Taming the Djinn of Corruption

A spectacular win in 3 North-Eastern states specially Tripura, stunning loss of 2 seats in UP Lok Sabha by-elections, TDP's shocking exit from NDA, perplexing ‘No confidence’ motion in Lok Sabha and well-scripted win to snatch an extra seat in Rajya Sabha from UP. Things can't be more topsy-turvy for Modi Govt which would complete its normal tenure early next year.

                   

Modi stormed into power with a historic win and absolute majority in May, 2014. During election campaigns he placed emphasis, among other things, on 2 issues agitating the minds of millions of Indian viz Development and eradication of corruption. His cabinet's first decision to set up a SIT under a Supreme Court judge to unearth black money showed his bold approach to fight corruption. He also launched a slew of innovative social welfare and financial schemes for the benefit of poor, farmers, women and girl child. Na Khaunga, Na Khane Dunga (Corruption) and Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (Inclusive Development) became the guiding principles for the governance. After nearly four years it is time to evaluate the impact and fruition of these initiatives.

Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas(Inclusive Development)

There is not a speck of doubt that visionary schemes like Jan Dhan, Ujjwala, Mudra, Gram Jyoti Yojna, Awas Yojna, Swachh Bharat, Smart Cities, Digital India launched with good intentions and sincere hopes have improved the quality of life of millions under-privileged people. While some like Ujjwala (5 crore beneficiaries) have done quite well , more ambitious one like ‘Swachh Bharat’ have not measured up to expectations. Still nearly 500 million people mostly belonging to disadvantaged and vulnerable sections of society have benefited from these schemes. Under DBT (Direct Benefit Transfer) a massive sum of Rs 2.65 Lakh Crores (US$ 40 billion) pocketed earlier by ‘middlemen’ have gone direct to 41.14 Crore beneficiaries under 366 schemes till Feb 15, 2018. ‘Ayushman Bharat’ – World's largest healthcare programme under which 100 million families will get Rs 5 Lakh per year to protect their health has been launched in Feb, 2018. It's intended to benefit nearly 50 Crore (half billion) of its poorest citizen in coming years. Modi Govt also hopes to complete 80% work relating to ‘Clean Ganga’ project by March, 2019. If accomplished it would be a colossal achievement. PM Modi has tried to reach to all sections of society and his stock among minorities would have gone higher but for the violent acts of some self-styled 'vigilantes' in the name of Gau Raksha, Love Jihad and Statue destruction. The fringe elements in the country, irrespective of their caste or religion must be isolated and adequately punished to maintain social harmony and peace. With one year left, loudmouth BJP leaders should spare the party and themselves blushes by their inane and sometimes bizarre statements causing avoidable controversies. They should let ‘Darwin’ and ‘Einstein’ sleep in peace.

                 

Na Khaunga Na Khane Dunga(Corruption)

Corruption like poverty is a stark reality which is seen, felt, heard and smelled by millions in this country, in one form or the other, everyday. Crimes like drug and human trafficking, coercive illegal activities of sand, water and mining mafia, encroachments of public land etc are some of its toxic by-products, Modi Govt can take credit for Na Khaunga as he and his Ministers remain spotlessly clean and there have been no stain of scams unlike their predecessor. To fight the menace of black money, Modi Govt on Nov 8, 2016 demonetised Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 currency notes amounting to Rs 15 lakh crore (US$ 190 billion). This dauntless decision was meant to reduce corruption, eradicate black money, root out terror financing, fake currency and spur digital payments. This bold step met its target to a great extent but in the process also created negative side effects for economy in terms of job losses in unorganized sector, reduced GDP growth and rural stress affecting farmers. In July, 2017, Govt introduced GST (Goods and Services Tax) – the biggest tax reform since Independence and brought India under ‘one nation, one tax’ system, by subsuming a multiplicity of Central and State taxes. It has improved tax governance by curbing tax evasion and expanding the tax net to a great extent. Both these steps have led to addition of 18 Lakh new taxpayers in the last 13 months. Still it is work in progress and real impact will be known in a year or so.

     

     However, Modi Govt have not been quite successful in fulfilling their resolve of Na Khane Dunga and even these strong measures have failed to stop the brazenly corrupt officials who continue to demand and get bribes from common man in infamous departments like Municipal corporations, Panchayat Samitis, Police, PWD, Revenue, RTO, RCS etc as borne out by media reports/stings from time to time. Private hospitals and schools are not far behind in exploitation and loot of their patients and wards by overcharging and cheating. As for the corruption in Public sector banks, the post-demonetisation raids by IT, CBI, ED and other agencies had brought to light the perfidious role of corrupt bankers in conversion of black money into white and the revelations so far in Vijay Mallya, Nirav Modi and other mega frauds have re-confirmed their criminal complicity. To top it all, there have been no conviction in major scams like Coalgate, 2G, Railgate, NHRM and Ponzi schemes like Saradha, Pearl, Rose valley and land scandals involving politicians and builders in the last 4 years. The delay in prosecution of culprits is both intriguing and exasperating.

