the better. Stinging judicial verdicts in big-ticket corruption cases involving crony capitalists,greedy politicians and corrupt officials give him a strong handle to deal with this social cancer.He is eminently suitable to accomplish this seemingly insuperable task for three reasons- his reputation as an honest and incorruptible politician, no family,friends or relatives to promote and his agenda to see a clean India, literally and metaphorically Come what may he has to keep his promise made in Kargil on Aug 12,2014 ' Na Khaoonga, Na Khane Dunga' ( Neither will I eat,nor I will let others eat) and move India from a low 94th rank among 177 corrupt nations to around 50 in the next 5 years.That will be a matchless achievement.  

The promised 'Happy Days' may not be here yet but his first 100 days in office  have been 'Mood Changer' and created an ambience of 'Happy Hours’ for millions of Indians. Things will look much brighter in a year or so.

Democracy's Grand Carnival: Indian Elections 2014

The largest parliamentary election in human history for which  814 million people, larger than Europe's population, including 23 million in the age group of 18-19 years are eligible to vote will come to an end next week. This mammoth exercise spread over 9 phases from 7 April to 12 May to elect 543 members for the 16th Lok Sabha is being supervised by India's Election Commission with the help of nearly 10 million civilian and security personnel, 1.4 million EVM (Electronic Voting Machines) at the 930,000 polling stations across the country.

        Though a record number of 1674 political parties including 6 national and 47 regional are in the race, the main electoral battle is between two formations NDA and UPA led by BJP and Congress respectively. As of now the Narendra Modi-led BJP, the main component of NDA seems to be far ahead of other parties in this electoral battle. If various opinion polls are to be believed, he is the star performer for the party getting support from a wide section of society except the minorities. Minorities rarely vote for BJP but projection of Modi as their Prime Ministerial candidate has been like throwing the cat among the pigeons to the largest minority in this country. Muslim clerics and Christian evangelists who have no love lost for Modi appear to have exhorted their followers to vote more resolutely against BJP in this election. Muslims have significant number of votes (ranging from 11% to over 35%) in over 218 parliamentary constituencies and it is generally assumed that since 1990's they have preferred "tactical voting" going for the best possible candidates from the so-called secular parties who could defeat the BJP candidates. In a similar vein, those rooting for Modi have made concerted efforts to consolidate anti-corruption and pro-development votes particularly among country's youth, upper castes, non-yadav OBCs and urban middle class in BJP's favour. Heavy polling in crucial states can be attributed to both the polarization factor and enthusiastic first-time voters.

        There has been palpable difference between the campaigning styles of main parties. The high-pitched election campaign spearheaded by Modi seems to have swamped his opponents. He has come a long way since the days of his slip-ups on history in Oct/Nov 2013 looking more confident, more relaxed. A dedicated and well-knit team of technocrats, researchers and stage managers, many of them from his home state have worked diligently to create "Brand Modi". His brilliantly choreographed speeches and interviews with friendly TV channels portray him as someone who, though, of humble origin yet risen so high on the sheer strength of his vision, incorruptibility and good governance. In the process he has acquired a pan-India image becoming first among the equals in his own party and captured the eyes of millions who think he can eradicate corruption, revive economy and fast-track development projects. His promise to create millions of jobs appears enticing to unemployed youth. Since becoming BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate in Sept 2013 tireless Modi has crisscrossed 25 states in the country, addressed 437 public meetings, 1350 innovative 3-D rallies/road shows and over 4000 ingenious chai pe charcha with Namo campaign, collecting groundswell of support for himself. A phenomenal accomplishment! His larger-than-life projection on a grand scale has certainly boosted the electoral prospects of NDA's rainbow coalition of 29  parties.

        A weak and uncharismatic leadership made things difficult for the ruling party haunted by economy's blue devils and djinn of corruption. Its supporters were disheartened when many sitting members declined to fight election and chose the safe route of Rajya Sabha. Inability to stitch fruitful alliances in UP, AP and Tamil Nadu increased its isolation. Priyanka's late entry in the election fray to protect the family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli showed desperation. But the biggest mistake was to engage Modi in a hand to hand fight by launching personal attacks on him. 

