Democracy's Grand Carnival: Indian Elections 2014

The largest parliamentary election in human history for which  814 million people, larger than Europe's population, including 23 million in the age group of 18-19 years are eligible to vote will come to an end next week. This mammoth exercise spread over 9 phases from 7 April to 12 May to elect 543 members for the 16th Lok Sabha is being supervised by India's Election Commission with the help of nearly 10 million civilian and security personnel, 1.4 million EVM (Electronic Voting Machines) at the 930,000 polling stations across the country.

        Though a record number of 1674 political parties including 6 national and 47 regional are in the race, the main electoral battle is between two formations NDA and UPA led by BJP and Congress respectively. As of now the Narendra Modi-led BJP, the main component of NDA seems to be far ahead of other parties in this electoral battle. If various opinion polls are to be believed, he is the star performer for the party getting support from a wide section of society except the minorities. Minorities rarely vote for BJP but projection of Modi as their Prime Ministerial candidate has been like throwing the cat among the pigeons to the largest minority in this country. Muslim clerics and Christian evangelists who have no love lost for Modi appear to have exhorted their followers to vote more resolutely against BJP in this election. Muslims have significant number of votes (ranging from 11% to over 35%) in over 218 parliamentary constituencies and it is generally assumed that since 1990's they have preferred "tactical voting" going for the best possible candidates from the so-called secular parties who could defeat the BJP candidates. In a similar vein, those rooting for Modi have made concerted efforts to consolidate anti-corruption and pro-development votes particularly among country's youth, upper castes, non-yadav OBCs and urban middle class in BJP's favour. Heavy polling in crucial states can be attributed to both the polarization factor and enthusiastic first-time voters.

        There has been palpable difference between the campaigning styles of main parties. The high-pitched election campaign spearheaded by Modi seems to have swamped his opponents. He has come a long way since the days of his slip-ups on history in Oct/Nov 2013 looking more confident, more relaxed. A dedicated and well-knit team of technocrats, researchers and stage managers, many of them from his home state have worked diligently to create "Brand Modi". His brilliantly choreographed speeches and interviews with friendly TV channels portray him as someone who, though, of humble origin yet risen so high on the sheer strength of his vision, incorruptibility and good governance. In the process he has acquired a pan-India image becoming first among the equals in his own party and captured the eyes of millions who think he can eradicate corruption, revive economy and fast-track development projects. His promise to create millions of jobs appears enticing to unemployed youth. Since becoming BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate in Sept 2013 tireless Modi has crisscrossed 25 states in the country, addressed 437 public meetings, 1350 innovative 3-D rallies/road shows and over 4000 ingenious chai pe charcha with Namo campaign, collecting groundswell of support for himself. A phenomenal accomplishment! His larger-than-life projection on a grand scale has certainly boosted the electoral prospects of NDA's rainbow coalition of 29  parties.

        A weak and uncharismatic leadership made things difficult for the ruling party haunted by economy's blue devils and djinn of corruption. Its supporters were disheartened when many sitting members declined to fight election and chose the safe route of Rajya Sabha. Inability to stitch fruitful alliances in UP, AP and Tamil Nadu increased its isolation. Priyanka's late entry in the election fray to protect the family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli showed desperation. But the biggest mistake was to engage Modi in a hand to hand fight by launching personal attacks on him. 

        This election will be remembered not only for the innovative use of digital technology on a high scale and money's overpowering role but also for the brazen abuse of 'freedom of speech'. Rabble-rousers cutting across the party lines disgraced themselves by bringing down the political discourse to an unprecedented low level. There was plenty of vitriol in their shallow speeches but very little room for a gentle barb, sharp wit, light humour or even plain decency - so essential for healthy political debates in a parliamentary democracy. Mud-slinging, character assassination, name-calling and all possible weapons of dirty politics were used to blacken one's opponent and whole country watched in utter disbelief. The ugly face of politicians and their controversial theatrics displayed on visual media lifted their TRP ratings and increased viewers disgust. There were very few politicians who didn't indulge in the game of muckraking. According to famous Greek dramatist Aristophanes (446 BC - 386 BC) the characteristics of a popular politician include "a horrible voice, bad breeding and a vulgar manner". A majority of campaigners did even better.

