Transforming India Modi "Ishtyle" - First 2 years

"If hard work is your weapon

Success will be your slave"

Narendra Modi Govt completed its 2 years in office 3 days back. Two gone, three more years to go. It had been a tumultuous year all over the world and India was no exception. Much has already been said or written elsewhere about Govt's performance or non-performance during last 2 years. There will be divergence of views on the efficacy of Govt's functioning but Modi as its leader comes out with flying colours for his sustained work and sheer tenacity to achieve his dream of a better India. Not a speck of doubt on that.

Reforms: His vision encompasses both plausible initiatives like JAN DHAN and difficult ones like SWACHH BHARAT. But the centre of his governance is the ubiquitous common man  and towards this end, his Govt has passed many important bills in the Parliament like Real Estate regulation, Insolvency and Bankruptcy, Aadhar and carried out several impactful economic reforms including decontrol of diesel prices, liberalizing FDI rules, forming Bank Boards Bureau and improving ease of doing business   For statistics  aficionado - 21.81 crores new bank accounts with Rs. 37,616 crores deposit under Jan Dhan, 3.39 crore self-employed granted loans amounting to 1.41 lakh crore under Mudra Yojna, Ujjwala scheme of free LPG for poor likely to benefit 5 crore families by 2019 and introduction of DBT( Direct Benefit Transfer) plugging the leakages and saving nearly Rs. 15,000 crore and with potential to save Rs. 70,000 crore per year.  Newly launched schemes like Crop insurance, NAM (National Agriculture Market) and Soil Health Card aim at welfare and financial security of farmers and development of Agriculture in India. Modi Govt also fulfilled its promise of granting OROP (One Rank One Pension) to retired defence personnel which had been hanging fire since 1973. This will benefit 32 lakh ex-servicemen and widows. In short, Modi has planted these fruit-bearing economic trees to transform the lives of millions of poor, needy and vulnerable sections of society. When time comes, these may well transform into vote-yielding trees. However, all the excellent work pertaining to development and economic growth will be negated if there is no check on population growth. Our demographic dividend may become demographic disaster.

Domestic politics: From Oct, 2015 onward there was never a dull moment on domestic political front. Be it Intolerance debate, Award wapsi episode, disturbances in Hyderabad and JNU campuses, the main opposition and leftist parties kept the pot boiling for several months and some media channels chose to play ball with them. Party's own loudmouths did their best to discomfit the Govt by their inane, insensitive and provocative utterances. Modi Govt had to work hard to restore normalcy. Manufactured or not, these salvos were certainly well-calibrated and one of the causes of BJP's defeat in Bihar. By scoring a historic victory in Assam and improving its votes share in Kerala, BJP has shown that it may have learnt its lesson from Bihar and Delhi debacles. Party President Amit Shah gets a much-needed shot in the arm ahead of 2017 elections in UP but much remains to be done by Modi Govt in coming months.

Corruption: During last 2 years high level corruption has almost disappeared and there have been no big-ticket scams or cases of crony-capitalism. Progress on Black money is steady but slow and it is a depressing situation where country's middle class is struggling to pay their taxes and ' wilful defaulters' like Mallya are having a ball at the taxpayers cost. People may forget the promised Rs. 15 lakh to every Indian if culprits are brought to book and black money is recovered from them. Modi Govt also has to curb corruption in the lower echelons of bureaucracy. This may not be possible without active support from the state Govts but BJP-ruled states can be tasked to make their own states corruption-free in the next 2 years. Corruption in India ranking a high 76 among 168 most corrupt nations will always be relevant for winning or losing elections.        

Diplomacy: Modi has made official visits to 36 countries since becoming Prime Minister and developed personal rapport with many of world's top leaders, pursued vigorously India's economic and strategic interests and raised India's global profile. His unconventional approach to diplomacy has been, more or less, effective. Foreign ministry continues to be one of the top ministries in terms of performance. After his successful visit to UAE in Aug, 2015 his recent visits to Saudi Arabia (April) and Iran (May) were both symbolic and substantive. The trilateral agreement with Afghanistan and Iran on Chabahar port is the real takeaway, as it provides a gateway into Afghanistan which will enable us to contribute to its economic development and deepen our energy relationship with Central Asia, besides outflanking China-Pakistan Gwadar project. Despite Modi Govt's best efforts our relations with both China and Pakistan remain tense and complicated. China have an invaluable asset in Pakistan and they continue to needle us on cantankerous issues like its ambitious US $46 billion economic corridor through POK, Azhar Masood UN ban or NSG. China hopes to replace USA as No. 1 power in future and keeps us bogged down with problematic Pakistan. Our difficulties with China can be opportunities for both India and US and Modi's forthcoming visit to the US assumes significance in this backdrop. Perhaps, time is ripe to come a little closer to US and take our relationship to a new high in matters relating to technology-access, nuclear, defence and security. In 2008 Georg Bush (Jr) got us unique 'waiver' in 45-member NSG in the face of stiff opposition from China. Eight years later let us see if Obama can go all out like Bush and get us NSG's membership.