        This election will be remembered not only for the innovative use of digital technology on a high scale and money's overpowering role but also for the brazen abuse of 'freedom of speech'. Rabble-rousers cutting across the party lines disgraced themselves by bringing down the political discourse to an unprecedented low level. There was plenty of vitriol in their shallow speeches but very little room for a gentle barb, sharp wit, light humour or even plain decency - so essential for healthy political debates in a parliamentary democracy. Mud-slinging, character assassination, name-calling and all possible weapons of dirty politics were used to blacken one's opponent and whole country watched in utter disbelief. The ugly face of politicians and their controversial theatrics displayed on visual media lifted their TRP ratings and increased viewers disgust. There were very few politicians who didn't indulge in the game of muckraking. According to famous Greek dramatist Aristophanes (446 BC - 386 BC) the characteristics of a popular politician include "a horrible voice, bad breeding and a vulgar manner". A majority of campaigners did even better.

        Coming back to the elections, whatever may be the final tally on May 16, Modi-mania generated on the promising slogan of development and corruption-free governance will prevail over Modi-phobia created by the votaries of secularism. Congress would be lucky to score a century of seats while their main rival BJP would be well-placed to score a double century enough to ensure Modi a place in the sun. Among the other stakeholders, TMC,  AIDMK, TDP, TRS and BJD will improve on their 2009 performance while SP, JD(U), NCP and DMK  will  shrink. The new entrant AAP should get good votes for their gutsy style of campaigning but very few seats. By all reckoning, NDA will form the next government even if they fall short of the magic figure of 272 as more parties would love to jump on their bandwagon.

http://rksingh167.blogspot.in/2013/11/destination-delhi-2014.html

AAP's Music: Symphony of Hope or Cacophony of Despair

        AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) led by tenacious Arvind Kejriwal arrived on Indian political horizon with a bang on Dec 8, 2013 winning 28 out of 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly elections finishing behind BJP who got 32 seats. The vanquished party (Congress) in a tactical move, not liked by many Congressmen offered them unconditional support and Arvind Kejriwal became 7th Chief Minister of Delhi embarking on his maiden legislative journey amid great excitement of his supporters and grave concern of detractors.

        Getting to the chair was the easy part, it seems now, as problems started cropping up in quick succession mostly owing to their callowness, over-confidence and on few occasions  sheer insolence. The antics of Kejriwal and some of his ministerial colleagues suddenly elevated to power and drunk on the heady cocktail of ambition, arrogance and inexperience created a near mayhem in Delhi for two weeks of their rule and the media had a busy time. Bizarre incidents of travel by metro for oath ceremony, Janata darbar fiasco, controversy on Kejriwal's accommodation and security, vigilante-style functioning of his ministers, sitting on dharna by Chief Minister took the shine off from its stunning electoral debut. Reports in media of fake members joining the party and expulsion of a MLA who was denied ministerial berth further tarnished the fledgling party's image and may dissuade potential members.

        Leaving behind those nightmarish episodes, Kejriwal should focus on administration so that he can showcase his achievements of first 100 days in power- the usual honeymoon period allowed to a new government. As he does not have a magic lamp, he should set a modest target and focus on those items from his extensive laundry list which are less complicated and can be done within a short period. Apart from water, power and public transport, issues affecting the lives of common man like Govt hospitals/schools, roads, women's security, rain water harvesting should be on his menu. Rather than tinkering with the existing system, he could open up the system itself and show its functioning to the public using modern IT tools, something like an open kitchen. But he should refrain from conducting official business in maidans and stadiums instead of  Assembly and  Secretariat. Resorting to acts of symbolism, populism and gimmickry will not fetch his party extra votes and he may become all hat and no cattle. Unguarded comments (on Kashmir and Maoists), sweeping remarks (on corrupt politicians), indiscriminate announcements (on Khap panchayat) will spread confusion and bitterness. He will be lost in the warren of narrow vision if he tried his hands at too many things. Kejriwal would do well to remember the golden saying, "One thing at a time and that done well, is a very good rule as many can tell".