The unholy nexus of sleazy politicians, greedy bureaucrats and crony capitalists is fully responsible for these and other scams. But just as there can't be “Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark” no big-ticket scam is imaginable without, direct or indirect, support of the political class. Even the apex court agrees with this cardinal truth and in Dec, 2017 they gave green signal to Centre's scheme to set up 12 fast track courts to exclusively prosecute and dispose 1581 criminal cases pending against Member of Parliament/State Legislative Assemblies within 12 months. Supreme Court has also not spared the premier investigating agencies for tardy progress in high-profile cases. On March, 2018, the Supreme Court expressing their ‘unhappiness’ in the slow progress of 2G case have observed why the probe couldn't be completed in the last 4 years. People of this country have a right to know about it. Is there any individual hand due to which probe couldn't be completed? Sounding a note of warning the SC asked the CBI & ED to complete the investigation in 6 months and warned “we will haul up all probe officers if it is not done”. The apex court can't be more explicit and emphatic. Their unambiguous message conveys the feelings of millions of honest taxpayers in India. All the concerned agencies should be given a free hand and tasked to get concrete results within the stipulated period of 6 months as desired by the Apex court. These are hard times and it's not easy to get competent, honest and intrepid bureaucrats, but there are still plenty of them around. An endangered species like Tiger they need Govt's full protection to give their best to the nation.

There is an acute urgency to speed up and secure conviction in all criminal cases involving politicians, some of whom have been pandering to and surviving on the strength of anti-social and anti-national elements while others of their ilk are involved in 'divisive' caste/religion based vote-bank politics. They need to be divested of their ill-gotten wealth and their murky ‘rags to riches’ stories should be told to the nation. A humongous country like India aspiring to be a great power in the world  cannot be left to the shenanigans of these rogue politicians neck-deep in the loot of public money to enrich themselves and their parasite family members – most of whom cannot earn a living on their own. In New India one who does not work, neither shall he eat. Modi Govt must do its utmost to put an end to this pillage in a ruthless, swift and transparent manner before this year is out. Corruption cannot be eradicated but can be drastically reduced by a combination of precise and fair laws, high-end technology, speedy trial/conviction and more importantly the certainty of punishment.
A great opportunity for PM Modi to declare an all-out war against the Djinn of Corruption which has taken control of our lives. There are at least 4 reasons why PM Modi can do it – he is a strong leader, honest, incorruptible and free from family encumbrance and if he can score even a partial victory it will reduce crime and poverty in India, boost economic growth and create more jobs for burgeoning youths, inculcate moral and ethical values in Indian society, refurbish India's image abroad and may also help BJP win 2019 elections comfortably. Needless to say, many of his political opponents may have rendered themselves ‘hors de combat’ a la Lalu.

It won't be easy but strong leaders are capable of bringing reforms in most unconventional manner like what Mustafa Kemal Pasha, the founder of modern Turkey struggling to ban women from wearing burqa did in a very wise way by issuing the following decree:"With immediate effect all Turkish women are privileged to wear whatever they choose, however, all prostitutes must wear a burqa."

Mission 2019 : Delhi via Lucknow

Mission 2019 : Delhi via Lucknow

These are best of the times for Modi-led BJP. It couldn't have been worse for other parties. BJP have won most of the elections in 2017 – whether State Assembly, Municipal Corporations or Panchayat. If March elections gave 4 out of 5 states to BJP including a landslide win in India's most populous state of UP, winning Delhi MCD polls in April was sweet revenge for its humiliating loss in February, 2015. UP's victory was both spectacular and unprecedented with BJP & allies notching up 325 out of 403 seats. Party President Amit Shah and other leaders meticulously prepared the ground and PM Modi led from the front to score a historic victory. These elections have re-established him as the only pan-India leader in the entire country. Like Amitabh Bachchan of 70s & 80s in Bollywood, Modi is one-man army in the Indian political arena at the moment and has virtually no competition in sight. He's earned this tag the hard way – on the sheer strength of his peerless qualities of clear vision, personal integrity, indefatigable zeal and proclivity to reach the common man on a regular basis. He inspires confidence among his team and masses by not flinching from taking bold decisions e.g. Surgical strikes, Demonetisation and ban on red beacons for VIPs. Modi is in total command as can be surmised by his exhortations to party MPs to "take credit" for all the good work that the Govt has done, instead of giving the entire credit to him.