Challenges: There are several areas where this Govt is facing serious challenges, primarily low rate of job creation, high prices of essential food items like pulses, fruits and vegetables affecting a majority of population. It must find a legal way to eliminate the middlemen to benefit both the farmers and consumers. Hoarders and Black marketeers are as pernicious as any other hardcore criminal and deserve no mercy. Groundwater level in India has been going down steadily and water shortage has assumed alarming proportions and its conservation needs to be tackled on a war-footing. There is great hope that Modi Govt would find a sustainable solution to this crisis just as it's trying to clean Ganga and other rivers.

Narendra Modi is an energetic leader with a grand vision and rare ability to turn this vision into realty. He is a human dynamo and working 16 hours a day without a holiday in 2 years. More importantly, he is a good listener and even a better communicator and must be getting crucial feedback from millions of Indians through innovative 'Mann Ki Baat' and ' mygovt.in'. As for his team, some Ministers have done better than expected, many have done reasonably good while others have been pedestrian doing precious little and need to be eased out. 2 years is a long period to assess the performance and time for reshuffle is now.

Finally, in the backdrop of 7.5% growth of GDP, all-time high foreign exchange reserves of US$ 360 billion, over 11% increase in power generation, a bumper Monsoon and GST can be real mood changers.

Read: One Year In Hot Pursuit Of Acche Din

Battle for Bihar- Cast(e) in Development

Battle for Bihar 2015 – Cast(e) in Development  

A significant event took place on 22 October 1764 in Bihar. Known as Battle of Buxar it was fought between the English East India Company and Indian forces at Buxar. The company forces under the command of Major Hector Munro inflicted a crushing defeat on the combined forces of Nawab of Bengal Mir Qasim, Nawab of Awadh Shuja-ud-Daula and Mughal King Shah Alam II. This victory established the supremacy of English forces in Bengal, Bihar, Orissa and beyond.

  

251 years later, another kind of battle is being fought in Bihar. This is an electoral battle to be decided by 6.68 crore voters in Bihar. The main fight is between NDA forces spearheaded by PM Narendra Modi and a loose alliance of 3 parties called Mahagathbandhan or GA (Grand Alliance) under the joint command of bitter foes-turned-friends Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Both are tallest leaders among Yadav and Kurmi – dominant backward castes and have substantial following among Muslims. It is pertinent to mention that Nitish Kumar was aligned with NDA for 17 years (1996 – 2013) and was instrumental in bringing an end to Lalu's misrule in 2005. Miffed with anointment of Narendra Modi on Sept 13, 2013 as BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate for 2014 Parliamentary elections, he broke the coalition on the specious ground of 'secularism'. His image took a hit after his 'opportunistic' alliance with bete noire Lalu. 

The wily Lalu in his heydays was a brazen practitioner of caste politics and evolved an unbeatable MY (Muslim/Yadav) combo enabling his party RJD (read family) to rule for 15 years (1990-2005). With no aptitude for governance or development he let loose a reign of terror aka Jungle Raj driving millions of Bihari youths to other parts of India in search of education, job, security and better life. During his regime Dalits and Extremely Backward Castes (EBC) suffered , his Yadav fraternity prospered, corruption ruled the roost and criminals got emboldened making kidnapping for ransom a flourishing industry.  While the state was plunged in the darkness of anarchy, Lalu's main vocation was taking good care of his family - illiterate wife (whom he made Chief Minister for 5 years) and nine children. But he is more infamous for Fodder Scam case in which he was convicted for 5 years and barred from contesting elections. No wonder, Bihar which was considered the second- best governed state in India in 1953 in the Paul Appleby report slid down to bottom.