        Coming back to the elections, whatever may be the final tally on May 16, Modi-mania generated on the promising slogan of development and corruption-free governance will prevail over Modi-phobia created by the votaries of secularism. Congress would be lucky to score a century of seats while their main rival BJP would be well-placed to score a double century enough to ensure Modi a place in the sun. Among the other stakeholders, TMC,  AIDMK, TDP, TRS and BJD will improve on their 2009 performance while SP, JD(U), NCP and DMK  will  shrink. The new entrant AAP should get good votes for their gutsy style of campaigning but very few seats. By all reckoning, NDA will form the next government even if they fall short of the magic figure of 272 as more parties would love to jump on their bandwagon.

http://rksingh167.blogspot.in/2013/11/destination-delhi-2014.html

AAP's Music: Symphony of Hope or Cacophony of Despair

        AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) led by tenacious Arvind Kejriwal arrived on Indian political horizon with a bang on Dec 8, 2013 winning 28 out of 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly elections finishing behind BJP who got 32 seats. The vanquished party (Congress) in a tactical move, not liked by many Congressmen offered them unconditional support and Arvind Kejriwal became 7th Chief Minister of Delhi embarking on his maiden legislative journey amid great excitement of his supporters and grave concern of detractors.

        Getting to the chair was the easy part, it seems now, as problems started cropping up in quick succession mostly owing to their callowness, over-confidence and on few occasions  sheer insolence. The antics of Kejriwal and some of his ministerial colleagues suddenly elevated to power and drunk on the heady cocktail of ambition, arrogance and inexperience created a near mayhem in Delhi for two weeks of their rule and the media had a busy time. Bizarre incidents of travel by metro for oath ceremony, Janata darbar fiasco, controversy on Kejriwal's accommodation and security, vigilante-style functioning of his ministers, sitting on dharna by Chief Minister took the shine off from its stunning electoral debut. Reports in media of fake members joining the party and expulsion of a MLA who was denied ministerial berth further tarnished the fledgling party's image and may dissuade potential members.

        Leaving behind those nightmarish episodes, Kejriwal should focus on administration so that he can showcase his achievements of first 100 days in power- the usual honeymoon period allowed to a new government. As he does not have a magic lamp, he should set a modest target and focus on those items from his extensive laundry list which are less complicated and can be done within a short period. Apart from water, power and public transport, issues affecting the lives of common man like Govt hospitals/schools, roads, women's security, rain water harvesting should be on his menu. Rather than tinkering with the existing system, he could open up the system itself and show its functioning to the public using modern IT tools, something like an open kitchen. But he should refrain from conducting official business in maidans and stadiums instead of  Assembly and  Secretariat. Resorting to acts of symbolism, populism and gimmickry will not fetch his party extra votes and he may become all hat and no cattle. Unguarded comments (on Kashmir and Maoists), sweeping remarks (on corrupt politicians), indiscriminate announcements (on Khap panchayat) will spread confusion and bitterness. He will be lost in the warren of narrow vision if he tried his hands at too many things. Kejriwal would do well to remember the golden saying, "One thing at a time and that done well, is a very good rule as many can tell".

        A word about the man of the moment - Kejriwal started his career in 1989 with Tata Steel after finishing IIT, joined IRS in 1995, founded an NGO Parivartan in 1999 while still in Income Tax Department which he left in 2006, was associated with RTI, Jan Lok Pal movements, participated in Anna Hazare Movement in 2011 and parted ways to form Aam Aadmi Party in Nov 2012. He is young, courageous, street smart and media savvy but the way he fell out with his mentors like Aruna Roy and Anna Hazare and former comrades like Kiran Bedi betrays his individualistic streak.

        Kejriwal is not an 'Anarchist' and after becoming CM, he is no longer an 'Activist'. He should also not dream of bringing a political revolution in India because he lacks the vision, stature and charisma of intellectual giants from Trotsky (Permanent revolution - 1905) to JP (Total Revolution - 1974) who exhorted the masses to bring a revolutionary change in people's life but failed to bring the new dawn. Even movements like Arab Spring (2010) and Anna Hazare (2011) which engendered mass protests and generated great hope could not succeed in improving the living conditions of common man. As a full-fledged politician his priority should be to provide a clean government, devoid of functional anarchy, in Delhi. It would not be easy as both his unwilling accomplice (Congress) and those who missed the chair by a whisker (BJP) will make things difficult for him.