Swift and Steady: Modi Govt which would be completing 3 years shortly has made tremendous stride in benefiting common man through a slew of meaningful schemes like Jan Dhan, Ujjwala, Mudra Bank, Swachh Bharat, Digital India, Smart cities to name a few. While some of these schemes (Ujjwala) have done exceedingly well, others like Swachh Bharat leave much to be desired. But saplings of some of the social welfare 'trees' planted during last 3 years are already bearing fruits to poor, disadvantaged and vulnerable section of Indian society and would, in next 2 years, become much stronger trees. The number of beneficiaries may rise to over 600 million by 2019 under various schemes/projects. Prediction of good monsoon, record food production, low inflation and expected seamless implementation of GST are likely to play a vital role in keeping GDP above 7% but there are still many challenges particularly sluggish industrial growth and paucity of new jobs which need to be addressed on a priority basis. No one expects that all the nearly 50 schemes launched since 2014 can be finished by 2019 but it may be possible to complete the following landmark projects in the next 2 years:

·       A patrol-free, multi-layered, smart fence along India's border with Pakistan and Bangladesh

·       Transforming at least 10 cities including Varanasi into Smart Cities

·       Perceptible progress in Clean Ganga project in the states of UP and Uttarakhand

·       Sagarmala project which aims to provide infrastructure to transport goods to and from ports quickly and cheaply

Corruption and Crime: Na Khaunga, Na Khane Dunga (Corruption), Na Baithunga, Na Baithne Dunga (Hard work) and Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (Inclusive development) are the main guiding principles for Modi Government. Of these, the most vital would be eradication of corruption. It's gratifying to note that Modi Govt remains spotlessly clean and there have been no stigma of scams, unlike its predecessor. But the situation for millions of lesser mortals remains unchanged. They still have to grease the  palms of brazenly corrupt officials in notorious departments like PWD, Municipal corporations, RTO, RCS, Panchayat samiti, Police, Revenue, Education and Health etc. Unless these dens of graft are cleansed, the common man will continue to suffer. Doing so would be as arduous as cleaning our rivers or protecting our forests but a combination of strong political will, honest officials and high-level technology can make a difference. However, the biggest challenge would be to catch and prosecute the high-profile corrupt 'politicians' infamous for their 'rags to riches' stories having wallowed in muddy waters of divisive vote bank politics for decades, Crackdown on Benami  properties, money-laundering, round tripping and Shell companies  should be done on a war footing to nab these 'parasites'. 

There is huge expectation that a strong and incorruptible leader like Modi will do this sooner rather than later. It's time to unleash Benami bomb on usurpers of public money. It so happens that a majority of Modi's virulent critics, directly or indirectly, are involved in various scams and ponzi schemes and their adequate punishment under the law of the land will bring huge political dividends to him and BJP.

What is required is setting up of high-level fast-track courts to handle such cases. All the premier investigating agencies should be tasked to assist these courts in order to obtain concrete results within a time-frame of 12 to 18 months. A bunch of casteist, communal, corrupt and criminal politicians should not be allowed to prevent creation of a 'New India' in which only hard working, honest, law-abiding, truly secular and nationalist citizens would flourish. Crime is an emanation of corruption and corrupt politicians need pliable bureaucrats and dreaded criminals to conduct their nefarious activities. Thus, a symbiotic relationship formed by politicians, police and criminals are at the root of all major scams.                            

Time is running out for self-appointed secular parties whose leaders have deceived the gullible masses in the name of caste and religion. Modi's solid work in 3 years and his benign intention and steely resolve to improve the lives of poor, women and middle class should worry the family-fixated politicians as much as crude practitioners of vote bank politics or 'fly- by- night' parties like AAP. The main opposition party will continue to shrink in coming months and prescient Congressmen will jump ship to join BJP.  Right now, Modi is monarch of all he surveys and Omar Abdullah's words “we might as well forget 2019 and start planning/hoping for 2024" may turn out prophetic.

Yogi in UP: If Yogi has been handpicked for the tough job in UP, it could be part of a well-thought out strategy for 2019. He's young, honest and hardworking and like Modi has no family encumbrance. He may lack administrative experience but will learn very fast on the job. Besides, he has a good team and will be constantly guided and monitored by PM and other central leaders. One of the reasons to place Yogi in the hot seat could be to send a strong message to people of India. The message – if a humongous state like UP with over 220 million people, misgoverned and plundered by corrupt and criminals in last 15 years like never before can be transformed by BJP Govt into a 'normal' functioning state within 2 years from now, the party would merit another chance in 2019 with even bigger majority. In short, UP can be a template for 'Good Governance'. All eyes will be on Yogi now. To his credit, he has got off to a promising start.

Demonetisation: Battling the Black Demons of Corruption

"Corruption is Authority Plus Monopoly Minus Transparency"

             On 8th Nov at the stroke of 8.00 p.m. PM Narendra Modi announced to the nation his Govt's decision to withdraw Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 currency notes. The news came like a bolt from the blue and has affected 1.25 billion people, directly or indirectly, since then. The biggest crackdown on black money in India's history resulted in sudden withdrawal of 86% of currency value in circulation amounting to nearly Rs 15 lakh crore ($190 billion).