Lalu's party was dethroned in 2005 Assembly elections by a coalition of BJP and JD (U) led by Nitish Kumar. The biggest achievement of Nitish-led Govt in Bihar was to end Lalu's Jungle Raj.  His Govt initiated several social welfare schemes for the benefit of women, girl child and extremely poor sections besides constructing roads. The coalition ran smoothly primarily because BJP let Nitish run it and played second fiddle to him. Their good work and Nitish's clean image enabled the coalition to score a landslide victory in 2010 elections, winning 206 out of 243 seats with Lalu's party getting a paltry 22 seats. His Govt controlled crime and did basic development work like roads,schools etc but failed miserably to make headway in the core areas of power, industries and jobs. Mass copying in exams and appointment of thousands of fake teachers made a mockery of education while corruption remained untamed. All this while Nitish kept his image of a good administrator intact with the help of spin doctors. But in a caste-ridden state like Bihar, even Nitish couldn't resist the lure of caste politics. Guided by his vulpine political instincts, he did his own brand of social engineering by carving out EBC, Mahadalit and Pasmanda Muslim from OBC, Dalit & Muslim segments of electorate. So if boisterous Lalu known for his clownish antics was crude practitioner of caste politics in Bihar, soft-spoken Nitish was its suave high priest. In a nutshell, the main contribution of these two politicians with a socialist background was to convert castes into miasma of vote politics. It's not that caste politics was absent before they arrived but they were so enamoured of it that governance took a back seat. While politicians were winning elections, Bihar was steadily losing ground and suffering of poor and migration of its youth continued.

      

       Politics is war by another means and everything is fair in war and all contenders are doing the worst to show their best face as in earlier elections. The weft and warp of the caste tapestry is on full display to entice voters. While NDA has promised Bijli-Paani -Sadak (Electricity,Water,Road) to State and Kamai,Padhai and Dawai (Job, Education and Medicine) to every family, Lalu/Nitish duo who have ruled Bihar for the last 25 years and their junior partner Congress are using Caste,Religion and Modi-bashing as their main weapons. A majority of voters are likely to vote along the caste lines with Upper Caste, Dalit and Mahadalit (38%) opting for NDA  and the formidable combination of  Yadav, Kurmi and Muslim (34%) backing GA. In addition, there are 16 parties either on their own or as part of Third and Left front like NCP, SP, BSP, Owaisi's MIM and strong Independent and rebel candidates in the fray. They have slim chance of success but may take away about 8 to 10% votes mainly from GA and bag around a dozen seats. But the special target of all parties is vulnerable 24% EBCs voters who are divided into 94 castes and scattered all over the state. However, the real swing may be provided by 20 million 'aspirational' youth ( below 30 years) and women voters casting their lot with party promising development and security who may be attracted by the unprecedented special package of  1.65 lakh crore for Bihar's development announced by PM Modi in August,2015. In short, youth, women and EBC voters will decide the winner. They are more likely to sway to Modi's catchy tunes of development, job opportunities and better infrastructures than listen to shrill diatribe of Lalu and Nitish against him.

After 4 rounds of voting for 186 seats it's a neck-to- neck race with NDA slightly ahead of GA  Polling for the remaining 57 seats will take place on 5th Nov in the sensitive Seemanchal area which has substantial Muslim population and there is a distinct possibility of polarization of votes. If that happens, NDA will romp home to victory. In the worst case scenario BJP wil score a century and NDA will win around 130 seats. In case the Juggernaut of Development crushes the Djinn of Regression they may reach 160 mark. Let us see who takes the mantle of Major Hector Munro on 8th November.

ONE YEAR IN HOT PURSUIT OF ACCHE DIN

One Year In Hot Pursuit Of Acche Din

One year is a good time to make an objective assessment of the performance of a Govt. with a life span of five years. Something like the first 10 overs in a 50 over cricket match. NDA led by charismatic Narendra Modi completes one year in office next week. In a diverse and complex country of 1.25 billion there would be million voices on what he has done or what he didn't to redeem the promises he made during the elections last year. Let the facts speak for themselves. 

Positives

Increased FDI in Insurance, Defence, Railways and Construction Projects, more funds for States, online transparent auction of Spectrum, Coal yielding over Rs 3 lakh crores, Nuclear Liability Agreement, bringing down inflation from 8.59% (April, 2014) to 4.87% (April, 2015), deregulation of Diesel prices and path-breaking law on Black Money to name a few. All welcome steps as are the Govt's herculean efforts of dismantling the dysfunctional system of procedural clearances to attract heavy investments in India which ranks 142 out of 189 countries on the ease of doing business index.

A pity that 2 major bills – Land acquisition & GST bills, considered key enablers to speed up the economic reforms process, have been delayed in the face of strong protests by Congress party passing through the confused state of cognitive dissonance. These could have activated the economy as India is poised for stable growth momentum.

Negatives

However, everything is not so hunky-dory. Modi's failure to rein in habitual offenders from raising, time and again, inane issues like love jihad and ghar-wapsi is inexplicable. The reprehensible speeches of these loudmouths, besides causing unease and anxiety among some sections of minorities go against party's committed goal of Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas. A stern leader like Modi should have chastised them and saved party from adverse publicity in domestic & international media. Publicity is essential in democracy to keep in touch with people yet its overdose can be counter-productive, as it happened in monogrammed suit controversy. But real areas of concern are high food prices, new jobs and farmers’ apprehension on Land bill.