        To replicate the Delhi experiment in other parts of India, he would require a cadre-based party which may take years to build but that is the right way to go. A proper screening would eliminate fake members and prevent those trying to leap on its bandwagon. Past experience has shown that political leaders and parties take time to grow and mature. Today's strong regional parties like SP, BSP, AIDMK, TMC, TDP, BJD and their leaders have been in existence for decades. Drawn into the vortex of real politics, always a treacherous terrain, Kejriwal will need patience and nerve to play a long innings as in a 5-day test match rather than its shorter version of T-20. If AAP can win even a dozen seats in 2014 elections and about 5% popular votes on its own, people will forget its cacophonous beginning and hope for an amazing symphony in 2019. Failure to do so will merit soul-searching and taking AAP back to basics or disband it altogether and rejoin the biradari of activists. 

Also see: The Kejriwal phenomenon

DESTINATION DELHI: 2014

The Sun goes down, the Stars come out

And all that counts is here and now

My Universe will never be the same

I'm glad you came.

          Narendra Modi is the new rising star on India's political firmament. From a humble tea seller to merchant of development aiming for the country's top job. Not everyone gets this far in a lifetime. His immediate destination is still distant but indefatigable Modi continues to soldier on with a missionary zeal. Till the other day he was just among a select band of chief ministers who have made their mark for good work in their states. But sudden developments in his party seem to have given him, to borrow Rahul Gandhi's phrase, "Jupiter's escape velocity" and positioned him in the higher orbit of national politics. 

         

          His advent on national stage, though, was met with stiff resistance and open hostility in his own party as many senior leaders in the party considered him a 'gate-crasher' and were not ready to play second fiddle to him. After weeks of bickering, bad-blood and back-room maneuverings, on 13 September 2013 he was finally handed over the baton and anointed as party's prime ministerial candidate for 2014 General elections, much to the relief of its well-wishers. To his credit, Modi has taken the new responsibility in right earnest and lost no time in galvanizing party workers and supporters. Starting his blitzkrieg from Haryana, in less than 6 weeks, he has addressed over a dozen huge public rallies, attended by lakhs of enthusiastic supporters at Rewari (September 15 - Ex-servicemen rally), Bhopal (September 25 - Karyakarta rally), Trichy (September 26 - BJP Youth rally), Delhi (September 29 - Vijay rally), Kanpur (Oct 19 - Vijay Sankhnad), Jhansi (October - 25), Udaipur (October 26 - Janjati  Sammelan), Patna (October 27 - Hunkar ) and other places. He is literally all over the place. 

          Modi is like manna from heaven for BJP which had been in a "Waiting for Godot" like situation since the retirement of affable, statesman -like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and after successive defeats in 2004 and 2009. Modi's critics see him as divisive, opportunistic, vindictive, authoritarian, anti-minority and what have you. To his legion of admirers, he is a paragon of virtues and right choice to lead the country. Still to many others he is an efficient, development-oriented, incorruptible and strong leader. Whether you love or hate him, he draws your attention. He may not be comfortable in English, occasionally falters on facts, dresses rather too well and indulges in self-promotion but even his detractors concede his high- octane oratorical skills. He creates instant bonding with the audience and can keep them spellbound till the cows come home. No wonder within a short period of just two months nearly 5 million people are reported to have attended his massive rallies in a diverse country like ours. It is astonishing a veritable crowd-puller like him has few friends and is known to be a loner.

          His adversaries may not praise his model of development in Gujarat but how do you dispute its highest economic growth rate, low crime graph, excellent roads, 24 hours electricity to domestic feeders under widely-acclaimed Jyotigram Yojna. On these parameters, the record of states like UP and Bihar is extremely poor. If Gujarat was unsafe for minorities why thousands of unemployed including Muslims from these 2 states would go there to earn their livelihood. People can no longer be deceived by empty slogans of casteist, communalist ,family- fixated and self-serving  politicians. An average voter in this country wants job, low food prices, good infra-structure and security to his life and all these day-to-day necessities are, directly or indirectly, affected by corruption, the most efficient industry in this country run by a cartel of corrupt bureaucrats, crony capitalists, greedy politicians and criminals. 
    Unlike secularism which is a state of mind, corruption like poverty is a state of matter. It is seen, felt, heard and smelled by millions in this country in one form or the other everyday. Corruption was always there but in the last 4 years it has crossed all the limits and has acquired the form of a powerful Djinn which will hover around till the next election. Meanwhile, Modi's juggernaut rolls on.