            According to Indian Institute of Public Finance and Policy (IIPFP), evasion of personal income tax (48%), under-reporting of production (28%) and under-registration of immovable property (18%) account for 94% of illegal income generated domestically and India's black money is estimated by some experts to be around 20% of India's GDP in 2016 ($ 2.3 trillion) which works out to a colossal Rs 30 lakh crore ($ 460 billion). Further, according to some estimates major chunk of black money (75%) has been invested in undisclosed foreign holdings, real estate, precious metals like gold, diamond, undervalued stocks, benami financial investments and barely 25% is stashed in cash.

            PM's audacious move, in the initial days, seemed to have choked the supply of black money into hawala operations, real estate transactions, financing of cross-border terrorists, insurgents in North East & Maoists, stone pelting in J&K and election funding besides abolishing counterfeit currency. However, those sitting on huge piles of unaccounted or ill-gotten wealth soon started getting restless and sprung into action of converting their black money into legal tender. Raids by agencies like Income Tax, CBI, ED, DRI and others have unearthed massive laundering of unaccounted black money and confiscated nearly Rs 4,000 crores in the form of new currency notes, gold, diamonds etc from these culprits. Media must be complimented for their invaluable sting operations and investigative reporting on the underhand exploits of the unscrupulous practitioners of  JUGAAD (ingenuity) to subvert and undo demonetization  with the connivance of corrupt bankers, bureaucrats and politicians. The services of poor and jobless were suitably utilized for depositing money in Jan Dhan accounts, for standing in long queues for exchange of invalid old notes in small lots, proving the maxim that in critical moments even the very powerful and rich have the need of weakest and poor.

            Govt's decision came in for scathing criticism by many opposition parties and they didn't let Parliament function during most of its winter session. It is an open secret that some politicians have personal reasons to raise their banners against this bold step as they stand to lose their assiduously hoarded unaccounted black money. However, this historic step was praised by some opposition Chief Ministers like Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik, Chandrababu Naidu to name a few creating dissension. Besides, PM Modi chose to take his fight against corruption in the people's court through his aggressive speeches and 'Man ki Baat'. He appealed to their collective goodness and honesty promising more attacks on the citadel of corruption in coming months. His political instinct in reaching out to common man seems to have worked so far as no riots or serious law & order crisis happened in most of the country as imagined by some politicians. The corrupt may wail, critic may whimper, cynic may whine but protagonist of  a better, clean and developed India are not unhappy. This bold and ambitious step is likely to boost Govt revenue, encourage bank lending, bring down interest rates and promote cashless shopping. In a big and diversified country like India it may be impossible to have a cashless economy but with focus on digitization some proportion of cash can be decreased gradually. Less cash plausible, cashless economy difficult.

            PM Modi can take heart from the ground reality that an overwhelming majority of Indians have backed his resolve to fight corruption in spite of tremendous inconvenience suffered by them in the last 50 days. Their love and respect for him will increase further if his Govt takes speedy action to nab big sharks and whales flourishing for decades in the murky waters of corruption and black money. The man on the street will have a vicarious pleasure if a special fast track court is set up soon to prosecute all demonetisation-related criminals - be they bankers, bureaucrats, politicians or businessmen - within a stipulated time-limit of 90 days. Their names should be in public domain to deter the potential crooks. Other high-profile pending corruption cases like 2G Spectrum, Coalgate. Railgate, CWG, NHRM etc need to be expedited and guilty punished. PM may also consider mandatory digitisation of land and property records linked to Aadhaar & PAN numbers, simplification of tax structure and other reforms suggested by various experts and committees to curb regeneration of black money. The pragmatic advice of great thinker Chanakya (370 - 283 BC) in the matter of tax collection is still relevant "A taxman should be like a honey bee which sucks just the right amount of honey from the flower so that both can survive." Also, the quantum of punishment for big ticket financial fraud cases should be enhanced to at least 25 years in prison without parole. It is pertinent to recall that in June, 2009 a US court sentenced fraudster and operator of a Ponzi scheme, Bernard Madoff to 150 years in prison and penalty of $170 billion for his ponzi scheme. Can we expect such exemplary punishment for similar crimes committed in Saradha, Pearl and Rose valley ponzi schemes in India? In the last 70 years the experience of honest tax-payers has been that strong and powerful criminals manage to escape the clutches of law. This perception should change and Modi Govt can do it. But the biggest blow to black money will come if Govt brings the funding of political parties under the purview of RTI & Income Tax authorities. Transparency in polity will have a domino effect on improving the quality of bureaucracy and judiciary.

            It is not clear as to how long cash crunch will last and so far it had been a 'Winter of discomfort' for the silent majority. But if Govt can restore even 70% of normalcy in the availability of reasonable cash through banks/ATMs, by mid-Jan, 2017 the honest and hardworking populace of the land may be willing to forget their misery and soldier on with same fortitude as they have done since Nov 8, 2016. hoping for better future echoing Shelly's uplifting words "If winter comes can spring be far behind". After 50 gruelling days it's advantage Modi.