        A word about the man of the moment - Kejriwal started his career in 1989 with Tata Steel after finishing IIT, joined IRS in 1995, founded an NGO Parivartan in 1999 while still in Income Tax Department which he left in 2006, was associated with RTI, Jan Lok Pal movements, participated in Anna Hazare Movement in 2011 and parted ways to form Aam Aadmi Party in Nov 2012. He is young, courageous, street smart and media savvy but the way he fell out with his mentors like Aruna Roy and Anna Hazare and former comrades like Kiran Bedi betrays his individualistic streak.

        Kejriwal is not an 'Anarchist' and after becoming CM, he is no longer an 'Activist'. He should also not dream of bringing a political revolution in India because he lacks the vision, stature and charisma of intellectual giants from Trotsky (Permanent revolution - 1905) to JP (Total Revolution - 1974) who exhorted the masses to bring a revolutionary change in people's life but failed to bring the new dawn. Even movements like Arab Spring (2010) and Anna Hazare (2011) which engendered mass protests and generated great hope could not succeed in improving the living conditions of common man. As a full-fledged politician his priority should be to provide a clean government, devoid of functional anarchy, in Delhi. It would not be easy as both his unwilling accomplice (Congress) and those who missed the chair by a whisker (BJP) will make things difficult for him.

        To replicate the Delhi experiment in other parts of India, he would require a cadre-based party which may take years to build but that is the right way to go. A proper screening would eliminate fake members and prevent those trying to leap on its bandwagon. Past experience has shown that political leaders and parties take time to grow and mature. Today's strong regional parties like SP, BSP, AIDMK, TMC, TDP, BJD and their leaders have been in existence for decades. Drawn into the vortex of real politics, always a treacherous terrain, Kejriwal will need patience and nerve to play a long innings as in a 5-day test match rather than its shorter version of T-20. If AAP can win even a dozen seats in 2014 elections and about 5% popular votes on its own, people will forget its cacophonous beginning and hope for an amazing symphony in 2019. Failure to do so will merit soul-searching and taking AAP back to basics or disband it altogether and rejoin the biradari of activists. 

Also see: The Kejriwal phenomenon

DESTINATION DELHI: 2014

The Sun goes down, the Stars come out

And all that counts is here and now

My Universe will never be the same

I'm glad you came.

          Narendra Modi is the new rising star on India's political firmament. From a humble tea seller to merchant of development aiming for the country's top job. Not everyone gets this far in a lifetime. His immediate destination is still distant but indefatigable Modi continues to soldier on with a missionary zeal. Till the other day he was just among a select band of chief ministers who have made their mark for good work in their states. But sudden developments in his party seem to have given him, to borrow Rahul Gandhi's phrase, "Jupiter's escape velocity" and positioned him in the higher orbit of national politics. 

         

          His advent on national stage, though, was met with stiff resistance and open hostility in his own party as many senior leaders in the party considered him a 'gate-crasher' and were not ready to play second fiddle to him. After weeks of bickering, bad-blood and back-room maneuverings, on 13 September 2013 he was finally handed over the baton and anointed as party's prime ministerial candidate for 2014 General elections, much to the relief of its well-wishers. To his credit, Modi has taken the new responsibility in right earnest and lost no time in galvanizing party workers and supporters. Starting his blitzkrieg from Haryana, in less than 6 weeks, he has addressed over a dozen huge public rallies, attended by lakhs of enthusiastic supporters at Rewari (September 15 - Ex-servicemen rally), Bhopal (September 25 - Karyakarta rally), Trichy (September 26 - BJP Youth rally), Delhi (September 29 - Vijay rally), Kanpur (Oct 19 - Vijay Sankhnad), Jhansi (October - 25), Udaipur (October 26 - Janjati  Sammelan), Patna (October 27 - Hunkar ) and other places. He is literally all over the place. 