          The cumulative efforts of apex court's activism, RTI, investigative journalism, brave whistle-blowers, sincere NGOs and vociferous activists has ignited public mind like never before and Congress is in deep trouble. If Rahul Gandhi had woken up after UP's debacle in  March 2012 (http://rksingh167.blogspot.in/2012/03/mission-2014-rahul-bhai-lage-raho.html), restructured his party, got popular bills like Lok Pal, Women reservation passed and taken effective measures to curb corruption his party would not have been in dire straits today. He had 20 months to fix things. At this late hour only a bumper crop, low inflation, speedy implementation of cash transfer, food security, and other welfare schemes and  favourable electoral tie-ups in UP, Bihar , TN and AP (accounting for 202 seats) may resuscitate his party's fortunes, though, Icons like Sachin Tendulkar may not help much.

          Coming back to Modi, his exertions so far is like a movie's trailer. The real show will start after December 8, 2013 when the results of assembly elections to 5 states would be out. Demographic changes in last 5 years have resulted in 378.6 million voters in the age-group of 18 - 35 years, 149 million first-time voters, over 380 million urban population and around 80 million active users of social media sites. A tech-savvy person like Modi will make optimum use of these factors to his advantage in the personality-based 2014 parliamentary elections. Modi's popularity among country's youth, full of hope and enthusiasm, is amazing, more so, as his main adversary is nearly 20 years younger to him. He would entice this young constituency with a seductive package of strong India --devoid of corruption, bustling with development and full of opportunities for them. This will be an offer very few would refuse in these tough times. It would be dicey,at the present moment, to predict the outcome of next elections but with Modi Effect a rejuvenated BJP can dream of 180 seats. A clean sweep in MP, Rajasthan, Delhi and Chhattisgarh may generate a Modi Lehar and fetch the party even 200 seats. Not Impossible.

Ides of September : Month of judgements

Ides of September: Month of Judgements

Be you ever so high,

The law is above you.

                September 2013 will go down in the modern Indian history as a memorable month for two pronouncements by the Supreme Court of India and their possible catalytic effect in giving new dimension to the country's politics. It is safe to assume that these judgements will have a far-reaching impact on shaping the destinies of many politicians and political parties in this country. This month also saw emergence of a new political star in Narendra Modi and yet another cameo from endearing and ever-confused Rahul Gandhi. This is how the month unfolded:

Sept 4 - Supreme Court of India rejects Central Govt's review petition of its historic judgement of July 10, 2013, which stated that "convicted MPs/MLAs/MLCs would stand disqualified immediately if convicted by court for crimes with punishment of 2 years or more."

Sep 24 - Central cabinet approves an Ordinance to negate this judgement and sends it to the President of India for his assent.

Sept 27 - Rahul Gandhi Congress Vice President states that in his personal opinion, the ordinance is 'complete nonsense' and 'it should be torn up and thrown away'.

Sept 27 - Supreme Court in a landmark judgement allowed voters to cast negative votes observing "when a large number of voters will press NOTA (None of the above) button, it will force political parties to choose better candidates. Negative voting will lead to systemic change in polls."     

Sept 11 to 30 - BJP's PM's candidate Narendra Modi addresses huge political rallies in Haryana, AP, MP, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Tamilnadu, Delhi and Mumbai.

Sept 30 - Lalu Yadav, former Railway Minister convicted in 17 years old Fodder scam and sent to jail.

                All the above events had different backdrops,albeit, similar contours but likely to converge on same path leading, one hopes, to the highway of a clean polity in India. There is no doubt that these judgements will have substantial prophylactic effect on the country's ailing democracy. The apex court has proved it  once again why they are perceived by common man as last resort. One could not have asked for more in these depressing times. The message from the court is unambiguous. Keep the criminals out of politics and ban their entry into the temples of democracy( Parliament and State Assemblies).

                Of course, the bell tolls for the political class and they should wake up. It is time for politicians, particularly those who have relatively unsullied and untainted image and still many years left in their chosen vocation, to rise to the occasion and take the call to provide a strong body to the spirit of judgements. They will be doing a great service to themselves and to their tribe in the bargain. Remember what politics used to be in the 50's and 60's when the leaders would mix freely with the crowd, honesty was still a cherished word and driving force behind their profession was the basic spirit of social service.All that has vanished in the deep sea of regret and anguish. It would be difficult to bring back those halcyon days but at least sincere efforts can be made by the present crop of politicians to regain people's trust and goodwill. Then you would not require an army of commandos or goons to protect you from the same people whom you want to reach. There will be no need to hire a crowd. Expenses on elections can be scaled down drastically. No pivotal role for black money as elections could be financed in a transparent manner.