Transforming India Modi "Ishtyle" - First 2 years

"If hard work is your weapon

Success will be your slave"

Narendra Modi Govt completed its 2 years in office 3 days back. Two gone, three more years to go. It had been a tumultuous year all over the world and India was no exception. Much has already been said or written elsewhere about Govt's performance or non-performance during last 2 years. There will be divergence of views on the efficacy of Govt's functioning but Modi as its leader comes out with flying colours for his sustained work and sheer tenacity to achieve his dream of a better India. Not a speck of doubt on that.

Reforms: His vision encompasses both plausible initiatives like JAN DHAN and difficult ones like SWACHH BHARAT. But the centre of his governance is the ubiquitous common man  and towards this end, his Govt has passed many important bills in the Parliament like Real Estate regulation, Insolvency and Bankruptcy, Aadhar and carried out several impactful economic reforms including decontrol of diesel prices, liberalizing FDI rules, forming Bank Boards Bureau and improving ease of doing business   For statistics  aficionado - 21.81 crores new bank accounts with Rs. 37,616 crores deposit under Jan Dhan, 3.39 crore self-employed granted loans amounting to 1.41 lakh crore under Mudra Yojna, Ujjwala scheme of free LPG for poor likely to benefit 5 crore families by 2019 and introduction of DBT( Direct Benefit Transfer) plugging the leakages and saving nearly Rs. 15,000 crore and with potential to save Rs. 70,000 crore per year.  Newly launched schemes like Crop insurance, NAM (National Agriculture Market) and Soil Health Card aim at welfare and financial security of farmers and development of Agriculture in India. Modi Govt also fulfilled its promise of granting OROP (One Rank One Pension) to retired defence personnel which had been hanging fire since 1973. This will benefit 32 lakh ex-servicemen and widows. In short, Modi has planted these fruit-bearing economic trees to transform the lives of millions of poor, needy and vulnerable sections of society. When time comes, these may well transform into vote-yielding trees. However, all the excellent work pertaining to development and economic growth will be negated if there is no check on population growth. Our demographic dividend may become demographic disaster.

Domestic politics: From Oct, 2015 onward there was never a dull moment on domestic political front. Be it Intolerance debate, Award wapsi episode, disturbances in Hyderabad and JNU campuses, the main opposition and leftist parties kept the pot boiling for several months and some media channels chose to play ball with them. Party's own loudmouths did their best to discomfit the Govt by their inane, insensitive and provocative utterances. Modi Govt had to work hard to restore normalcy. Manufactured or not, these salvos were certainly well-calibrated and one of the causes of BJP's defeat in Bihar. By scoring a historic victory in Assam and improving its votes share in Kerala, BJP has shown that it may have learnt its lesson from Bihar and Delhi debacles. Party President Amit Shah gets a much-needed shot in the arm ahead of 2017 elections in UP but much remains to be done by Modi Govt in coming months.

Corruption: During last 2 years high level corruption has almost disappeared and there have been no big-ticket scams or cases of crony-capitalism. Progress on Black money is steady but slow and it is a depressing situation where country's middle class is struggling to pay their taxes and ' wilful defaulters' like Mallya are having a ball at the taxpayers cost. People may forget the promised Rs. 15 lakh to every Indian if culprits are brought to book and black money is recovered from them. Modi Govt also has to curb corruption in the lower echelons of bureaucracy. This may not be possible without active support from the state Govts but BJP-ruled states can be tasked to make their own states corruption-free in the next 2 years. Corruption in India ranking a high 76 among 168 most corrupt nations will always be relevant for winning or losing elections.        

Diplomacy: Modi has made official visits to 36 countries since becoming Prime Minister and developed personal rapport with many of world's top leaders, pursued vigorously India's economic and strategic interests and raised India's global profile. His unconventional approach to diplomacy has been, more or less, effective. Foreign ministry continues to be one of the top ministries in terms of performance. After his successful visit to UAE in Aug, 2015 his recent visits to Saudi Arabia (April) and Iran (May) were both symbolic and substantive. The trilateral agreement with Afghanistan and Iran on Chabahar port is the real takeaway, as it provides a gateway into Afghanistan which will enable us to contribute to its economic development and deepen our energy relationship with Central Asia, besides outflanking China-Pakistan Gwadar project. Despite Modi Govt's best efforts our relations with both China and Pakistan remain tense and complicated. China have an invaluable asset in Pakistan and they continue to needle us on cantankerous issues like its ambitious US $46 billion economic corridor through POK, Azhar Masood UN ban or NSG. China hopes to replace USA as No. 1 power in future and keeps us bogged down with problematic Pakistan. Our difficulties with China can be opportunities for both India and US and Modi's forthcoming visit to the US assumes significance in this backdrop. Perhaps, time is ripe to come a little closer to US and take our relationship to a new high in matters relating to technology-access, nuclear, defence and security. In 2008 Georg Bush (Jr) got us unique 'waiver' in 45-member NSG in the face of stiff opposition from China. Eight years later let us see if Obama can go all out like Bush and get us NSG's membership.