          Modi is like manna from heaven for BJP which had been in a "Waiting for Godot" like situation since the retirement of affable, statesman -like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and after successive defeats in 2004 and 2009. Modi's critics see him as divisive, opportunistic, vindictive, authoritarian, anti-minority and what have you. To his legion of admirers, he is a paragon of virtues and right choice to lead the country. Still to many others he is an efficient, development-oriented, incorruptible and strong leader. Whether you love or hate him, he draws your attention. He may not be comfortable in English, occasionally falters on facts, dresses rather too well and indulges in self-promotion but even his detractors concede his high- octane oratorical skills. He creates instant bonding with the audience and can keep them spellbound till the cows come home. No wonder within a short period of just two months nearly 5 million people are reported to have attended his massive rallies in a diverse country like ours. It is astonishing a veritable crowd-puller like him has few friends and is known to be a loner.

          His adversaries may not praise his model of development in Gujarat but how do you dispute its highest economic growth rate, low crime graph, excellent roads, 24 hours electricity to domestic feeders under widely-acclaimed Jyotigram Yojna. On these parameters, the record of states like UP and Bihar is extremely poor. If Gujarat was unsafe for minorities why thousands of unemployed including Muslims from these 2 states would go there to earn their livelihood. People can no longer be deceived by empty slogans of casteist, communalist ,family- fixated and self-serving  politicians. An average voter in this country wants job, low food prices, good infra-structure and security to his life and all these day-to-day necessities are, directly or indirectly, affected by corruption, the most efficient industry in this country run by a cartel of corrupt bureaucrats, crony capitalists, greedy politicians and criminals. 
    Unlike secularism which is a state of mind, corruption like poverty is a state of matter. It is seen, felt, heard and smelled by millions in this country in one form or the other everyday. Corruption was always there but in the last 4 years it has crossed all the limits and has acquired the form of a powerful Djinn which will hover around till the next election. Meanwhile, Modi's juggernaut rolls on.

          The cumulative efforts of apex court's activism, RTI, investigative journalism, brave whistle-blowers, sincere NGOs and vociferous activists has ignited public mind like never before and Congress is in deep trouble. If Rahul Gandhi had woken up after UP's debacle in  March 2012 (http://rksingh167.blogspot.in/2012/03/mission-2014-rahul-bhai-lage-raho.html), restructured his party, got popular bills like Lok Pal, Women reservation passed and taken effective measures to curb corruption his party would not have been in dire straits today. He had 20 months to fix things. At this late hour only a bumper crop, low inflation, speedy implementation of cash transfer, food security, and other welfare schemes and  favourable electoral tie-ups in UP, Bihar , TN and AP (accounting for 202 seats) may resuscitate his party's fortunes, though, Icons like Sachin Tendulkar may not help much.

          Coming back to Modi, his exertions so far is like a movie's trailer. The real show will start after December 8, 2013 when the results of assembly elections to 5 states would be out. Demographic changes in last 5 years have resulted in 378.6 million voters in the age-group of 18 - 35 years, 149 million first-time voters, over 380 million urban population and around 80 million active users of social media sites. A tech-savvy person like Modi will make optimum use of these factors to his advantage in the personality-based 2014 parliamentary elections. Modi's popularity among country's youth, full of hope and enthusiasm, is amazing, more so, as his main adversary is nearly 20 years younger to him. He would entice this young constituency with a seductive package of strong India --devoid of corruption, bustling with development and full of opportunities for them. This will be an offer very few would refuse in these tough times. It would be dicey,at the present moment, to predict the outcome of next elections but with Modi Effect a rejuvenated BJP can dream of 180 seats. A clean sweep in MP, Rajasthan, Delhi and Chhattisgarh may generate a Modi Lehar and fetch the party even 200 seats. Not Impossible.

Ides of September : Month of judgements

Ides of September: Month of Judgements

Be you ever so high,

The law is above you.