Works in progress

The innovative financial inclusions steps like Jan Dhan Yojna (Banking the unbanked), MUDRA (Funding the unfunded) and social security schemes Jeevan Suraksha Yojana aim at empowering the farmers, small businessmen, lower middle class and vulnerable sections of the society. But the real game-changer could be the saplings of economic growth like 5 new ultra mega power projects of 4000 MW each and heavy infrastructure projects in roads, railways, airports & ports besides the more ambitious ventures like Make in India, Digital India, Sagarmala and Smart cities being planted by his Govt. These will need adequate time, huge money and constant monitoring to develop into robust fruit-bearing trees. Add Swach Bharat and Namami Ganga projects to the list and one gets an idea of Modi's grand vision for a modern India. The bottom line is Modi Sarkar is as high on performance as it is on promises. It would, however, be naive to believe that all this can happen in a trice. You can get Maggi noodles in 2 minutes but not a sumptuous biryani.

Corruption

Govt's 2 bold initiatives to tackle this menace has been stringent laws on Black Money stashed abroad and proposed Benami bill to nab tax-dodgers and creators of domestic black money. Its decision to treat graft as a 'heinous' crime, punishment for both bribe-takers and bribe-givers up to 7 years, acceptance of non-monetary gratification as 'bribe' and 2-year time-frame for completion of graft cases will be enabling steps to curb corruption in upper echelons. But it is brazen and widespread corruption at the level of junior officials in municipality, police, transport, hospitals/schools, income tax etc. which directly affects millions on a daily basis that should be stemmed on a war footing with the help of latest technology and honest officials.

     A daunting task but Modi can do it. He sounds credible with his statements like - "Na khaunga Na khane dunga", "Rules are same for Mukesh Ambani and common man", "his Govt will have a level playing field for all and he will not spoon-feed anyone". These may not be palatable to those who have thrived all these years within the protected confines of crony-capitalism but genuine investors would be reassured. 

Population

All gains of economic bonanza will go waste if our ever rising population is not controlled. A new population policy which is neither coercive nor cosmetic is required. It can have dollops of financial, educational medical and social incentives for having a small family. Campaigns like Beti Bachao Beti Padhao can be very useful. For political reasons, a revolutionary step may not be feasible at the moment but this is as serious an issue as rampant corruption and has many deleterious side effects like pollution, poverty, unemployment, crime etc.

Foreign Policy

This is one area where even his trenchant critics would concede that he has been successful in improving India's international image. His visit to 19 countries including 5 G-7 (US, Japan, Canada, France & Germany) have been very fruitful for India's economic development and political convergence and likely to bring tidy investment and latest technology to India, Modi has enthused millions of Indian diaspora during these visits and has become a cult-figure among them. He has also cemented ties with our neighbours, except Pakistan which continues to play the old game of one step forward, two steps back.

     Much was expected from Modi's 3-day state visit to China and Modi didn't disappoint. Both sides worked meticulously to make it a memorable visit. The talks were candid, constructive and comprehensive and a wide consensus seems to have been reached between two countries to put history and geography on a back burner and focus on culture, chemistry and economics (26 deals worth $22 billion) and move bilateral relations to a new high. "Seize the day, seize the hour" could be the new buzzword. Indian President's participation in Victory day celebrations in Moscow and signing of Chabahar port deal with Iran despite US warning show a confident India. The stupendous job of evacuations of thousands of people trapped in war-torn Iraq and Yemen and earthquake-hit Nepal including nationals of 45 countries earned us international acclaim and gratitude. Foreign Ministry on the move with great aplomb.

Party

After stunning victories in Maharashtra, Haryana, J&K and Jharkhand, BJP fell flat on its face in Delhi. In the backdrop of Delhi debacle, Amit Shah considered Modi's major-domo in the party can't afford to lose in Bihar. Testing times for him, his mentor and party. Modi's cabinet may not be "woefully short of talent" but there could be many square pegs in round holes. Summer would be good time for a minor reshuffle. Also a Sujh Bujh Ki Sarkar will avoid arrogance and embrace modesty in its day-to-day business. While arrogance magnifies a lapse, modesty reduces it.

Leader

Modi may not have the profundity of scholarship but keeps his feet on the ground and head in the clouds and joins them together. This rare quality gives him a depth of insight into intricate problems. Self-praise comes naturally to a politician and he is no exception but no politician works as hard as he does. During US visit in Sept, 2014 he worked while fasting and looked amazingly fresh. A real workaholic. He is also a good motivator as is evident from the way his appeal for surrender of LPG subsidy struck a chord among country's cynical affluent society. Modi's lavish praise of some of his cabinet colleagues and his advice to senior bureaucrats "to lead a tension-free life and spend quality time with their family members" were pleasant surprises.