Challenges: There are several areas where this Govt is facing serious challenges, primarily low rate of job creation, high prices of essential food items like pulses, fruits and vegetables affecting a majority of population. It must find a legal way to eliminate the middlemen to benefit both the farmers and consumers. Hoarders and Black marketeers are as pernicious as any other hardcore criminal and deserve no mercy. Groundwater level in India has been going down steadily and water shortage has assumed alarming proportions and its conservation needs to be tackled on a war-footing. There is great hope that Modi Govt would find a sustainable solution to this crisis just as it's trying to clean Ganga and other rivers.

Narendra Modi is an energetic leader with a grand vision and rare ability to turn this vision into realty. He is a human dynamo and working 16 hours a day without a holiday in 2 years. More importantly, he is a good listener and even a better communicator and must be getting crucial feedback from millions of Indians through innovative 'Mann Ki Baat' and ' mygovt.in'. As for his team, some Ministers have done better than expected, many have done reasonably good while others have been pedestrian doing precious little and need to be eased out. 2 years is a long period to assess the performance and time for reshuffle is now.

Finally, in the backdrop of 7.5% growth of GDP, all-time high foreign exchange reserves of US$ 360 billion, over 11% increase in power generation, a bumper Monsoon and GST can be real mood changers.

Read: One Year In Hot Pursuit Of Acche Din

Battle for Bihar- Cast(e) in Development

Battle for Bihar 2015 – Cast(e) in Development  

A significant event took place on 22 October 1764 in Bihar. Known as Battle of Buxar it was fought between the English East India Company and Indian forces at Buxar. The company forces under the command of Major Hector Munro inflicted a crushing defeat on the combined forces of Nawab of Bengal Mir Qasim, Nawab of Awadh Shuja-ud-Daula and Mughal King Shah Alam II. This victory established the supremacy of English forces in Bengal, Bihar, Orissa and beyond.

  

251 years later, another kind of battle is being fought in Bihar. This is an electoral battle to be decided by 6.68 crore voters in Bihar. The main fight is between NDA forces spearheaded by PM Narendra Modi and a loose alliance of 3 parties called Mahagathbandhan or GA (Grand Alliance) under the joint command of bitter foes-turned-friends Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Both are tallest leaders among Yadav and Kurmi – dominant backward castes and have substantial following among Muslims. It is pertinent to mention that Nitish Kumar was aligned with NDA for 17 years (1996 – 2013) and was instrumental in bringing an end to Lalu's misrule in 2005. Miffed with anointment of Narendra Modi on Sept 13, 2013 as BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate for 2014 Parliamentary elections, he broke the coalition on the specious ground of 'secularism'. His image took a hit after his 'opportunistic' alliance with bete noire Lalu. 

The wily Lalu in his heydays was a brazen practitioner of caste politics and evolved an unbeatable MY (Muslim/Yadav) combo enabling his party RJD (read family) to rule for 15 years (1990-2005). With no aptitude for governance or development he let loose a reign of terror aka Jungle Raj driving millions of Bihari youths to other parts of India in search of education, job, security and better life. During his regime Dalits and Extremely Backward Castes (EBC) suffered , his Yadav fraternity prospered, corruption ruled the roost and criminals got emboldened making kidnapping for ransom a flourishing industry.  While the state was plunged in the darkness of anarchy, Lalu's main vocation was taking good care of his family - illiterate wife (whom he made Chief Minister for 5 years) and nine children. But he is more infamous for Fodder Scam case in which he was convicted for 5 years and barred from contesting elections. No wonder, Bihar which was considered the second- best governed state in India in 1953 in the Paul Appleby report slid down to bottom.

Lalu's party was dethroned in 2005 Assembly elections by a coalition of BJP and JD (U) led by Nitish Kumar. The biggest achievement of Nitish-led Govt in Bihar was to end Lalu's Jungle Raj.  His Govt initiated several social welfare schemes for the benefit of women, girl child and extremely poor sections besides constructing roads. The coalition ran smoothly primarily because BJP let Nitish run it and played second fiddle to him. Their good work and Nitish's clean image enabled the coalition to score a landslide victory in 2010 elections, winning 206 out of 243 seats with Lalu's party getting a paltry 22 seats. His Govt controlled crime and did basic development work like roads,schools etc but failed miserably to make headway in the core areas of power, industries and jobs. Mass copying in exams and appointment of thousands of fake teachers made a mockery of education while corruption remained untamed. All this while Nitish kept his image of a good administrator intact with the help of spin doctors. But in a caste-ridden state like Bihar, even Nitish couldn't resist the lure of caste politics. Guided by his vulpine political instincts, he did his own brand of social engineering by carving out EBC, Mahadalit and Pasmanda Muslim from OBC, Dalit & Muslim segments of electorate. So if boisterous Lalu known for his clownish antics was crude practitioner of caste politics in Bihar, soft-spoken Nitish was its suave high priest. In a nutshell, the main contribution of these two politicians with a socialist background was to convert castes into miasma of vote politics. It's not that caste politics was absent before they arrived but they were so enamoured of it that governance took a back seat. While politicians were winning elections, Bihar was steadily losing ground and suffering of poor and migration of its youth continued.