                September 2013 will go down in the modern Indian history as a memorable month for two pronouncements by the Supreme Court of India and their possible catalytic effect in giving new dimension to the country's politics. It is safe to assume that these judgements will have a far-reaching impact on shaping the destinies of many politicians and political parties in this country. This month also saw emergence of a new political star in Narendra Modi and yet another cameo from endearing and ever-confused Rahul Gandhi. This is how the month unfolded:

Sept 4 - Supreme Court of India rejects Central Govt's review petition of its historic judgement of July 10, 2013, which stated that "convicted MPs/MLAs/MLCs would stand disqualified immediately if convicted by court for crimes with punishment of 2 years or more."

Sep 24 - Central cabinet approves an Ordinance to negate this judgement and sends it to the President of India for his assent.

Sept 27 - Rahul Gandhi Congress Vice President states that in his personal opinion, the ordinance is 'complete nonsense' and 'it should be torn up and thrown away'.

Sept 27 - Supreme Court in a landmark judgement allowed voters to cast negative votes observing "when a large number of voters will press NOTA (None of the above) button, it will force political parties to choose better candidates. Negative voting will lead to systemic change in polls."     

Sept 11 to 30 - BJP's PM's candidate Narendra Modi addresses huge political rallies in Haryana, AP, MP, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Tamilnadu, Delhi and Mumbai.

Sept 30 - Lalu Yadav, former Railway Minister convicted in 17 years old Fodder scam and sent to jail.

                All the above events had different backdrops,albeit, similar contours but likely to converge on same path leading, one hopes, to the highway of a clean polity in India. There is no doubt that these judgements will have substantial prophylactic effect on the country's ailing democracy. The apex court has proved it  once again why they are perceived by common man as last resort. One could not have asked for more in these depressing times. The message from the court is unambiguous. Keep the criminals out of politics and ban their entry into the temples of democracy( Parliament and State Assemblies).

                Of course, the bell tolls for the political class and they should wake up. It is time for politicians, particularly those who have relatively unsullied and untainted image and still many years left in their chosen vocation, to rise to the occasion and take the call to provide a strong body to the spirit of judgements. They will be doing a great service to themselves and to their tribe in the bargain. Remember what politics used to be in the 50's and 60's when the leaders would mix freely with the crowd, honesty was still a cherished word and driving force behind their profession was the basic spirit of social service.All that has vanished in the deep sea of regret and anguish. It would be difficult to bring back those halcyon days but at least sincere efforts can be made by the present crop of politicians to regain people's trust and goodwill. Then you would not require an army of commandos or goons to protect you from the same people whom you want to reach. There will be no need to hire a crowd. Expenses on elections can be scaled down drastically. No pivotal role for black money as elections could be financed in a transparent manner.

                All this appears like a dream but still possible and doable by honest and visionary political leaders in this country. As Walt Disney said "If you can dream it, you can do it". Supreme Court has already gifted the nation, not one but two historic judgements. Now it is over to you folks,the practitioners of World's  second oldest profession to use these judgements to protect  our beautiful and vulnerable democracy which has been under constant attacks by a bunch of criminal ,corrupt, casteist and communal politicians.Just remove the veil of hypocrisy and see the sun of reality. Go for candidates with a clean image in the forthcoming parliamentary elections. While winnability factor cannot be ignored, the education, integrity and reputation as a sincere social worker should carry maximum weightage.For starters,at least major political parties can take a lead in this direction. That will be our real tryst with democracy.

P.S.: Rasheed Masood, Congress MP from Rajya Sabha and known for getting a meal for Rs 5 has been jailed for 4 years in a scam. He is likely to beat Lalu Yadav to become first convicted leader to lose his Parliament seat. All this has been made possible by the recent historic judgement of Supreme Court. It could not be more ironic when we celebrate today birthdays of  Mahatma Gandhi and Lal Bahadur Shastri, two great leaders from the same party. May their souls rest in peace.

Indian Tiger, Chinese Tiger - Same Difference

Indian Tiger, Chinese Tiger - Same Difference

"One mountain cannot accommodate two tigers".