Modi Govt's intentions for good governance is not in question but the core issue is speedy implementation of job-intensive mega projects capable of providing 5 to 6 million new jobs in next 2 years. To use the cricket analogy, Team Modi has made a solid start on a sticky wicket scoring 70 runs for no loss in first 10 overs - no scam, no scandal. But expectation from Modi is so high that even such a spectacular performance is not enough and people are asking for more.

Beginning Of Modi Era - The First 100 Days

The idea of showing achievements of a new government in its first 100 days in office is credited to famous American President FDR Roosevelt. He set this benchmark for himself in 1933.Since then many Presidents and Prime Ministers world over have followed this political ritual. India, a country of rituals, is no exception to this. The Govt led by Narendra Modi which took over the reins of power on 27^th May 2014, after a landslide win in the last election will be completing 100 days next week..

Early Days

Narendra Modi got off to a flying start. His gestures of bowing down and touching the ground with his forehead at the entrance of the Parliament on 20^th May 2014 or placing party and senior leaders above himself in his emotional address to party leaders in his first speech in the Parliament house or inviting SAARC leaders for his swearing-in ceremony were unconventional yet pleasant and improved the atmospherics after a bitterly fought election. His small cabinet, composed of both seasoned and hand-picked first-timers, evoked good response.Once in PM's chair he did not take much time in toning down the administration. Heralding a new ' work culture'  Ministers and senior officers were directed to keep their Ministries building clean, weed out obsolete records, maintain punctuality in their offices and undertake exercise to do away with archaic laws. To discourage nepotism Ministers were advised not to appoint their relatives as personal staff.  Setting up a SIT headed by Justice M B Shah to unearth black money was Modi cabinet's first action. His direct talk to country's top bureaucrats was a bold and rational move. He shared with them his discomfort with red tape and procedural delays and his firm belief in the concept of "Minimum government, Maximum governance" and mantra of transparency, accountability and implementation. Who will know better than him that an honest, competent and fearless bureaucrat, an endangered species, is worth his weight in gold and needs to be protected, empowered, encouraged and tasked for good governance? 

Economy

Corruption and development were two main planks on which last election was fought and won by Modi and his team. For this reason, Budget 2014 presented by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley was expected to be a trendsetter for Acche Din (Good days). But in the backdrop of poor economic parameters and likelihood of a deficient monsoon he thought it prudent to continue with what was good in earlier dispensation and bring some pragmatic changes Giving tax relief to senior citizens /middle class and continuing with welfare schemes for poor people, he has also accepted challenge to bring down fiscal deficit to 4.1%.To strike a balance between growth and inclusive development he has prepared a Pro- poor and pro-biz  cocktail with main ingredient of foreign investment -  FDI in railways (100%),  in defence (49%) and relaxing FDI norms in real estate sector for low cost housing. as Govt needs infusion of massive funds to create infrastructure and service welfare schemes for poor.

Administration

    Since taking charge on May 27, 2014 Modi Govt has moved with policy formulations to bring down food prices, reduce inflation, curb corruption and improve security to women. Passage of National Judicial Appointments Commission (NJAC) bill to ensure that only people with merit are appointed as judges to higher courts and   proposal to set up 1800 fast-track courts to speed up delivery of justice are such steps. Similarly, online green clearance for industrial and infra-structure projects and online monitoring of industrial waste will reduce human intervention and bring transparency. But real game-changers would be a slew of ambitious ventures like  ' Sagarmala ' (String of ports) project for development of India's ports, creating Special Economic Zones, providing rail, road, air, waterways connectivity with the hinterland with linkages of cold storage and warehousing facilities,  'PM Jan Dhan Yojna’ to help the poor open a bank account with debit card facility and insurance cover of Rs 1 lakh and several other benefits,  ' Digital India' aiming to connect 2.50 lakh village panchayats with high speed broadband connectivity by 2017, creation of 100 'Smart' cities, rejuvenation of ' Heritage Cities' and 'Make in India' drive to boost manufacturing sector. For quicker and inclusive growth  and to translate his great vision of  Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (Together with all, Development for all) into reality such job-intensive mega projects with enormous potential to provide direct benefit to millions of poor and middle class are better options than UPA government's dole-based and corruption- ridden welfare schemes like MNREGA, Mid-day meal which should be either restructured to plug 'leakages' or discontinued to save tax-payers money.