      

       Politics is war by another means and everything is fair in war and all contenders are doing the worst to show their best face as in earlier elections. The weft and warp of the caste tapestry is on full display to entice voters. While NDA has promised Bijli-Paani -Sadak (Electricity,Water,Road) to State and Kamai,Padhai and Dawai (Job, Education and Medicine) to every family, Lalu/Nitish duo who have ruled Bihar for the last 25 years and their junior partner Congress are using Caste,Religion and Modi-bashing as their main weapons. A majority of voters are likely to vote along the caste lines with Upper Caste, Dalit and Mahadalit (38%) opting for NDA  and the formidable combination of  Yadav, Kurmi and Muslim (34%) backing GA. In addition, there are 16 parties either on their own or as part of Third and Left front like NCP, SP, BSP, Owaisi's MIM and strong Independent and rebel candidates in the fray. They have slim chance of success but may take away about 8 to 10% votes mainly from GA and bag around a dozen seats. But the special target of all parties is vulnerable 24% EBCs voters who are divided into 94 castes and scattered all over the state. However, the real swing may be provided by 20 million 'aspirational' youth ( below 30 years) and women voters casting their lot with party promising development and security who may be attracted by the unprecedented special package of  1.65 lakh crore for Bihar's development announced by PM Modi in August,2015. In short, youth, women and EBC voters will decide the winner. They are more likely to sway to Modi's catchy tunes of development, job opportunities and better infrastructures than listen to shrill diatribe of Lalu and Nitish against him.

After 4 rounds of voting for 186 seats it's a neck-to- neck race with NDA slightly ahead of GA  Polling for the remaining 57 seats will take place on 5th Nov in the sensitive Seemanchal area which has substantial Muslim population and there is a distinct possibility of polarization of votes. If that happens, NDA will romp home to victory. In the worst case scenario BJP wil score a century and NDA will win around 130 seats. In case the Juggernaut of Development crushes the Djinn of Regression they may reach 160 mark. Let us see who takes the mantle of Major Hector Munro on 8th November.

ONE YEAR IN HOT PURSUIT OF ACCHE DIN

One Year In Hot Pursuit Of Acche Din

One year is a good time to make an objective assessment of the performance of a Govt. with a life span of five years. Something like the first 10 overs in a 50 over cricket match. NDA led by charismatic Narendra Modi completes one year in office next week. In a diverse and complex country of 1.25 billion there would be million voices on what he has done or what he didn't to redeem the promises he made during the elections last year. Let the facts speak for themselves. 

Positives

Increased FDI in Insurance, Defence, Railways and Construction Projects, more funds for States, online transparent auction of Spectrum, Coal yielding over Rs 3 lakh crores, Nuclear Liability Agreement, bringing down inflation from 8.59% (April, 2014) to 4.87% (April, 2015), deregulation of Diesel prices and path-breaking law on Black Money to name a few. All welcome steps as are the Govt's herculean efforts of dismantling the dysfunctional system of procedural clearances to attract heavy investments in India which ranks 142 out of 189 countries on the ease of doing business index.

A pity that 2 major bills – Land acquisition & GST bills, considered key enablers to speed up the economic reforms process, have been delayed in the face of strong protests by Congress party passing through the confused state of cognitive dissonance. These could have activated the economy as India is poised for stable growth momentum.

Negatives

However, everything is not so hunky-dory. Modi's failure to rein in habitual offenders from raising, time and again, inane issues like love jihad and ghar-wapsi is inexplicable. The reprehensible speeches of these loudmouths, besides causing unease and anxiety among some sections of minorities go against party's committed goal of Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas. A stern leader like Modi should have chastised them and saved party from adverse publicity in domestic & international media. Publicity is essential in democracy to keep in touch with people yet its overdose can be counter-productive, as it happened in monogrammed suit controversy. But real areas of concern are high food prices, new jobs and farmers’ apprehension on Land bill.