                All this appears like a dream but still possible and doable by honest and visionary political leaders in this country. As Walt Disney said "If you can dream it, you can do it". Supreme Court has already gifted the nation, not one but two historic judgements. Now it is over to you folks,the practitioners of World's  second oldest profession to use these judgements to protect  our beautiful and vulnerable democracy which has been under constant attacks by a bunch of criminal ,corrupt, casteist and communal politicians.Just remove the veil of hypocrisy and see the sun of reality. Go for candidates with a clean image in the forthcoming parliamentary elections. While winnability factor cannot be ignored, the education, integrity and reputation as a sincere social worker should carry maximum weightage.For starters,at least major political parties can take a lead in this direction. That will be our real tryst with democracy.

P.S.: Rasheed Masood, Congress MP from Rajya Sabha and known for getting a meal for Rs 5 has been jailed for 4 years in a scam. He is likely to beat Lalu Yadav to become first convicted leader to lose his Parliament seat. All this has been made possible by the recent historic judgement of Supreme Court. It could not be more ironic when we celebrate today birthdays of  Mahatma Gandhi and Lal Bahadur Shastri, two great leaders from the same party. May their souls rest in peace.

Indian Tiger, Chinese Tiger - Same Difference

Indian Tiger, Chinese Tiger - Same Difference

"One mountain cannot accommodate two tigers".

                                                                   Chinese saying

"A strong neighbour is a natural enemy".

                                                                   Indian saying   

           The three-week border stand-off between India and China, occasioned by Chinese incursions in Depsang Bulge in eastern Ladakh in April 2013 did not reach flashpoint but may have caused some damage to their already fragile relations. Whether it was accidental or deliberately staged, it took a flurry of backroom diplomatic activity mostly on the Indian side to mend fences and improve the atmospherics. Such flare-ups would recur but should be prevented.            

          Rivalries between India and China, some inherited, some acquired, have been subject of animated discussions and interesting debates in the incestuous circles  of  academicians, diplomats, defence experts and strategic analysts for eons. Both are large countries grappling with myriad complex domestic and external problems. In the bilateral sphere, their relations are mutually suspicious and often tense. With the exception of border dispute which is a gift of history and may shape their geography, other issues bedeviling their relations are propelled by their rapid economic and military growth, ambitions and prejudices. Both countries have huge population - China with 1.35 billion people is world's most populous and India at 1.24 billion close behind. Their GDP on PPP basis makes China ($ 11.44 trillion) second and India ($ 4.515 trillion) third largest economy in the world.  They have their roots in ancient civilizations going back to several thousand years.  There are contrasts too.   India is a pluralistic functioning democracy. A constitutional republic with a multi-party parliamentary system, active judiciary and vibrant media. On the other hand, China is a single party communist state controlled by NPC (National People's Congress) whose representatives are elected through indirect elections. NPC retains its monopoly on power and maintains strict control over the people. An authoritarian state which does better business than many capitalist countries. While democracy in India works as a pressure valve to cope with social discontent, an autocratic regime has helped China's meteoric rise on the world stage.

  However, both countries are plagued by similar socio-economic problems. Have a glance:

    Corruption: According to the Transparency International report (2012), China ranks 80th and India 94th out of 174 countries on the corruption perception index. It is generally agreed that China's economic reforms post-1992 opened up more opportunities for corruption which their leaders are finding difficult to contain No wonder China's former President Hu Jintao in an official statement in Nov 2012 concluded that "Fighting corruption and implementing political reforms is the most challenging problem. A failure to deal with corruption could bring down China's ruling communist party and the state it controls".  These sentiments find their echo in the statement of President Xi Jinping who said in Jan 2013 "We must have the resolution to fight every corrupt phenomenon, punish every corrupt official and constantly eradicate the soil which breeds corruption". He also called for cracking down on both tigers (high level officials) and flies (low level officials). Brave words but will there be perceptible change on the ground because Chinese government is very good in the beginning when they investigate someone, but then the cases would disappear in the system.   

    The dismal record of investigating agencies in India is even worse. One corruption scam unfolds after another at regular intervals in this country led, ironically, by an honest economist who had laid the foundations of India's economic reforms in 1992 as Finance minister. Read any newspaper, watch any TV channel corruption is prime news (some mega corruption cases include CWG, 2G Spectrum and Coalgate). The reputation of its premier investigating agency probing high-profile corruption cases in India suffered badly after the apex court in India called it "a caged parrot speaking in its master's (Govt of India) voice".  Over the years rampant and brazen corruption in India and China has seeped into every aspects of public life.