Independence Day Speech

Modi is a great communicator with people and took full advantage of this skill in his address to the nation from the ramparts of historic Lal Qila (Red Fort) on 15th Aug, 2014 His extempore speech delivered in a crisp, credible and home-spun language touched on many unpleasant issues plaguing India like rapes and women's safety, female foeticide, cleanliness and sanitation, communalism and casteism etc and would have won millions of hearts. Although some of his diehard fans may have been dismayed by the absence of belligerency in his speech, he rightly chose to speak the language of consensus and reconciliation by complimenting all previous governments, Prime Ministers and even State governments for country' development and assuring everyone that " he wants to move forward not on the basis of majority but on consensus". Calling himself a Pradhan Sevak (Prime servant) he praised bureaucrats for their calibre and competence and opposition members for their cooperation in the smooth functioning of Parliament. No show of bravado but plenty of confidence. His open confession - “I am an outsider to Delhi but got an insider view in last two months" added a dash of humour. 

Foreign Relations

Narendra Modi's first visit as PM to Bhutan (June 15-16), our friendliest neighbour, helped in cementing India's ' unique and special relationship' with her. He stated that ' strong and prosperous' India can help smaller countries in the region. His visit to attend 6th BRICS( Brazil,Russia,India,China and South Africa) summit in Brazil (July 15) gave him first lesson in the multi-lateral diplomacy. Chinese President Xi Jinping in his first meeting with Modi remarked cryptically that “when India and China meet the whole world watches". During his meeting with Russian President Putin, Modi hailed Russia as “our country's greatest friend”. Putin reciprocated by saying that both countries are “in full consensus on working together on the international stage and on matters of economic and defence cooperation" among others. But the crowning glory of the summit was creation of NDB(National Development Bank) by BRICS nations with an initial capital of US$ 50 billion, headqurters in Shanghai, an Indian as its first president and no veto power. On his Nepal visit (Aug 3- 4), first by an Indian PM since 1997  he made a positive impact on its people, leaders, and more importantly opposition Maoist leaders, eliciting tongue-in-cheek remark from China's state-run Xinhua Agency  that " although Modi's visit was successful and generated lot of goodwill but the soft loan of US$ 1 billion is insufficient".But the real expectations are from his forthcoming visits to Japan and USA and Jinping's visit to India all in a matter of four exciting weeks. Economic diplomacy is close to Modi's heart and he will get enough chance to earn his spurs during these crucial visits  An interesting month of diplomatic opportunities for all four countries. Let us see who gets what and from whom. Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj has proved to be a great asset to Modi and had fruitful visits to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Singapore and Vietnam.

Future

A fast learner Modi loves to convey his ideas through catchy phrases on special occasions. Sample these - 3 D’s (Democracy, Demography, Demand), the 3 S’s (Skill, Scale and Speed) and 5 T’s (Tradition, Talent, Tourism, Trade and Technology). He is also very methodical and his ' method' mannerisms look as real and convincing as the 'method' acting of famous Hollywood actors like Marlon Brando, De Niro and Daniel Day-Lewis. He may be grappling with hundred of complex issues but has uncanny ability to overcome them with the help of  dedicated bureaucrats and effective ministers and fulfil his promise of developing India on a war footing. Elevation of his confidant Amit Shah as the party's youngest president has given more power to his elbow and brought both the party and government on the same page.  Critics may scream, detractors (both inside and outside) may whine but Modi's grip is now stronger than their gripe. Unlike his predecessor he has both absolute power and total accountability. Coming back to governance, his government is doing well  by laying out a viable road map for all-round development and pushing hard for their completion at a break-neck speed. However,the real challenge lies in tackling the spectre of corruption. He will have to crack down on it with all power at his command. The earlier the better. Stinging judicial verdicts in big-ticket corruption cases involving crony capitalists,greedy politicians and corrupt officials give him a strong handle to deal with this social cancer.He is eminently suitable to accomplish this seemingly insuperable task for three reasons- his reputation as an honest and incorruptible politician, no family,friends or relatives to promote and his agenda to see a clean India, literally and metaphorically Come what may he has to keep his promise made in Kargil on Aug 12,2014 ' Na Khaoonga, Na Khane Dunga' ( Neither will I eat,nor I will let others eat) and move India from a low 94th rank among 177 corrupt nations to around 50 in the next 5 years.That will be a matchless achievement.  

The promised 'Happy Days' may not be here yet but his first 100 days in office  have been 'Mood Changer' and created an ambience of 'Happy Hours’ for millions of Indians. Things will look much brighter in a year or so.