                                                                   Chinese saying

"A strong neighbour is a natural enemy".

                                                                   Indian saying   

           The three-week border stand-off between India and China, occasioned by Chinese incursions in Depsang Bulge in eastern Ladakh in April 2013 did not reach flashpoint but may have caused some damage to their already fragile relations. Whether it was accidental or deliberately staged, it took a flurry of backroom diplomatic activity mostly on the Indian side to mend fences and improve the atmospherics. Such flare-ups would recur but should be prevented.            

          Rivalries between India and China, some inherited, some acquired, have been subject of animated discussions and interesting debates in the incestuous circles  of  academicians, diplomats, defence experts and strategic analysts for eons. Both are large countries grappling with myriad complex domestic and external problems. In the bilateral sphere, their relations are mutually suspicious and often tense. With the exception of border dispute which is a gift of history and may shape their geography, other issues bedeviling their relations are propelled by their rapid economic and military growth, ambitions and prejudices. Both countries have huge population - China with 1.35 billion people is world's most populous and India at 1.24 billion close behind. Their GDP on PPP basis makes China ($ 11.44 trillion) second and India ($ 4.515 trillion) third largest economy in the world.  They have their roots in ancient civilizations going back to several thousand years.  There are contrasts too.   India is a pluralistic functioning democracy. A constitutional republic with a multi-party parliamentary system, active judiciary and vibrant media. On the other hand, China is a single party communist state controlled by NPC (National People's Congress) whose representatives are elected through indirect elections. NPC retains its monopoly on power and maintains strict control over the people. An authoritarian state which does better business than many capitalist countries. While democracy in India works as a pressure valve to cope with social discontent, an autocratic regime has helped China's meteoric rise on the world stage.

  However, both countries are plagued by similar socio-economic problems. Have a glance:

    Corruption: According to the Transparency International report (2012), China ranks 80th and India 94th out of 174 countries on the corruption perception index. It is generally agreed that China's economic reforms post-1992 opened up more opportunities for corruption which their leaders are finding difficult to contain No wonder China's former President Hu Jintao in an official statement in Nov 2012 concluded that "Fighting corruption and implementing political reforms is the most challenging problem. A failure to deal with corruption could bring down China's ruling communist party and the state it controls".  These sentiments find their echo in the statement of President Xi Jinping who said in Jan 2013 "We must have the resolution to fight every corrupt phenomenon, punish every corrupt official and constantly eradicate the soil which breeds corruption". He also called for cracking down on both tigers (high level officials) and flies (low level officials). Brave words but will there be perceptible change on the ground because Chinese government is very good in the beginning when they investigate someone, but then the cases would disappear in the system.   

    The dismal record of investigating agencies in India is even worse. One corruption scam unfolds after another at regular intervals in this country led, ironically, by an honest economist who had laid the foundations of India's economic reforms in 1992 as Finance minister. Read any newspaper, watch any TV channel corruption is prime news (some mega corruption cases include CWG, 2G Spectrum and Coalgate). The reputation of its premier investigating agency probing high-profile corruption cases in India suffered badly after the apex court in India called it "a caged parrot speaking in its master's (Govt of India) voice".  Over the years rampant and brazen corruption in India and China has seeped into every aspects of public life.

 

Environmental degradation: Great economic achievements have taken a heavy toll of its environment causing serious pollution of China's air, soil and water. Atmospheric conditions in China are among the worst in the world; in terms of both scale and concentration. China has the dubious distinction of being world's worst polluter and biggest emitter of the greenhouse gases. Desertification, soil erosion, salinization and loss of high-quality cultivated land to urban development have reduced the quality of land resources affecting 25% of the land area. Environmental degradation has reached alarming levels with 30% of its main rivers and 40% of tested groundwater found to be severely polluted. Nearly 500 million people lack access to safe drinking water. 