 

Environmental degradation: Great economic achievements have taken a heavy toll of its environment causing serious pollution of China's air, soil and water. Atmospheric conditions in China are among the worst in the world; in terms of both scale and concentration. China has the dubious distinction of being world's worst polluter and biggest emitter of the greenhouse gases. Desertification, soil erosion, salinization and loss of high-quality cultivated land to urban development have reduced the quality of land resources affecting 25% of the land area. Environmental degradation has reached alarming levels with 30% of its main rivers and 40% of tested groundwater found to be severely polluted. Nearly 500 million people lack access to safe drinking water. 

India's record is equally bleak with massive degradation of forest and agricultural land, loss of bio-diversity and resource depletion (fresh water, minerals, forest, sand, rocks etc). It  is already 5th biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and  according to a World Bank study the annual cost of  environmental degradation in India is over US$ 62 billion equivalent to 5.7% of the country's GDP. A recent data analysis by Centre of Science and Environment (CSE) states that air pollution is the 5th leading cause of death in India, with 141 out of 180 cities monitored for studies exceeding the pollution norms.

Gap between rich and poor: The robust economic growth of China during last 20 years has never been achieved by any country in the history but this impressive growth has been unbalanced as witnessed between the rich cities and impoverished countryside. China has nearly 1.1 million millionaires and 122 billionaires (India has 55 billionaires and 190000 millionaires) and has the fastest growing populations of millionaires. Between them they also host about 500 million poor people. This growing social disparity, if not reduced, will threaten their economic stability in coming years.

Social tensions:   China is facing strong undercurrents of social strains in the rural areas caused by the rampant tendency of local officials to grab land of farmers, not to mention the continuing unrest brewing for decades in Tibet and Xinjiang. These are sources of great worries to the Chinese leadership. India has its own share of serious internal disturbances in the form of violent activities unleashed by Maoists/Naxalites in 85 districts of 8 states, radical religious groups, insurgents in North east and Kashmir and cross-border terrorists.

         Inflation, unemployment and  health related problems caused by adulterated food-stuff, counterfeit drugs, contaminated water and polluted air, have added to the misery and wretched existence  of over 1 billion poor, lower-middle class , farmers and lowly-paid workers living in India and China . The bottom-line is that their economic success may have elevated them to the high table dominated by developed countries, yet both are still developing countries occupying very low ranks on Human Development Index (China at 101 and India at 136 out of 186 countries).   

             Two different countries, different people, different system of governments yet confronting similar problems. Same difference.

         How China and India manage their relationship may determine Asia's future. If they decide to live in harmony it will have a positive impact on nearly 37% of mankind. The unresolved border tangle is the main stumbling block in the improvement of their ties. Despite two agreements "Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the LAC (1993)" and "Confidence Building measures in the military field (1996)", the border remains tense. But Chinese are not in a hurry to settle this vexatious issue. They may continue to play cat and mouse game with India, at  least for a while, if not indefinitely. No wonder that even after 16 rounds of border talks there has been no breakthrough. There are a host of other problems relating to trade deficit, proposed dams on trans-border rivers, stapled visa etc. Chinese strategy of encircling India with a "string of pearls", and India's "arc of friendship" with South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar exacerbate the situation on both sides. China is unnerved by India's move, in furtherance to its 'Look East' policy, to enhance security and commercial engagements with Japan, and through an editorial (May 2013) in People's Daily (mouthpiece of ruling Chinese Communist party) has warned India to "be wary of petty Japanese burglars". India's belated efforts to upgrade its military and infra-structure capabilities along the 4057 km LAC (Line of Actual Control) is also disconcerting to China. Although China would not like India becoming tool of US and other countries to contain her but relishes a "Higher than Himalayas, deeper than the deepest sea  and sweeter than honey" all-weather friendship with India's unfriendly neighbour Pakistan. 

Because of their size the two Asian giants cannot over-power each other and full-scale conventional war between them is impossibility. So why not go for peace. Having been at the receiving end since 1962, India is the aggrieved party. China with three times higher GDP and military expenditure than India should be more understanding of India's concerns. Chinese have been promoting their language and culture by setting up Confucius Institute in several countries since 2004. They should remember what Confucius said "Do not impose on others what you yourself do not desire".      
          