Democracy's Grand Carnival: Indian Elections 2014

The largest parliamentary election in human history for which  814 million people, larger than Europe's population, including 23 million in the age group of 18-19 years are eligible to vote will come to an end next week. This mammoth exercise spread over 9 phases from 7 April to 12 May to elect 543 members for the 16th Lok Sabha is being supervised by India's Election Commission with the help of nearly 10 million civilian and security personnel, 1.4 million EVM (Electronic Voting Machines) at the 930,000 polling stations across the country.

        Though a record number of 1674 political parties including 6 national and 47 regional are in the race, the main electoral battle is between two formations NDA and UPA led by BJP and Congress respectively. As of now the Narendra Modi-led BJP, the main component of NDA seems to be far ahead of other parties in this electoral battle. If various opinion polls are to be believed, he is the star performer for the party getting support from a wide section of society except the minorities. Minorities rarely vote for BJP but projection of Modi as their Prime Ministerial candidate has been like throwing the cat among the pigeons to the largest minority in this country. Muslim clerics and Christian evangelists who have no love lost for Modi appear to have exhorted their followers to vote more resolutely against BJP in this election. Muslims have significant number of votes (ranging from 11% to over 35%) in over 218 parliamentary constituencies and it is generally assumed that since 1990's they have preferred "tactical voting" going for the best possible candidates from the so-called secular parties who could defeat the BJP candidates. In a similar vein, those rooting for Modi have made concerted efforts to consolidate anti-corruption and pro-development votes particularly among country's youth, upper castes, non-yadav OBCs and urban middle class in BJP's favour. Heavy polling in crucial states can be attributed to both the polarization factor and enthusiastic first-time voters.

        There has been palpable difference between the campaigning styles of main parties. The high-pitched election campaign spearheaded by Modi seems to have swamped his opponents. He has come a long way since the days of his slip-ups on history in Oct/Nov 2013 looking more confident, more relaxed. A dedicated and well-knit team of technocrats, researchers and stage managers, many of them from his home state have worked diligently to create "Brand Modi". His brilliantly choreographed speeches and interviews with friendly TV channels portray him as someone who, though, of humble origin yet risen so high on the sheer strength of his vision, incorruptibility and good governance. In the process he has acquired a pan-India image becoming first among the equals in his own party and captured the eyes of millions who think he can eradicate corruption, revive economy and fast-track development projects. His promise to create millions of jobs appears enticing to unemployed youth. Since becoming BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate in Sept 2013 tireless Modi has crisscrossed 25 states in the country, addressed 437 public meetings, 1350 innovative 3-D rallies/road shows and over 4000 ingenious chai pe charcha with Namo campaign, collecting groundswell of support for himself. A phenomenal accomplishment! His larger-than-life projection on a grand scale has certainly boosted the electoral prospects of NDA's rainbow coalition of 29  parties.

        A weak and uncharismatic leadership made things difficult for the ruling party haunted by economy's blue devils and djinn of corruption. Its supporters were disheartened when many sitting members declined to fight election and chose the safe route of Rajya Sabha. Inability to stitch fruitful alliances in UP, AP and Tamil Nadu increased its isolation. Priyanka's late entry in the election fray to protect the family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli showed desperation. But the biggest mistake was to engage Modi in a hand to hand fight by launching personal attacks on him. 

        This election will be remembered not only for the innovative use of digital technology on a high scale and money's overpowering role but also for the brazen abuse of 'freedom of speech'. Rabble-rousers cutting across the party lines disgraced themselves by bringing down the political discourse to an unprecedented low level. There was plenty of vitriol in their shallow speeches but very little room for a gentle barb, sharp wit, light humour or even plain decency - so essential for healthy political debates in a parliamentary democracy. Mud-slinging, character assassination, name-calling and all possible weapons of dirty politics were used to blacken one's opponent and whole country watched in utter disbelief. The ugly face of politicians and their controversial theatrics displayed on visual media lifted their TRP ratings and increased viewers disgust. There were very few politicians who didn't indulge in the game of muckraking. According to famous Greek dramatist Aristophanes (446 BC - 386 BC) the characteristics of a popular politician include "a horrible voice, bad breeding and a vulgar manner". A majority of campaigners did even better.