India's record is equally bleak with massive degradation of forest and agricultural land, loss of bio-diversity and resource depletion (fresh water, minerals, forest, sand, rocks etc). It  is already 5th biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and  according to a World Bank study the annual cost of  environmental degradation in India is over US$ 62 billion equivalent to 5.7% of the country's GDP. A recent data analysis by Centre of Science and Environment (CSE) states that air pollution is the 5th leading cause of death in India, with 141 out of 180 cities monitored for studies exceeding the pollution norms.

Gap between rich and poor: The robust economic growth of China during last 20 years has never been achieved by any country in the history but this impressive growth has been unbalanced as witnessed between the rich cities and impoverished countryside. China has nearly 1.1 million millionaires and 122 billionaires (India has 55 billionaires and 190000 millionaires) and has the fastest growing populations of millionaires. Between them they also host about 500 million poor people. This growing social disparity, if not reduced, will threaten their economic stability in coming years.

Social tensions:   China is facing strong undercurrents of social strains in the rural areas caused by the rampant tendency of local officials to grab land of farmers, not to mention the continuing unrest brewing for decades in Tibet and Xinjiang. These are sources of great worries to the Chinese leadership. India has its own share of serious internal disturbances in the form of violent activities unleashed by Maoists/Naxalites in 85 districts of 8 states, radical religious groups, insurgents in North east and Kashmir and cross-border terrorists.

         Inflation, unemployment and  health related problems caused by adulterated food-stuff, counterfeit drugs, contaminated water and polluted air, have added to the misery and wretched existence  of over 1 billion poor, lower-middle class , farmers and lowly-paid workers living in India and China . The bottom-line is that their economic success may have elevated them to the high table dominated by developed countries, yet both are still developing countries occupying very low ranks on Human Development Index (China at 101 and India at 136 out of 186 countries).   

             Two different countries, different people, different system of governments yet confronting similar problems. Same difference.

         How China and India manage their relationship may determine Asia's future. If they decide to live in harmony it will have a positive impact on nearly 37% of mankind. The unresolved border tangle is the main stumbling block in the improvement of their ties. Despite two agreements "Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the LAC (1993)" and "Confidence Building measures in the military field (1996)", the border remains tense. But Chinese are not in a hurry to settle this vexatious issue. They may continue to play cat and mouse game with India, at  least for a while, if not indefinitely. No wonder that even after 16 rounds of border talks there has been no breakthrough. There are a host of other problems relating to trade deficit, proposed dams on trans-border rivers, stapled visa etc. Chinese strategy of encircling India with a "string of pearls", and India's "arc of friendship" with South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar exacerbate the situation on both sides. China is unnerved by India's move, in furtherance to its 'Look East' policy, to enhance security and commercial engagements with Japan, and through an editorial (May 2013) in People's Daily (mouthpiece of ruling Chinese Communist party) has warned India to "be wary of petty Japanese burglars". India's belated efforts to upgrade its military and infra-structure capabilities along the 4057 km LAC (Line of Actual Control) is also disconcerting to China. Although China would not like India becoming tool of US and other countries to contain her but relishes a "Higher than Himalayas, deeper than the deepest sea  and sweeter than honey" all-weather friendship with India's unfriendly neighbour Pakistan. 

Because of their size the two Asian giants cannot over-power each other and full-scale conventional war between them is impossibility. So why not go for peace. Having been at the receiving end since 1962, India is the aggrieved party. China with three times higher GDP and military expenditure than India should be more understanding of India's concerns. Chinese have been promoting their language and culture by setting up Confucius Institute in several countries since 2004. They should remember what Confucius said "Do not impose on others what you yourself do not desire".      
          

In recent years their leaders have been reiterating that "there is enough space in the world for the development of both India and China". So charm offensive may not be missing on either side, but we need statesmen on both sides of the Himalayas who are capable to see the big picture and take bold decisions to resolve the disputed claims giving both countries more time and resources to tackle their pressing domestic problems.  Till then, President Xi Jinping's promise of "Chinese dream" to his people or India's benign aspiration of becoming a superpower by 2020 will remain in the realm of fantasy.