In recent years their leaders have been reiterating that "there is enough space in the world for the development of both India and China". So charm offensive may not be missing on either side, but we need statesmen on both sides of the Himalayas who are capable to see the big picture and take bold decisions to resolve the disputed claims giving both countries more time and resources to tackle their pressing domestic problems.  Till then, President Xi Jinping's promise of "Chinese dream" to his people or India's benign aspiration of becoming a superpower by 2020 will remain in the realm of fantasy.

Corruption - Road to Perdition

              Like a short spell of light rains in the hot summer months, victory in Karnataka assembly elections will provide much-needed relief to Congress party. But this will be a temporary relief. Things will heat up soon. To be sure, it is not a spectacular victory for Congress, rather an expected drubbing for BJP. The electorates have taught the latter a deserving lesson. The message from Karnataka is loud and clear. Corruption is now the most serious offence in the eyes of electorate, punishable with denial of votes to the perpetrators. Poor governance and lack of development also rank very high on the voters negative list. A leader is a dealer in hope but in India we have to be content with wheeler dealers.

              Hope the two major national parties dreaming to form the next government at the center have got the message right. First BJP, the main opposition party in the parliament. They would do well to remember the famous words attributed to French diplomat Talleyrand about the restored Bourbon dynasty after the abdication of Napoleon "they had learnt nothing and forgotten nothing". Apparently, BJP have learnt nothing after debacles in Jharkhand, Uttarakhand and Himachal to name a few. Perhaps, they would become wiser after their thrashing in Karnataka. A party which till the other day took pride in calling itself a party with a difference is a totally different party now. They may be less corrupt, more democratic and development-oriented but are bereft of new ideas. They do not seem to have added new voters and will continue to face drought of sizeable minority votes. In short, a pedestrian party surviving only because their main opponent is sinking in the quagmire of sleaze and sloth. It has some competent and honest leaders but the party as a whole does not inspire confidence. Only a Lehar (wave) can take them near the 180 mark. And they may well be tempted to play the Narendra Modi card to generate this wave. Will that work? 

              The situation of Congress is worse. They have simply lost the confidence of the man on the streets. The life of an ordinary man has become insecure as never before but this supine government is unable to do much. However, when it comes to the lives of VIPs, nothing is left to chance. In fact, the union Home Minister has created an unprecedented record by providing the highest security cover (Z plus category) to the country's top corporate leader who lives in the most expensive house in the world. Being the wealthiest Indian he could have easily paid for the best available personal security system in the world. By the way, he is the same gentleman who is reported to have boasted that "Congress toh ab apni dukaan hai" (courtesy Nira Radia tapes). Coming on the hot topic of corruption, as if their big-ticket scams like CWG, 2G and Coalgate were not enough, Congress-led UPA-II government have also dirtied their hands with smaller ventures like Adarsh gate, Chopper gate and now Rail gate. But for the courageous and exemplary intervention of judiciary, laudable work of CAG and alacrity of a vigilant media, the country would not have been able to watch the corruption item numbers in 3D. People are so aghast and distressed at this sordid state of affairs that they are waiting for elections to fix the fixers. We know from the tales of "Arabian nights", that only a greedy and reckless Cassim gets caught while the smart Ali Baba manages to escape. Both brothers have their clones in the murky world of Indian politics.

              Political power is like poison, confessed Congress main hope Rahul Gandhi in an emotional speech a few months back. Looking at the kind of life enjoyed by the beneficiaries of this system, he should have said that power is like nectar. Once you have it you don't need anything and if you don't have it, it does not matter what else you have. Contrast the lifestyle of these lotus-eaters living in a land of milk and honey with the pathetic conditions of millions who gave them this power. Do we need to say anything more? In 2009, when he commenced his second innings no one would have imagined that an honest, hard-working and humble person like Dr. Manmohan Singh would come to be associated with corruption and his opponents would dare to point fingers straight at him. A tragic paradox but incredibly true! It remains a mystery as to why he has not quit so far. Loyalty to the leader who gave him the job or lure for the chair or both? One day we may know. Decent man that he is he should not have descended so low. We can only hope that history will be kind to him. Here one is reminded of the lamentations of Thomas Wolsey, Chief Adviser to King Henry VIII in the 15th Century England, "If I had served my God as I did my King, He would not have given me over in my grey hairs ".