Works in progress

The innovative financial inclusions steps like Jan Dhan Yojna (Banking the unbanked), MUDRA (Funding the unfunded) and social security schemes Jeevan Suraksha Yojana aim at empowering the farmers, small businessmen, lower middle class and vulnerable sections of the society. But the real game-changer could be the saplings of economic growth like 5 new ultra mega power projects of 4000 MW each and heavy infrastructure projects in roads, railways, airports & ports besides the more ambitious ventures like Make in India, Digital India, Sagarmala and Smart cities being planted by his Govt. These will need adequate time, huge money and constant monitoring to develop into robust fruit-bearing trees. Add Swach Bharat and Namami Ganga projects to the list and one gets an idea of Modi's grand vision for a modern India. The bottom line is Modi Sarkar is as high on performance as it is on promises. It would, however, be naive to believe that all this can happen in a trice. You can get Maggi noodles in 2 minutes but not a sumptuous biryani.

Corruption

Govt's 2 bold initiatives to tackle this menace has been stringent laws on Black Money stashed abroad and proposed Benami bill to nab tax-dodgers and creators of domestic black money. Its decision to treat graft as a 'heinous' crime, punishment for both bribe-takers and bribe-givers up to 7 years, acceptance of non-monetary gratification as 'bribe' and 2-year time-frame for completion of graft cases will be enabling steps to curb corruption in upper echelons. But it is brazen and widespread corruption at the level of junior officials in municipality, police, transport, hospitals/schools, income tax etc. which directly affects millions on a daily basis that should be stemmed on a war footing with the help of latest technology and honest officials.

     A daunting task but Modi can do it. He sounds credible with his statements like - "Na khaunga Na khane dunga", "Rules are same for Mukesh Ambani and common man", "his Govt will have a level playing field for all and he will not spoon-feed anyone". These may not be palatable to those who have thrived all these years within the protected confines of crony-capitalism but genuine investors would be reassured. 

Population

All gains of economic bonanza will go waste if our ever rising population is not controlled. A new population policy which is neither coercive nor cosmetic is required. It can have dollops of financial, educational medical and social incentives for having a small family. Campaigns like Beti Bachao Beti Padhao can be very useful. For political reasons, a revolutionary step may not be feasible at the moment but this is as serious an issue as rampant corruption and has many deleterious side effects like pollution, poverty, unemployment, crime etc.

Foreign Policy

This is one area where even his trenchant critics would concede that he has been successful in improving India's international image. His visit to 19 countries including 5 G-7 (US, Japan, Canada, France & Germany) have been very fruitful for India's economic development and political convergence and likely to bring tidy investment and latest technology to India, Modi has enthused millions of Indian diaspora during these visits and has become a cult-figure among them. He has also cemented ties with our neighbours, except Pakistan which continues to play the old game of one step forward, two steps back.

     Much was expected from Modi's 3-day state visit to China and Modi didn't disappoint. Both sides worked meticulously to make it a memorable visit. The talks were candid, constructive and comprehensive and a wide consensus seems to have been reached between two countries to put history and geography on a back burner and focus on culture, chemistry and economics (26 deals worth $22 billion) and move bilateral relations to a new high. "Seize the day, seize the hour" could be the new buzzword. Indian President's participation in Victory day celebrations in Moscow and signing of Chabahar port deal with Iran despite US warning show a confident India. The stupendous job of evacuations of thousands of people trapped in war-torn Iraq and Yemen and earthquake-hit Nepal including nationals of 45 countries earned us international acclaim and gratitude. Foreign Ministry on the move with great aplomb.

Party

After stunning victories in Maharashtra, Haryana, J&K and Jharkhand, BJP fell flat on its face in Delhi. In the backdrop of Delhi debacle, Amit Shah considered Modi's major-domo in the party can't afford to lose in Bihar. Testing times for him, his mentor and party. Modi's cabinet may not be "woefully short of talent" but there could be many square pegs in round holes. Summer would be good time for a minor reshuffle. Also a Sujh Bujh Ki Sarkar will avoid arrogance and embrace modesty in its day-to-day business. While arrogance magnifies a lapse, modesty reduces it.

Leader

Modi may not have the profundity of scholarship but keeps his feet on the ground and head in the clouds and joins them together. This rare quality gives him a depth of insight into intricate problems. Self-praise comes naturally to a politician and he is no exception but no politician works as hard as he does. During US visit in Sept, 2014 he worked while fasting and looked amazingly fresh. A real workaholic. He is also a good motivator as is evident from the way his appeal for surrender of LPG subsidy struck a chord among country's cynical affluent society. Modi's lavish praise of some of his cabinet colleagues and his advice to senior bureaucrats "to lead a tension-free life and spend quality time with their family members" were pleasant surprises.

Modi Govt's intentions for good governance is not in question but the core issue is speedy implementation of job-intensive mega projects capable of providing 5 to 6 million new jobs in next 2 years. To use the cricket analogy, Team Modi has made a solid start on a sticky wicket scoring 70 runs for no loss in first 10 overs - no scam, no scandal. But expectation from Modi is so high that even such a spectacular performance is not enough and people are asking for more.