        Coming back to the elections, whatever may be the final tally on May 16, Modi-mania generated on the promising slogan of development and corruption-free governance will prevail over Modi-phobia created by the votaries of secularism. Congress would be lucky to score a century of seats while their main rival BJP would be well-placed to score a double century enough to ensure Modi a place in the sun. Among the other stakeholders, TMC,  AIDMK, TDP, TRS and BJD will improve on their 2009 performance while SP, JD(U), NCP and DMK  will  shrink. The new entrant AAP should get good votes for their gutsy style of campaigning but very few seats. By all reckoning, NDA will form the next government even if they fall short of the magic figure of 272 as more parties would love to jump on their bandwagon.

http://rksingh167.blogspot.in/2013/11/destination-delhi-2014.html

AAP's Music: Symphony of Hope or Cacophony of Despair

        AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) led by tenacious Arvind Kejriwal arrived on Indian political horizon with a bang on Dec 8, 2013 winning 28 out of 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly elections finishing behind BJP who got 32 seats. The vanquished party (Congress) in a tactical move, not liked by many Congressmen offered them unconditional support and Arvind Kejriwal became 7th Chief Minister of Delhi embarking on his maiden legislative journey amid great excitement of his supporters and grave concern of detractors.

        Getting to the chair was the easy part, it seems now, as problems started cropping up in quick succession mostly owing to their callowness, over-confidence and on few occasions  sheer insolence. The antics of Kejriwal and some of his ministerial colleagues suddenly elevated to power and drunk on the heady cocktail of ambition, arrogance and inexperience created a near mayhem in Delhi for two weeks of their rule and the media had a busy time. Bizarre incidents of travel by metro for oath ceremony, Janata darbar fiasco, controversy on Kejriwal's accommodation and security, vigilante-style functioning of his ministers, sitting on dharna by Chief Minister took the shine off from its stunning electoral debut. Reports in media of fake members joining the party and expulsion of a MLA who was denied ministerial berth further tarnished the fledgling party's image and may dissuade potential members.

        Leaving behind those nightmarish episodes, Kejriwal should focus on administration so that he can showcase his achievements of first 100 days in power- the usual honeymoon period allowed to a new government. As he does not have a magic lamp, he should set a modest target and focus on those items from his extensive laundry list which are less complicated and can be done within a short period. Apart from water, power and public transport, issues affecting the lives of common man like Govt hospitals/schools, roads, women's security, rain water harvesting should be on his menu. Rather than tinkering with the existing system, he could open up the system itself and show its functioning to the public using modern IT tools, something like an open kitchen. But he should refrain from conducting official business in maidans and stadiums instead of  Assembly and  Secretariat. Resorting to acts of symbolism, populism and gimmickry will not fetch his party extra votes and he may become all hat and no cattle. Unguarded comments (on Kashmir and Maoists), sweeping remarks (on corrupt politicians), indiscriminate announcements (on Khap panchayat) will spread confusion and bitterness. He will be lost in the warren of narrow vision if he tried his hands at too many things. Kejriwal would do well to remember the golden saying, "One thing at a time and that done well, is a very good rule as many can tell".

        A word about the man of the moment - Kejriwal started his career in 1989 with Tata Steel after finishing IIT, joined IRS in 1995, founded an NGO Parivartan in 1999 while still in Income Tax Department which he left in 2006, was associated with RTI, Jan Lok Pal movements, participated in Anna Hazare Movement in 2011 and parted ways to form Aam Aadmi Party in Nov 2012. He is young, courageous, street smart and media savvy but the way he fell out with his mentors like Aruna Roy and Anna Hazare and former comrades like Kiran Bedi betrays his individualistic streak.

        Kejriwal is not an 'Anarchist' and after becoming CM, he is no longer an 'Activist'. He should also not dream of bringing a political revolution in India because he lacks the vision, stature and charisma of intellectual giants from Trotsky (Permanent revolution - 1905) to JP (Total Revolution - 1974) who exhorted the masses to bring a revolutionary change in people's life but failed to bring the new dawn. Even movements like Arab Spring (2010) and Anna Hazare (2011) which engendered mass protests and generated great hope could not succeed in improving the living conditions of common man. As a full-fledged politician his priority should be to provide a clean government, devoid of functional anarchy, in Delhi. It would not be easy as both his unwilling accomplice (Congress) and those who missed the chair by a whisker (BJP) will make things difficult for him.

        To replicate the Delhi experiment in other parts of India, he would require a cadre-based party which may take years to build but that is the right way to go. A proper screening would eliminate fake members and prevent those trying to leap on its bandwagon. Past experience has shown that political leaders and parties take time to grow and mature. Today's strong regional parties like SP, BSP, AIDMK, TMC, TDP, BJD and their leaders have been in existence for decades. Drawn into the vortex of real politics, always a treacherous terrain, Kejriwal will need patience and nerve to play a long innings as in a 5-day test match rather than its shorter version of T-20. If AAP can win even a dozen seats in 2014 elections and about 5% popular votes on its own, people will forget its cacophonous beginning and hope for an amazing symphony in 2019. Failure to do so will merit soul-searching and taking AAP back to basics or disband it altogether and rejoin the biradari of activists. 

Also see: The Kejriwal phenomenon