              Make no mistake. Corruption, as things stand today, will be the single most deciding factor in the forthcoming elections to the State assemblies and Parliament. For the political class which loves to perpetuate this unholy and unfair dispensation, it is time to reflect on the sane advice of famous Swiss psychotherapist Carl Jung, "The man who promises everything is sure to fulfill nothing, and everyone who promises too much is in danger of using evil means in order to carry out his promises, and is already on the road to perdition".

Nirbhaya- the girl who stirred our soul.

           World did not end on 21 /12/2012 as prophesied in the Mayan Eschatological myth ( maybe it would on  21-12-2112). But barely one week after this ominous day, the world of millions in India came to a sad end with the demise  of a brave 23 year old girl ( officially unnamed  so far ). Her low-key, unsung and  surreptitious cremation distressing as it was,  has also  demonstrated  the cowardice  of the rulers.  The palpitation of their heart was clearly heard by the people across the country.  Peaceful , candle-lights protest drove the political class into stupor for 13 days. Awakening of the lambs seemed  to have alarmed the wolves, So much so that the leading lights of all major political parties were  conspicuous by their  silence in the wake of  this tragedy. They were also, tactfully, absent from the scene. Those who ventured  were soundly rebuffed by the irate crowd and had to beat a hasty retreat. Smart ones like Kejriwal ,sensing the fiery mood at the gathering, left their political caps behind  to join the marchers. The worst-hit were incorrigible publicity hounds  known for their inane quotes for every occasion and on any subject under the sun.They had  vanished into thin air.  


                                          

            This veritable triumph of the unarmed  non-political class over the highly protected political elite should be disturbing to the latter. The sudden eruption over the Nirbhaya issue, led mostly by the youth, was somewhat a culmination of the pent-up anger of the apolitical  class against the well-entrenched politicians over their  apathetic inaction to find solutions to their day-to day problems flagged  by  the civil movements led by Anna Hazare and other activists since 2011. In coming months such agitations will be frequent.Come election time this year  or  next , those  presently reclining  in their  ivory towers  will have to  face the people at the gate. So please wake up, read the writings on the wall and go for mid course correction.

                    
          Nirbhaya is dead. But to enable  her soul  rest in peace,we have to take effective steps to empower the system responsible to bring her tormentors  to justice and  put in place a dispensation which will ensure that acts of failure on the part of guardians of law does not get unpunished. Some of these steps could be :

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Law and  Police :

• Setting up of Special fast track courts in major cities/towns of  the country.
• Amendment of the Indian Evidence Act and other relevant laws which are hindrance to a speedy trial process
• Keeping in view increasing number of heinous crimes like rape and murder being committed by the juveniles,it would be necessary to lower the age bar  from the existing 18 to 16 years.
• Setting up of modern forensic labs and optimal use of latest technology viz: GPS,CCTV, online database of petty criminals, verification of all drivers and supporting staff of public transport. Active patrolling by well-armed beat constables and PCR vans.
• Protection to members of public who come forward to help police/victims. Their identity should be withheld and no inconvenience caused to them.It will increase the number of good samaritans in our society.
• Cases to be supervised by DCP/JtCP - level officer
• Sex-related offences to be treated as non-bailable offence and police given  custody of such  offenders. No adjournment after the commencement of day to day trials.
• 90 days time-limit from filing of FIR to execution of punishment.

Quantum of punishment :

ü  5 years imprisonment for molestation. Denial of passport, driving licence and similar facilities including jobs by State/Central Govts.                  

ü  15 years imprisonment for rape for an offender below 16 years and 25 years for others.

ü  Life imprisonment, without parole, for rape and death of the victim.

ü  Death penalty for rape,death and acts of depravity or barbarity ( as in Nirbhaya's case)

Political:

·         No ticket  to sex-offenders for fighting elections right from the Panchayat/Ward level to the Parliament.

·         Sex-offenders already occupying political post be expelled.

            With the gradual erosion of human values in our society, break-up of the joint family, large scale migration of rural youth to towns/big cities for jobs, culture of  " Greed and Speed ", it is difficult to eradicate crime. But with the concerted efforts of  active judiciary, people-friendly police, sensitive politicians,vigilant media and alert common man, the crime graph can be brought down drastically in a year or two. All the stakeholders must come on board and share the grim responsibilities.      

                      

     
          It was time Govt revealed Nirbhaya's real name and instituted a national award for bravery to honour her memory.This will inspire many to become Nirbhaya (Fearless) in future. It should not be difficult considering the fact that in this country we already have 51 awards named after 3 members of a single political family. One more award will not harm anybody.